Phillies Nation

Report: Seanez May Replace Happ

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 09:26 AM

David Murphy reports Rudy Seanez may replace JA Happ on the postseason roster. Happ didn’t pitch against the Brewers in the NLDS; Seanez has been staying with the team, along with catcher Lou Marson.

Seanez, who pitched for the Dodgers last year, went 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA.

I never understood why Happ was on the 25-man anyway. Seanez is the veteran arm, and a righty, and the need for a righty between Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey is more important than a third lefty. As much as I like Happ, Seanez is the smart play in the postseason. As an example, look to game three against Milwaukee — Seanez could’ve been the guy between Jamie Moyer and the rest of the bullpen; instead, Charlie Manuel had to fumble with Clay Condrey and an overuse of Scott Eyre.

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NLCS Preview Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 02:00 PM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez

Then there’s Manny.

About

Yes, Manny Ramirez made this a different team. From April to June the Dodgers hit 53 home runs. From July to September: 84. Ramirez had a lot to do with that — he hit 17 after joining the Dodgers. Ramirez gives the Dodgers exactly what they were lacking: a consistent extra-base hit machine.

And that’s precisely what the Phillies have to stop.

Of course, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp are important. And so are Jeff Kent, Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal. But Manny is the king. Manny will take this team where he wants to take them. If he hits, they’ll win. Simple as that.

Case in point: When the Dodgers swept the Phillies at Chavez Ravine, Ramirez had 5 RBI. When the Phils swept the Dodgers at the Bank, Ramirez had 0 RBI.

Trying To Stop Him

So how do you keep him from driving in runs? The first, most obvious answer, is to get the guys out in front of him. As I said earlier, the Phils need to shut down Furcal and Martin. The second, next most obvious answer, is to walk Ramirez. Of course, with multiple men on base, you’re running the risk of letting a young kid beat you, and that’s a huge momentum error. The third, next next most obvious answer, is to pitch around him and hope he swings badly. But he won’t. Though he has 124 strikeouts, only 42 are in the second half. Since joining Los Angeles, Manny has suddenly remembered how to hit a baseball.

Okay, so how can you make him record outs? Well, first off, Ramirez is hitting .373 when he puts the ball in play (.407 in the second half), so good luck. But, wait, there are ways.

Pitch Him Here

According to his Dodger Stadium, Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park hit charts, he has more trouble getting hits into right field, and will hit into a lot of outs on the left side of the infield. That would mean the best places to pitch him are belt-inside, and low and away (where he’d try to get the barrel under the ball). And his hot zones show he’s “just” a .279 hitter belt-inside, and a .282 hitter low and away (everywhere else is fire-red). As the Phils own a couple pitchers who dance in the strike zone, it’s possible for the balls to hit their spots and Manny to come up early or late.

But here’s the kicker. While it seems the best way to pitch Ramirez is by dancing, power pitchers have it much easier. These guys (who tend to walk more, but also strike out more) have held Ramirez to a .265 average, while finesse pitchers (guys who dance around the zone) have received a .382 knocking against him. RBI totals are also as contrasting.

With that last part said, this shouldn’t surprise:

• Cole Hamels hasn’t been hit too badly, at a .250 clip.
• Brett Myers has held Ramirez to .158, but all three hits are extra-base hits. And he has walked Ramirez five times.
• Jamie Moyer has been owned to a .340 average. In 53 at bats, Ramirez has taken Moyer yard 10 times. Moyer does have 12 strikeouts against him.
• Then there’s Joe Blanton. Ramirez has a .560 average in 25 at bats. Yet just two of the 14 hits are for extra bases.

So power pitchers Hamels and Myers should fare better against Ramirez, as long as they throw strikes. Moyer and Blanton? Grab a glove. Luckily Moyer and Blanton match up well with the free swingers around Ramirez, so they’ll have to do their best in those spots.

No Relief

As for relievers? Ramirez has put Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin and Scott Eyre all in his book. And Eyre should not face Ramirez — Manny has torched him, 4-for-4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI. If anyone in the pen should get Manny it’s Madson (.222). Brad Lidge, by the way, struck out Ramirez the only time he ever faced him.

