SIGNING CARLOS RUIZ TO 3 YR/$8.85 MILLION EXTENSION

When details of this contract extension first sprung, I really thought Chooch had parlayed a solid postseason into a three-year deal. To the initial eye, it looked like Amaro might have bid against himself, something he has done during his GM tenure before. However, like any responsible blogger/columnist/beerman, whatever you want to call me, I did my homework. Broke down some numbers. Compared some stats. Examined some contracts.

Ruiz will never be Joe Mauer. Hell, Carlos will never be Brian McCann. However, his on base percentage ranked third among full-time catchers in the National League at .355. Did you know that his .355 clip ranked higher than Raul Ibanez last year? Factor in the mere 39 strikeouts that Chooch accounted for and it is clear to see that the Phillies bottom of the order had a bat that could get the ball in play and help turn the lineup over.

However, it wasn’t Ruiz’s bat that garnered his new multi-millionaire status. Not many catchers in baseball can command a pitching staff like Ruiz can. Chooch can block the plate with the best of them, allowing only one ball to pass by him last season.

When it comes to holding runners, Ruiz allowed the fewest stolen bases of any catcher who started 100 games with 61 swipes allowed. He managed to throw out 23 attempted base runners as well.

In an era where the top catchers are seemingly going nowhere, and after trading away any and all catching prospects that they might have had, the Phillies locked up a very solid piece of the team at a very fair rate.

BEERMAN’S GRADE ON RUIZ RESIGNING: A-

Who else would make a good footballer – maybe Raul at linebacker or Ryan Howard at fullback?

According to Daily Sports Online, the Phillies signed Shigetoshi Yamakita and Naoyo Okamoto to minor league deals.  They each spent 2009 with the Shonan Searex, a minor league team of the Yokohama Bay Stars.  Both players are left-handed pitchers.

Yamakita, 32, posted a 2.47 ERA in 27 innings.  Okamoto, 26, had a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings.

UPDATE (Feb 7, 1:50 PM): Todd Zolecki tweets “Contrary to reports, the Phillies haven’t signed any Japanese pitchers.”  Basically, the Phillies haven’t officially announced any form of signing.

In other minor league signings, the Phillies added veteran outfielder Freddy Guzman.  Guzman is currently playing in the Caribbean Series and made highlights when he stole home.  The switch-hitter spent most of 2009 in different Triple-A affiliates, however he played in ten games with the New York Yankees, and stole four bases.

Before the season started, Rollins batted .417 with a home run and four RBIs for Team USA during the World Baseball Classic.  With the hot start, it was thought that Rollins would carrying his success into the regular season.  However, it was only a sample size of at-bats.  Things didn’t go as planned, and Rollins batted .229 during the first half of the season.

The Phillies started to struggle in Interleague play, and after an 0-for-28 slump in late June, Charlie Manuel benched Rollins for four games.  His average plummeted to .205, so Manuel thought some time off would clear his mind. 

Rollins returned and batted .358 in his next 13 games, which included seven multi-hit games.  In addition, it led to a re-surged Phillies ball club.  In July, Rollins batted .313 with a .924 on-base plus slugging percentage.

Rollins continued to improve as the season moved along.  He hit .272 with 14 home runs  in the second half of the season.  Rollins batted .234 in the playoffs, but his walk-off hit in the National League Championship Series overshadowed everything.

As always, Rollins defense was stellar.  His best fielding percentage among all shortstops led to his third consecutive Gold Glove Award.

During this off season, the Phillies already picked up Rollins’ $8.5 million option for 2011.  If he keeps goin’, so will the Phillies.  Afterall, he’s only the best shortstop in Phillies history.

2009 stats: 155 games, .250 AVG, .296 OBP, .423 SLG, .719 OPS, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB

Grade: 7.9 — His defense was always there, but his offense only showed up for half of the season.  If the grade was based on clutch hits in the playoffs, he’d get a perfect ten.

This concludes our 2009 Year In Review.  To view the entire list, click here and enjoy all  of the player recaps.

Three tables away, a man overheard my comment, came over my table, and almost without warning launched into a three-minutes of some of the most hateful invective I’ve ever heard about one Cole Hamels. I began offering some counter-arguments (”Cole was distracted with the new wife and baby” and “Cole was unlucky with his high BABIP”), but this man was hearing nothing of it. He didn’t hear me, because he was screaming so loud and not stopping to breathe, and even if he had, I don’t think he would have cared much about the fact that Cole allowed two more hits per 9 innings in 2009 than 2008, despite almost all other peripheral stats remaining the same.

