Phillies Nation

Milestone Watch: 2010

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, February 11, 2010 11:00 AM

The football season is over, hockey and basketball are only now approaching the final quarter of their regular seasons, and pitchers and catchers are mere days from reporting to their Spring Training camp sites.

Oh, it’s time for baseball, all right.

With all due congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, the conclusion of the Super Bowl is usually just a signal that, yes, baseball really is that close. Well, to some of us it is, anyway. One thing I like to do prior to the start of every year is look for potential milestones; numbers that, despite being arbitrary and really no different from any other number, are nice, round, shiny checkboxes to mark off on a player’s career resume.

There aren’t too many historic or overly glamorous plateaus for members of this team to reach, as a great deal are still in their very early thirties or younger. They simply haven’t had the career length to compile 500 homers or 3,000 hits.

So, what Phillies players have milestones to reach in 2010? Let’s take a look at some numbers the players might reach in the coming season. Of course, injuries are always a possibility, so assume I note that caveat each time. These are all in no particular order:

• Chase Utley, 1,000 hits (currently at 978)

This one’s almost too easy. Utley got his 22nd hit on April 27 last year, a mere 18 games into the season. All with a sore hip, too. Then again, that was one torrid start he got off to. I’ll expect something slightly more conservative, and look for hit No. 22 a little later.

• Jimmy Rollins, 1,000 runs scored (currently at 945)

Even with an OBP as low as Rollins’s was in 2009, he still managed to cross the plate 100 times in 155 games. While it’s unlikely to think Rollins will hit as poorly again in 2010, it’s also worth contemplating Charlie Manuel’s new supposed conviction to giving the studs a few extra days off. With the great hitters behind him, he’ll cross 55 before the season is too old. He crossed 55 runs in his 80th game in 2009, back on July 20.

• Raul Ibanez, 1,000 RBI (currently at 887)

Hitting behind Chase Utley, all things are possible, especially when it comes to RBI. Raul will need 113 ribbies in 2010 to cross this plateau, but if Ryan Howard has a bit of a power outage, Ibanez could easily scoop up his collateral RBI. A total of 113 would be his second-best total, trailing only his 2006 season in Seattle.

• Jimmy Rollins, 100 triples (currently at 95)

Rollins hasn’t hit fewer than five triples in any season of his career, save a 14-game stint at the very beginning of his career back in 2000. Even though he’s aging, he sure doesn’t show many signs of slowing. Even though five triples really aren’t that easy to come by, Rollins should almost certainly get No. 100 here in 2010.

• Roy Halladay, 150 wins (currently at 148)

Laughable. Halladay will start opening day against the Nationals, then likely faces the Astros, Nationals again, Braves and Mets in the four starts to follow. Even with the bit of uncertainty lingering in the air above the Phillies’ bullpen, I’d feel pretty good about Halladay notching at least two wins in his first five starts. You should, too.

• Jamie Moyer, 4,000 innings pitched (currently at 3,908.2)

With the announcement earlier Wednesday that Moyer would be the fifth starter in the Phils’ rotation entering the 2010 season, this milestone seems a bit more feasible for Jamie to reach. Should he lose his grip on that spot to Kyle Kendrick, Drew Carpenter or any other number of viable candidates, things may get a bit murkier. Until then, though, it looks as if Jamie will get the remaining 91.1 innings onto his record after17-18 starts, if not a bit sooner. Remember: the man is 47.

Less glamorous milestones:

• Jimmy Rollins, 5,000 outs made (currently at 4,532)

A by-product of leading off so often is that with more at-bats come more outs. During his MVP campaign in 2007, Rollins actually led the Majors in outs made with 527. He fell one short of that ignominious mark in 2009, all in 53 fewer plate appearances. Obviously, we can probably write off Jimmy’s 2009 as a blip; he shouldn’t perform that poorly again, you’d expect. However, Rollins needs 468 outs to crack 5,000 for his career, and has exceeded that 468-count figure in eight of the last nine years. The only exception, of course, was 2008, when Rollins played in just 137 games.

What would Jimmy need to do to postpone reaching the 5k peak? Well, assuming he gets the 717 plate appearances he’s averaged since his first full season, he would need to reach base 250 times for an OBP of .349. Funnily enough, that’s exactly his career high, a mark he achieved in 2008.

• Raul Ibanez, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 906)

Ibanez has only recently morphed into a high-strikeout player. Reasons for this are something I don’t know and am now interested in finding out (it could just be age), but it makes reaching 94 strikeouts for this season much more likely than it would in, say, 2002. Ibanez has had no fewer than 97 Ks in each of the last five seasons, but if he puts up power numbers even somewhat comparable to 2009, we’ll gladly accept that, I’m sure.