Final Word

I decided to write a lot about Ramirez because, and you can’t hide this, he is the key to this series. Keep him off the board and the Phils should win their sixth NL crown. While it’s important to stop the top of the order, one Manny swing can change the complexion of the series. To beat him, pitchers will have to fire strikes at him, and in his cold zones (belt-inside, low and away). Walking him helps, but you’re taking a gamble either way. Late, the Phils may walk him every time, unless No. 63 or No. 54 are on the hill. And I wouldn’t mind that. They cannot … cannot … let No. 99 beat them.

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The Utley Unknown Continues To Plague Phils

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 12:37 PM

As a counter piece to my NLCS preview of the Dodgers offense, I want to mention the struggles of the Phillies most important hitter, Chase Utley.

During the playoffs, Utley has slumped mightily:
.133 AVG / 0 HR / 2 RBI / 1 R / .235 OBP / .200 SLG

That’s poor. Factor in that his two-RBI double could’ve been a catch, and you’re looking at a horrendous four-game split. Of course, it is four games, and Utley has time to make up the poor play, but I’m not expecting a big turnaround.

In the postseason for his career, Utley is just a .154 hitter, slugging .192. While a small sample size still, it tells me he might shrink in the spotlight. Then again, it’s not as if he has bad numbers in big situations for his career:

Late and close: .277 AVG / .392 OBP / .481 SLG
Two outs, RISP: .289 AVG / .396 OBP / .505 SLG
Innings 7-9: .310 AVG / .400 OBP / .531 SLG

So overall, Utley has proven clutch enough, yet in the postseason, he shrinks. We can always turn back to the injury possibility, which is one we love turning to, but a .133 average?

To be honest, I’m stumped. When I watch Utley out there, I see a guy who’s pulling off on the ball, getting out in front, losing a little balance. It’s possible he is pressing, and it’s also possible he’s overcompensating for his hip.

What Utley needs to do is get on base any way he can. He tried it in game four, acting as if he got hit by a pitch (and he may have, replays showed). If he’s not completely confident in his swing, he needs to get on base. And maybe he needs to move up to the two-hole, sliding Shane Victorino to the three-hole. That way Utley can just get on base and advance innings, not try and win games. Because right now, he’s not even close.

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Eyre Feels Welcomed In Philadelphia

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 11:30 AM

Rich Hoffman has a very good, anecdotal piece about Scott Eyre in today’s Daily News. Eyre says he’s sad some of his Cub friends were eliminated from the playoffs, but that emotion is quickly washed by joy because he’s in Philadelphia.

Moreover, he starts to break, close to tears, talking about his reclamation as a late-innings reliever. Back in Chicago he was reduced to waiver trash because of an injury and two poor performances, post-injury.

The most interesting part of the piece is Eyre’s recollection of the better half of 2007, when Piniella mispronounced his name … and meant it.

“Lou called me the wrong name to my face. He called me ‘Stevie Ire.’ I’m sorry, that’s wrong. The only thing I wish is that he never one time said, ‘Hey, that’s my bad.’ It was just kind of accepted, just funny to him. Me, personally, I would have liked an apology. If I had called somebody the wrong name for three months — and I don’t know if he did it on purpose; who knows? — I think I would have said, ‘Hey, that’s my bad for messing up your name.’”

Wow. We know about Piniella’s gruff exterior, and maybe that’s part of the reason the Cubs were so tight against the Dodgers. Then you look at Charlie Manuel, who said — in a piece about Eyre — that he makes sure to talk to every player before leaving the clubhouse. Is there something there? I think so.

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NLCS Preview Part I : The Offense … Excluding Manny

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 10:00 AM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part I : The Offense … Excluding Manny

2008 Los Angeles Dodgers
.264 / 700 R / 137 HR / 271 2B / 29 3B / 543 BB / 1032 K / 126 SB / .333 OBP / .399 SLG

Probable Lineup
Rafael Furcal - SS
Russell Martin - C
Manny Ramirez - LF
Andre Ethier - RF
James Loney - 1B
Matt Kemp - CF
Blake DeWitt - 2B
Casey Blake - 3B

On The Bench
Danny Ardoin - C
Nomar Garciaparra - 1B/3B/SS
Jeff Kent - 1B/2B
Pablo Ozuna - 2B
Angel Berroa - 2B/SS
Juan Pierre - OF

About

Before Manuel Aristedes Ramirez joined the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team was 54-54. Since Ramirez has been on board, the Dodgers are 30-24, not exactly the model of greatness, but certainly a better team. And certainly, Ramirez is the main reason for that resurgence.