It occurred to me that the Phillies’ ascendancy in 2007 and 2008 was due in large part to three players who, for whatever reason, were all just abject disappointments in 2009. These three–Jimmy Rollins, Hamels, and Brad Lidge, will all be back in prominent roles in 2010. I don’t think it’s fair to blame these three for the failure to repeat (after all, a lot of things went wrong in that World Series), but I do think it would help if the Phillies had a leadoff hitter with an OBP over .300, a No. 2 starter who’s somewhat more consistent than two-hit shutout one night, then 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings five days later, and a closer who’s not having literally the worst year ever for a full-season closer.

So from these three stalwart Phillies, what can we expect? Whom can we trust?

Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll is my favorite Phillie of all time. Yeah, I’m willing to say that. He’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, one of the best basestealers (by percentage as well as volume), and he has good power for a shortstop (about 20 homers and 40 doubles a year). However, he’s never hit .300 in a full season (even in his MVP year he hit .296) and he’s never had an OBP above .350, which, combined with his power, leads me to believe that the leadoff spot might not actually be the best place for him.

But will he replicate last year, when, up until the All-Star break, he was a faster, better-groomed Eric Bruntlett? I say no, because since 2004, he’s been remarkably consistent, throwing up .290/.340/.450 seasons like clockwork, with the exception of 2007, when his slugging percentage jumped about 50 points from 2006 and he won the MVP. Even post-All-Star last year, his batting average jumped 50 points from the first half and his slugging percentage jumped 150 points. But his OBP, even in the second half, was still only .306, which leads me to wonder if J-Roll might be done as a leadoff hitter. He’s still an incredibly valuable player, with his power, speed, and defense, but as little as he walks (and, at 31 on Opening Day, we can probably expect him to start declining slowly in the next couple years), he might be better-suited to hit 6th in the order if his batting average continues to slide. We’ll see. I think expecting a second-half Rollins all year next year is reasonable.

Cole Hamels
This post over at The Fightins pretty much sums up how I feel about Cole Hamels in 2009. It’s a great read, and very thought-provoking, and I’m not just saying that because they quote my friend and colleague Paul Boye liberally in the piece. For those of you without the time and inclination to click the link, here’s a brief summary. Much of pitching is luck. You can give up a 390-foot fly ball or a liner hit right on the screws and it can be an out depending on whether it’s hit at a fielder or not. As we so often on ESPN, the difference between an out and a double is often how well the fielder reads the ball off the bat. The pitcher can control strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and to a certain extent, whether the hits he gives up are ground balls, fly balls, or line drives. With that said, the biggest difference statistically between Cole Hamels 2008 and Cole Hamels 2009 was that kind of luck.

He kept striking people out at the same rate, walking people at the same rate, giving up the same percentages of grounders, line drives, fly balls, and pop-ups. But while in 2008 the only way to score against Cole Hamels was with the two solo homers a game he was good for, in 2009, he gave up a phenomenal number of dying quails, Texas Leaguers, and broken-bat toppers for hits.

But while I said that luck was the biggest factor in Cole Hamels’ disappointing 2009, I didn’t say only. When things were going well, he was still the same, and you got that brilliant complete-game shutout in Dodger Stadium on less than 100 pitches. But when those cheap bloopers started falling in, you could almost visibly see the wheels falling off. This is what happened in Game 3 of the World Series, incidentally. While 2008 Hamels would have shaken off the A-Rod Camera Homer and gotten on with his night, 2009 Hamels went to pieces.

I suspect that part of this was due to Cole Hamels becoming a father for the first time at age 25 during the playoffs. I don’t fault him if his head was miles away during the playoffs–mine would have been too. I suspect that part of this was, yes, due to the lost focus and band conditioning while he was doing Letterman and the banquet circuit in the offseason, and letting his wife slowly emasculate him in magazine condominium ads.

So what do I think for 2010? I think Cole (whom we haven’t heard much from since that Game 3, by the way) has gone to Tibet or something to train without distractions. I think he’s learned from what worked in 2007-08 and what didn’t work in 2009. I think he’s taken the Lee/Halladay hoopla to heart. I think he’s going to come back, at 26, in eff-you mode, possibly with a third effective pitch, and break off 200 strikeouts, an ERA at or below 3.00, and, if the stars of run support and the bullpen align, make a run at 20 wins. I think he’ll make some Cy Young noise. There’s no way he’s that unlucky again for a whole season, and there’s no way he’s that unfocused all season again. I think the Cole Hamels of 2010 will be arrogant, rejuvenated, and effective.