• Ryan Howard, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 878)

Sadly, Ryan Howard hasn’t played long enough to soften the blow of reaching this milestone. He needs 122 punchouts to hit No. 1,000, and has struck out at least 181 times in each of the past four years. We may yet see both Howard and Ibanez cross the 1,000 mark here in 2010.

Milestones to keep an eye on for 2011:

• Jimmy Rollins, 2,000 hits (currently at 1,629)

He’s not getting 371 hits in one season – boy wouldn’t that be something – but as his 2011 option has already been picked up, it seems Jimmy will have a good shot to get his 2,000th hit in red pinstripes. He’ll need an average of 186 hits in 2010 and ‘11, but he’s passed that four times before. He’ll certainly come close and definitely reach 2,000 by 2012.

• Chase Utley, 150 HBP (currently at 107)

It’s a wonder the man hasn’t developed a Notre Dame-like hunch of bruising on his right shoulder, turning “away” from pitches that come too far inside. Hey, it’s part of his strategy. I’ll live with hits to the back and shoulder, so long as they stay away from his hand.

Looking at you, John Lannan.

• Ryan Howard, 1,000 hits (currently at 750)

RyGuy just isn’t a 250-hit player. He’s just not Ichiro. But he does hit enough to get to 1,000 sometime in 2011, for sure.

• Cole Hamels, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 686)

Needing 314 Ks, Cole could be at 1,000 strikeouts before he turns 28. That doesn’t put him on pace to challenge Nolan Ryan or even have a likely shot at 3,000, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive. Hamels is currently second on the Phillies’ all-time leaderboard for strikeouts per nine (albeit in a shorter amount of time). The man he trails? Curt Schilling, who didn’t reach his 1,000th K until he was ten seasons into his career and 30 years old.

Am I saying Cole is the next Curt? Nope. I can’t possibly know that, but Schilling finished his career with 3,116 strikeouts, and Cole is (technically) ahead of his curve right now. It’s at least fun to think about.

• Chase Utley, 200 home runs (currently at 161)
  Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice. Prediction: 2011.

Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice.

Chase will probably play in his 1,000th game in 2010 (he’s 109 away), and among second basemen who have played 1,000-plus games since 1901, only twelve have ever hit 200 homers. Jeff Kent holds the second base record at 377, a mark Utley could challenge in the latter stages of his career.

Any milestones that I’ve missed? Do you think any current Phils have a shot at greater benchmarks? Let’s hear what you have to say.

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The Total WAR Project, Part V: Los Angeles Dodgers

Posted by Paul Boye, Fri, February 05, 2010 02:20 PM

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts Mike and I began back at The Phrontiersman. In each post, we take a look at the biggest competition the Phillies will likely face – within their division, the National League and the American League – and evaluate their offseasons. Have these teams improved? Have they weakened? How good are the Phillies, in terms of WAR, in relation to their closest competition? Well, that last one will be reserved for the final post in the series. For now, we’re setting our sights on our competitors.

We’re using WAR – Wins Above Replacement – exclusively here, as it contains both offensive and defensive evaluations combined into one single, easy-to-use statistic. There are a few iterations of WAR, none differing greatly, and we use the one supplied by Fangraphs for our numbers and projections.

Typically, these posts begin with some sort of allegorical war story to tie in with the team we’re about to evaluate. You want a war story? Go read some of the comments on the last entry in the series, posted by Mike on the Cardinals.

In this episode, we’ll be taking a look at the National League runners-up in two straight seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Shall we?

(more…)

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Farewell, And Thank You

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, June 26, 2009 07:00 AM

Hello Nation,

As some of you may have seen, I’ve been away from the site for a week. And during the week absence I came to some conclusions about my future; in prioritizing my life, I have realized writing at Phillies Nation can no longer be a priority.

So this is my farewell.

My very first post at Phillies Nation came Dec. 17, 2007. In the post, I wrote about how the Phillies needed to take charge in the 2008 season:

The Phils are rumored to be close to signing Geoff Jenkins. That’s a start. There are still pitching holes to solve. They must grab another starter and a back-end reliever. If it takes Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman, so be it. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are in their absolute primes. Cole Hamels is a stud. Brett Myers will likely put up good numbers. There’s enough of a supporting cast to carry these guys to 85 wins again, but they need the three pieces left to get them to 95.

Ownership frugality aside, there’s potential for the Phillies to run away with the city’s heart. Now is the time. Front office — you’re the best team in the city. You won. Now go for the jugular.