In his 53 National League games, Ramirez hit .396 with 17 home runs, 53 runs batted in, and, yes, two stolen bases. He has also single-handedly brought braids back to Hollywood for the first time since Britney Spears rocked them. Yeah, Manny has done it all.

But the Dodgers offense is not just about Ramirez. It’s also about young hitters (Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Blake DeWitt) and veteran mainstays (Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Jeff Kent). With Ramirez, all of these guys contribute to a very potent, versatile hitters row.

Start Up Top

If there is a goal for Phillies pitchers, it’s to keep the top of the Dodgers order off the basepaths. Their top-two is Furcal and Martin. Furcal returned from injury just in time to heat up in the playoffs, and he’ll supply the same kind of versatile spark Jimmy Rollins gives the Phils. Martin, meanwhile, is a good hitter, a Jayson Werth-type player who will get on base, cause havoc, and hit a couple longballs, too. If the Phils can halt Furcal and Martin, Ramirez won’t get big chances.

Behind The Basher

And behind Ramirez lies some promise. While Kemp, Ethier and Loney are talented young hitters, they’ve slumped in the postseason, likely pressing because of inexperience. Still, one has to be warned. Ethier is a 20-homer hitter with a .300 average. Kemp is practically a mirror image. And Loney, while lacking power, is a scary spray hitter capable of doing damage at any time.

Two Sides

The inexperience factor is huge for the Phils. Overall, the Dodgers don’t strike out (except Kemp, who whiffed 153 times in 2008), but don’t walk (except Martin, who had 90 in 2008). They’re free swingers. That’s a big advantage for Phillies pitchers, who rely more on savvy, timing and fielding.

That said, the Dodgers experienced bats might wreak the most havoc on Phils pitching. If anyone will carry no jitters in Los Angeles, it’s Kent, and Blake, and Garciaparra, and Juan Pierre — all of whom have extensive playoff experience.

Oh yeah, and then there’s Manny.

Final Word

The Phillies have given up 8.9 hits per game, which is mediocre. Despite this, they won’t give up as many runs. That plays well against Los Angeles, who will hit the ball. The key to the series for Phillies pitchers is to avoid walking batters. It’s not hard — these guys just don’t walk that much. That bend-not-break strategy rings true for Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, who have given up about a hit per inning, but just a walk every three.

If the Phils can limit walks and position pitches well, they’ll be fine. Moreover, the Brewers only had four extra-base hits against Phillie pitching, so if they can limit Los Angeles’ extra baggers, it’s in the bag.

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Note: Seven-Part NLCS Preview Ahead

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 09:45 AM

Starting today, read my seven-part preview of the National League Championship Series.

Part I : The Offense … Excluding Manny
Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez
Part III : A Stacked Rotation
Part IV : The Pen’s The Thing
Part V : Joe And Smoothies
Part VI : From The Other Side
Part VII : Prediction

I’ll post parts one and two today.

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Stairs Celebrates Victory From Distance

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, October 06, 2008 03:07 PM

Digging deeper, I found this nice article about Matt Stairs by the National Post in Canada. Stairs, a Canadian, was happy for his teammates winning the NLDS yesterday, but in more of a back seat mode:

“I’m and older guy, I don’t go crazy. I like to enjoy watching the guys have fun.”

Stairs was acquired before the waiver deadline in a trade with Toronto. The Phils gave the Blue Jays left-hander Fabio Castro. Stairs provides the Phils a third lefty bench bat, but someone who can crank up a home run at will. Jimmy Rollins appreciated the move:

“I got to see a lot of Matt Stairs in an Oakland uniform, just being from the Bay Area and I’ve always known him as a professional hitter. He’s a strong guy, he takes that big swing, the first one is always for the fans. Then he settles in and takes the rest for the team.”

Rollins added Stairs offers pointers to many of the Phils hitters.

Good to see Stairs get some admiration. He has been a nice little piece to this 25-man roster. Go back a year and think about who the Phils were carrying on the bench — Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez, Rod Barajas. Now look at Stairs. Nice to have that veteran presence who can definitely get it done.

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Commentary: It’s The Best Time Of Year

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, October 06, 2008 11:49 AM

October 6, 2008, and the Phillies are still playing baseball.

Like that? Yeah, I do, too.

They’ll start Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park, the 45,000-plus screaming fans (are you one of them?) waving towels and generally acting insane. FOX’s cameras will be all over the place, and Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (for my money, still tops nationally) will be calling the action.