Brad Lidge
In baseball, people say “best ever” or “worst ever” far too often. But Brad Lidge’s 2009 was an unmitigated disaster, a test case in which we find out what a pitcher with an average fastball and a devastating slider turns into when he’s suddenly a pitcher with a terrible fastball and a league-average slider. Suddenly, the walks, which aren’t an issue when you’re giving up two-thirds of a hit an inning and striking out double digits every nine innings, lead to blown save opportunities and, by my estimation, a difference of as much as eight game in the standings.

Here’s what we know. Brad Lidge was never completely healthy in 2009. We know this because he went on the DL mid-season and wasn’t any better when he came off, plus he’s had two different surgeries this offseason. The second, a knee operation three weeks ago, should rule him out for Opening Day. Good. I don’t want him rushed back. I want him to take far too long to rehab the knee, not because I don’t want him on the roster, but I don’t want 80 percent of Brad Lidge early on at the price of not having any kind of effective Brad Lidge later.

So if keeping him out until May means we get a decent closer for the second half of the season and the playoffs, I’m all for it.

But what kind of closer will he be? I know this sounds like a cop-out, but about halfway between 2008 Lidge and 2009 Lidge. First, it’s hard to get any worse than Brad Lidge in 2009. But even as he gets older, and his fastball starts to lose a little zip, I think that, when healthy, he’s a good closer. And we could have used a closer of any kind last year, even one who’s just “good.”

So there go three of the biggest question marks for 2010. Have a pleasant weekend, brothers and sisters, and stay strong–only 12 more days until pitchers and catchers report.

We’re using WAR – Wins Above Replacement – exclusively here, as it contains both offensive and defensive evaluations combined into one single, easy-to-use statistic. There are a few iterations of WAR, none differing greatly, and we use the one supplied by Fangraphs for our numbers and projections.

Typically, these posts begin with some sort of allegorical war story to tie in with the team we’re about to evaluate. You want a war story? Go read some of the comments on the last entry in the series, posted by Mike on the Cardinals.

In this episode, we’ll be taking a look at the National League runners-up in two straight seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Shall we?

The Dodgers didn’t really have any super-duperstar performances in 2009. Perhaps Manny Ramirez would have if he hadn’t missed a third of the season being suspended. Who knows? The guy has been ageless. Like Mitt Romney, as Mike would say. Or Rip Torn, as Corey has discovered. Personally, I’m a little stunned that Tom Cruise is turning 48 this July.

ManRam won’t be able to keep it up forever, but his .269/.389/.492 line in 311 plate appearances following the lifting of his suspension shows that he still has plenty of plate discipline and good contact and power for a guy who turns 38 in May.

The real heart of the Dodgers now resides within a young core of players that could bust out into megastardom at any point, even as early as this year. Outfielder Matt Kemp won’t turn 26 until September, but he seems on course for a 30-30 season in 2010, all while playing above average defense at one of the toughest positions on the field in center.

Young phenom Clayton Kershaw is even younger – 22 in a month or so – and had an incredibly successful sophomore year in 2009. Kershaw allowed a league-low 6.3 hits per nine innings pitched, and surrendered just seven homers in 171 innings while striking out 185. His only Achilles heel is that his stuff has so much movement – including his “Public Enemy No. 1″ curve – that patient hitters have little trouble drawing walks; Kershaw walked just fewer than five hitters per nine, a dangerously high number.

A recap of Los Angeles’s 2009 campaign:

2009 Roster

C1: Russell Martin (2.1 WAR)
C2: Brad Ausmus (0.6 WAR)

1B: James Loney (1.4 WAR)
2B: Orlando Hudson (2.9 WAR)
3B: Casey Blake (4.2 WAR)
SS: Rafael Furcal (3.2 WAR)
INF: Ronnie Belliard (1.0 WAR), Juan Castro (0 WAR), Mark Loretta (-0.2 WAR)

OF1: Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR),
OF2: Manny Ramirez (2.7 WAR)
OF3: Andre Ethier (2.5 WAR)
OF4: Juan Pierre (1.8 WAR)