Who knew my fist-out proclamation would show true less than a year later? I had written at a previous blog that the 2008 Phillies had the opportunity to accomplish special goals, but did I really believe it then? Did any of us really believe that team’s capabilities? Heck, I didn’t completely believe it in September 2008. Deep inside, we’re all skeptics.

After that initial post I struggled to find a voice. I bashed the team’s signing of So Taguchi (in retrospect, kudos to me) and wrote a horrible breakdown of the Durbin signing. It took some time, but I found a groove that I rode for quite a while. I visited Clearwater for the first time, really immersing myself in my love of the Phillies.

Then tragedy struck.

I’ll never forget the outpouring of well wishes and thoughts I received after losing my home to an apartment fire in April 2008. During that trying time, the Phillies were my crutch, and you all were my eyes and ears. That’s when I learned the true value of Phillies Nation — that no matter what, people were behind you, looking out for you. That feeling rose as the Phillies made their annual late-season run, accentuated by our bus trip during Labor Day 2008. The Nation was growing, both literally and figuratively. And in a whirl, the Phils were division champions, then league champions. Then world champions.

Often I scroll back at the posts I wrote during that cherished run of October 2008. I poured a lot into my writing then, trying desperately to summarize my feelings — and the feelings of the Nation — in small swatches of text. I’d like to believe I had some success bridging words to emotions, and I hope you readers felt what I was attempting to convey.

I remember my nerves during the two parts of game five: Telling everyone “This is the night” on Oct. 29, 2008 was difficult — even when the Phillies were 3.5 innings from a championship, I struggled to be certain. As always, I felt skeptical. But I knew, for the Nation, I had to put on my game face. There were many times I put on my game face, just for the Nation.

I remember the victory itself, leaping and shrieking, calling my father and crying loudly. There was no feeling quite like that in my life. And I bet that if I didn’t follow the team urgently throughout the 2008 season, I wouldn’t have felt that incredible. Sure I would’ve leaped and shrieked, but I wouldn’t have felt a part of something bigger, of a cause that meant more than just sheer fandom.

I remember the parade — the culmination of our work as fans. I most remember the perfectly beautiful weather — 73 degrees, sunshine without a cloud in the sky. People as far as the eye could see clad in red. Smiles on everyone’s faces. Bells, applause, whistles, screams. I trekked on foot from 30th Street Station to the sports complex, absorbing every smiling face and wide eye. Some of these people had been fans for five minutes. Some had been fans for 50 years. And I felt like a part of each one — truly, it was a Phillies Nation.

Since that parade we’ve gone through the same annual emotions: Hope, determination, pride, anger, resentment, disappointment. We question a team that has already proven its mettle, merely because we can, merely because we are fans. As long as they make millions, we can say whatever we will. And that’s the freedom of the fan; it’s what makes Philadelphians a cut aside the rest. We’re brash, we’re direct, we’re furiously passionate.

Since Dec. 17, 2007 I’ve played the role of passionate fan very seriously. In a way, I’ve represented the fan. That came to fruition with a television appearance on a Mets pregame show. But since that moment, my thoughts have led me to this script.

Is there a future in sports blogging? Sure, and hundreds of scribes have cashed their independent blogging efforts into full glory. But that’s not my future. And I have come to grips with that reality.

But I will always be a Phillies fan. I will always root loudly for the team that has gripped my hand since I was a very small child. I will attend games and opine about the state of the team, and I will lurk and possibly comment once in a while. I will always be a Phillies fan.

So thank you. Thank you for giving — your eyes, your time and your fandom to my words. I appreciate it more than you’ll ever know. Keep reading Phillies Nation, keep rooting for the Phils and keep being the best fans in baseball.

Best,
Tim Malcolm

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Video: Tim On SNY’s ‘Pre Game Live’

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, June 12, 2009 02:34 PM

Tim was on SNY’s “Mets Pre Game Live” to talk about Phillies fans’ mentality in regards to the Mets and the National League East division race.

Thanks again to Matt Cerrone, SNY and MetsBlog.

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Watch Tim Tonight On SNY

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, June 11, 2009 02:20 PM

Phillies Nation will makes its television debut tonight.

New Yorkers: Watch KFC Pre Game Live (Mets Pre Game Live) at 6:30 p.m. tonight, where SNY’s Matt Cerrone (creator of MetsBlog) interviews me in a special segment from Citi Field.

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Video: Tim On New York Baseball Today

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, May 22, 2009 05:11 PM

I was a guest on New York Baseball Today, hosted by Ted Berg of SNY.tv and MetsBlog.com.