All the eyes of the world will be focused on the Phillies and Dodgers. The storylines — while not eye-popping — are plentiful. For the Phils, it’s about proving themselves as a burgeoning dynasty. Are Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers worthy of a world championship? Can Pat Burrell come out a winner in potentially his final season as a Phillie? Will the city break its 25-year drought? For the Dodgers, it’s about vengeance. Is Joe Torre really the magic potion needed to go all the way? Can Manny Ramirez go out as the best player of his time? Are the young Dodgers ready for the spotlight?

There’s a lot to digest with this series, and certainly, it’ll be fun. These two teams are very evenly matched. They boast great pitching staffs, inexperienced but potent offenses, and a heck of a lot of tenacity and grit. They could make a very entertaining NLCS.

Today we reflect on, so far, a fantastic season that isn’t quite finished. No, just as there were stories to be told after the division win, there are still stories out there. The celebration after yesterday’s division series win? A little bit more subdued. Yes, I cheered and called my family members, but was it a release? Was it vindication? Elation? Nah. A little was missing — there is more to do.

Tomorrow I will start a seven-part preview of the NLCS with a heavy look at the opponent. Meanwhile, we’ll count down to Thursday’s game one with the usual news and features.

This is certainly the best time of the season. The leaves are turning bright oranges, reds and yellows. Up here in New England, the chilly air turns days into excursions, nights into warm escapes. The air smells fresh and natural. The atmosphere is ripe for change. It’s the perfect time. And what do you know, we can still cheer on the Phils.

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NLCS Schedule: Leave Work Early Friday

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, October 06, 2008 10:04 AM

The tentative NLCS schedule has been released. Rumblings about an early Friday start?

Game 1 - Philadelphia - Thursday - 8:15 p.m.
Game 2 - Philadelphia - Friday - 4:15 p.m.
Game 3 - Los Angeles - Sunday - 8:15 p.m.

So there you go. (Note: From Todd Zolecki’s notes. Things may change depending on the AL series.) Doesn’t really make sense to me that Friday’s game is at 4:15. Fox will lose the entire West Coast audience so TBS can have — likely — a Boston and Tampa audience for primetime? Ridiculous.

And Sunday’s game can’t be earlier? Like 6:15?

I was hoping that with the LCS I wouldn’t have to find some way to avoid working during a game. Ugh. Thanks, Major League Baseball.

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The Day After: Pitching Made It Possible

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, October 06, 2008 08:48 AM

The Phillies dispatched the Brewers, 3-1, to take the best-of-five National League Division Series. How they did it — pitching, pitching, pitching.

They say pitching and defense carries you deep into the postseason, and that’s no joke. The Phils surrendered just nine runs in the four-game set, holding the Crew to 26 hits while walking 10 (five of those walks came in the game three loss, proof that walks were the Phils’ worst enemy). And the great performances were across the spectrum.

It started with the ace, Cole Hamels, who established himself in a big game. His wizardry of the Milwaukee offense set the tone for the series — throw strikes and keep them off balance, and you’ll win. Backing him was Brett Myers, who played the same game in a fine game-two performance. And in his most inspired outing yet, Joe Blanton silenced the Crew in six innings. Even Jamie Moyer, who was victim to a high pitch count and a few walks, kept the Phils in his game by wiggling out of a couple jams.

The bullpen was huge. Brad Lidge scared us in game one, but he shut down Milwaukee in the other two wins. Behind him was Ryan Madson, who allowed a run on three hits in four innings. While you can’t really pin an MVP on any player in a five-game series, Madson was heavily involved and did his job, earning big praise. JC Romero made a one-pitch cameo in the series, but it was a big pitch, as it defused Prince Fielder in a big eighth-inning spot.

Of course, Fielder and some of the other Brewers contributed to the Phils great pitching by playing so poorly. While JJ Hardy hit .429, and Ryan Braun hit .313, the Brew Crew was paltry at the plate. They couldn’t bring home runners in big spots, and worse, they had four extra-base hits (the Phils had 17 extra-base hits). That won’t get it done.

Were the Phillies lucky the Brewers couldn’t hit? Maybe. But Hamels would’ve defeated anyone in game one, and Myers probably would’ve done enough to win game two, regardless. As for Blanton, he was given a nice safety net, and he took advtange. Against any team, the Phils would’ve won this series through its pitching.

As for the NLCS? The Dodgers aren’t the Brewers: They can hit anything. The pitching staff better be ready.

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