SP1: Randy Wolf (3.0 WAR)
SP2: Chad Billingsley (3.1 WAR)
SP3: Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR)
SP4: Hiroki Kuroda (2.2 WAR)
SP5: Vicente Padilla (2.0 WAR)
SP6: Jon Garland (2.4 WAR)

CL: Jonathan Broxton (2.9 WAR)
SU: Ramon Troncoso (0.8 WAR)
RP: Ronald Belisario (0.7 WAR)
RP: Guillermo Mota (-0.1 WAR)
RP: James McDonald (0.1 WAR)
RP: Hong-Chih Kuo (0.4 WAR)
RP: George Sherrill (0.4 WAR)
RP: Cory Wade (0 WAR)
RP: Will Ohman (-0.5 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 47.3

Behind Kemp and Kershaw, and maybe some continued development from Andre Ethier or a resurgence from Russell Martin, the Dodgers should once more be the favorite to win the NL West. But their hold is slipping, and they may not be the favorites again this time next year.

The Dodgers are a bit lacking in upper-tier minor league talent, so the best production they’ll likely get for this season is from what they’ve already got. ESPN’s Keith Law ranks their system 19 out of 30 for that very reason. It’s not as if that’s a big hindrance, though: this team will hit a lot of home runs, compile some good on-base numbers and be decent defensively. Their relief corps looks to be strong once again, and the losses of Randy Wolf and late-season acquisition Jon Garland probably won’t hurt as badly as the loss of Wolf’s 2009 numbers would indicate. Wolf’s BABIP was at a career low last year, pushing his numbers favorably enough to net him a three-year, $27 million deal with Milwaukee this winter.

As for 2010, let’s see what the men in blue are projected to produce.

2010 Roster

C1: Russell Martin (3.9 WAR)
C2: Brad Ausmus (0.4 WAR)

1B: James Loney (1.8 WAR)
2B: Ronnie Belliard (0.4 WAR)
3B: Casey Blake (3.0 WAR)
SS: Rafael Furcal (3.0 WAR)
INF: Blake DeWitt (1.6 WAR), Jamey Carroll (1.5 WAR)

OF1: Matt Kemp (4.0 WAR),
OF2: Manny Ramirez (2.8 WAR)
OF3: Andre Ethier (2.6 WAR)
OF4: Jason Repko (0.2 WAR)
OF: Xavier Paul (-0.1 WAR), Reed Johnson (0.1 WAR)

SP1: Clayton Kershaw (4.4 WAR)*
SP2: Chad Billingsley (4.4 WAR)*
SP3: Hiroki Kuroda (3.2 WAR)*
SP4: Vicente Padilla (2.0 WAR)*
SP5: Eric Stults (0.5 WAR)*

CL: Jonathan Broxton (2.6 WAR)* 2.38 FIP, 80 IP
SU: George Sherrill (1.4 WAR) 3.31 FIP, 74 IP
SU: Ramon Troncoso (0.8 WAR) 3.54 FIP, 72 IP
RP: Ronald Belisario (0.7 WAR) 4.20 FIP, 69 IP
RP: James McDonald (0.1 WAR) 4.22 FIP, 74 IP
RP: Hong-Chih Kuo (0.4 WAR) 2.95 FIP, 48 IP
RP: Cory Wade (0 WAR) 4.39 FIP, 62 IP

2010 Projected WAR: 45.7

Out: Wolf, Mota, Castro, Hudson, Pierre, Loretta, Garland, Ohman

In: Repko, Carroll, Johnson

Remember: asterisks indicate fan projections and italics indicate 2009 numbers.

So, by rough estimation, the Dodgers are already on the path to slight regression, losing about two wins from ‘09 to ‘10. They added very little to replace what was leaving, and will seemingly need to rely heavily on internal help to fill out their supporting roles.

Manager Joe Torre, a notorious bullpen abuser, looks like he’ll be running arms out at a heavy pace once again, as just those relievers listed are projected to amass somewhere in the vicinity of 480 innings. That said, it appears Jon Broxton will once again be a stout, dominant force at the back end of that ‘pen. His troubles in the ninth innings of last year’s NLCS Game 4 notwithstanding, Broxton is one of the best short relievers in the game, and he’ll need to be a two- to two-and-a-half-win pitcher to hold that mostly young ‘pen together. Sherrill and Kuo form a formidable one-two lefty punch, and should continue to give lefty batters fits.