We previewed the Phillies-Yankees series this weekend at Yankee Stadium.

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Today: Bus Trip To D.C.

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sat, May 16, 2009 10:29 AM

Phillies Nation is on its annual bus trip to Washington, D.C. to see the Phillies take on the Nationals at 7 p.m. tonight at Nationals Park. Beforehand, it’s a pregame at Citizens Bank Park and the ride south. Then a tailgate party in D.C. before the game. We’ll be checking in with game one of the doubleheader in the meantime.

Use this thread to discuss Brad Lidge’s struggles, the reniassance of Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz, Chase Utley’s current slump or anything else.

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Phils-Mets Viewing Party At Grey Lodge

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, April 30, 2009 03:26 PM

You want Phillies-Mets? Wanna watch it with other Phillies fans in a great atmosphere? How about watching it with Phillies Nation?

Tomorrow night we’ll be at the Grey Lodge to view Phils-Mets. The Lodge will have $3 specials on Sly Fox’s Pikeland Pils and Phoenix Pale Ale.

So join us tomorrow at around 7 p.m. for the game.

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Follow Us On Twitter

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, March 25, 2009 12:30 PM

On this fair off day, a good reminder to follow us on Twitter.

This is the Phillies Nation Twitter.
This is the personal Twitter of yours truly.

Opinion is at a premium.

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D.C. Bus Trip Waiting List

Posted by R.C. Cowie, Wed, March 18, 2009 10:38 AM

We’ve received some emails of inquiry about the waiting list for the forth, and final, bus being added to the Phillies Nation Bus Trip to D.C. on May 16th. We are aware that there are existing problems with submitting any requests to add you and your party at this time. The problem should be fixed by tonight when we arrive back from an amazing week in Clearwater, Florida. Until then, you can submit your potential itinerary via email and I will personally add you to the list and you won’t have to resubmit any information . Below you can copy and paste the nessessary information fields into the text box of an email and send it to me. I can answer any additional questions you may have as well at that time.

Hope to see you on the trip!

Name:

Email:

Number of guests, including yourself:

Email Rob Cowie at rob@philliesnation.com. You can expect a prompt confirmation and response email from me usually within 20 minutes.

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Coming Tomorrow: The Cole Hamels Interview

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, March 03, 2009 08:30 AM

We asked you a while back for some questions to ask to Cole Hamels, and now we’ll have the full Cole Hamels interview tomorrow at Phillies Nation.

Why is Cole getting involved in third-world countries? What does he really think of his curveball? And how much does he want 20 wins? Find out at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

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The Kevin Stocker Apprecation Thread

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, March 02, 2009 04:00 PM

Kevin Stocker
Shorstop
1993-1997

Career w/Phillies: .261 AVG / 14 HR / 172 RBI / 30 SB

The Phillies weren’t happy with Juan Bell as their everyday shortstop in 1993, so they ditched him for a young kid with a hot bat and fine glove. Kevin Stocker played his heart out in that ‘93 season, helping the Phillies win the National League. After that season, he remained a great shortstop, hitting .254 in 1996 with five homers and 41 RBI. He finished top 10 in hit by pitch twice in his career. Though all that is great, his true worth comes with his leadership. Off the field, he owns an Emerald City Smoothie franchise in Washington. That he could pick off runners from deep shortstop and then keep the state of Washington healthy through delicious fruity concoctions just shows his versatility. Though his career ended too short, he is truly one of the Phillies greatest players, and absolutely the second-greatest shortstop in franchise history.

Comment: Not a member of the 100 Greatest Phillies. Made you look, though.

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Last Call For Mailbag

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sat, February 28, 2009 07:10 PM

Last call to send me a question in our mailbag. Send your question or comment (on anything) to tim@philliesnation.com

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Send Me Your Questions

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, February 27, 2009 03:30 PM

Sunday is our first monthly mailbag, so please, send your Phillies and baseball-related questions to tim@philliesnation.com

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Follow Us, Me On Twitter

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, February 19, 2009 05:30 PM

Do you tweet? You should.

First, Phillies Nation has a Twitter at twitter.com/philliesnation

Follow us.

Second, I have a Twitter at twitter.com/TimothyMalcolm

Follow me.

The PN Twitter will update with our RSS feed. I’ll chime in from time to time with thoughts, rambles, whatever else I’m thinking. All Phillies related. My personal Twitter, meanwhile, will give you insight in my own mind, sometimes Phillies-related, sometimes not. But all times hysterically interesting. And if you haven’t signed up for Twitter, do sign up. It’s what all the cool kids are doing.

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