Rotation questions exist after Kershaw, however. Billingsley finished his 2009 campaign rather roughly, Padilla is mercurial at best and not as good as his half season in L.A. would suggest (as if we don’t already know that), and Kuroda’s durability could be in question as he enters his age-35 season.

In fairness, Billingsley probably just experienced a blip and should return to his effective ways, but that does not allay the worries that Dodger fans should have three out of five days. The Dodgers’ chances of reaching a third straight NLCS hinge on those rotation arms, as well as rebounds of sorts from Manny and Martin and the continued progression of Kemp and Ethier. Though perhaps my concerns over the rotation are overstated; for sure, the offense looks to be quite well-rounded and should score between 750 and 800 runs (enough to mask a few clunker outings), and Dodger Stadium plays favorably to pitchers.

What I don’t see is a marked improvement over the course of this offseason. The Dodgers will be good. They will win the West and go to the playoffs with designs of overcoming the Philly hurdle and reaching the World Series. On paper, however, this isn’t a team that will accomplish that feat.

Pencil in the Dodgers for 91-71, good for another NL West division title in 2010.

Listen to the interview right here:

Scott Proefrock on our partner station, 97.3 ESPN FM

Villarreal last pitched in the majors in 2008, sitting all of last season after Tommy John surgery.  His last full year was with Houston, and it was relatively uninspiring.  He posted a 5.03 ERA in 35 appearances in ‘08 and has had an up-and-down major league career.

According to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, Villarreal tossed a bullpen session in Arizona and threw about 89-90 mph and will be certainly be looked at as plug for the leaky pen.

Preferably, the recipe can be prepared in a parking lot using portable equipment, but if you’re more of a couch tailgater and have a special food you like, you can submit that too. Our book will cover three chapters: tailgating at the park, tailgating at home, and tailgating with booze (food and drink recipes using alcohol).

We’ll test all the recipes and select the most delicious ones to be published (with credit) in our book. Use the form below to enter or upload your favorites and email us with any questions.

cforms contact form by delicious:days

So even though he would turn 38 during the playoffs, and even though his previous three seasons could best be described as “injury-riddled” or “mediocre,” the Phillies, in a scene straight out of a thousand movies, talked him into giving it one last spin.

And you know what? In 12 starts, counting the postseason, he wasn’t too bad. It was obvious that this wasn’t the turn-of-the-century Pedro who was so dominant he looked bored half the time. But he maintained his impeccable control (4.63 K/BB ratio for the regular season), changed arm angles, and could still reach back for a low-90s fastball a couple times a game.

All in all, what turned out to be a low-risk deal for $1 million plus incentives paid off quite well. By the time he signed in mid-July, the Phillies had, for months, trotted out a finally over-the-hill Jamie Moyer and a parade of fringe veterans and AAA kids who might not have quite been ready. Pedro stepped into the fifth starter’s spot and pitched well enough that he warranted three outings in the playoffs. And that’s where this gets complicated.

In his first start, Game 2 of the NLCS, Pedro looked like he had been cryogenically frozen after the 1999 season and the Phillies had decided to decant him for the occasion. Seven shutout innings, only two baserunners allowed, 23 batters faced, only 87 pitches thrown. Of course, the Phillies eventually lost when Chase Utley started throwing to an imaginary fifteen-foot high first baseman.

But Uncle Cholly was impressed enough to throw Pedro back into the fray for Game 2 of the World Series at Yankee Stadium. He didn’t pitch badly, even amid a chorus of “Who’s Your Daddy?” chants. He struck out eight Yankees in six innings, but he took the loss when either A.J. Burnett had the game of his life, or the Phillies hitters just forgot to show up.

Game 6 was a different story. All I’ll say about that game is that Andy Pettitte didn’t pitch that great either, and while Pedro could have saved the series by throwing a three-hit shutout, I don’t know if it was reasonable to expect him to do that.

So for a good half-season, an up-and-down playoff run, and the best Jheri curl since Michael Jackson’s Thriller album cover, I thank you, Pedro Martinez, and wish you well.

2009 numbers: 5-1, 3.63 ERA, 44.2 IP, 37 K, .276 BAA, 1.25 WHIP, 4 HBP

Grade: 5.5/10—Let’s face it, he was an average pitcher for half a season, and that World Series Game 6 was something of a stinker. But an effective and entertaining starter in July on a “Why not?” signing is worth at least a golf clap.