As It Stands, The 2009 Phillies Are Worth 88 Wins

I checked out some win shares today, trying to determine exactly how much the Phillies were losing and/or gaining for 2009. You can see win shares here.

2008 Phillies: 274 win shares = 91.3333 wins.

Pat Burrell: 21 WS
Chris Coste: 10 WS*
JC Romero: 3 WS**
Rudy Seanez: 3 WS
Tom Gordon: 2 WS
So Taguchi: 1 WS

* hypothetical
** expected loss of time

The Phillies now have 234 win shares = 78 wins.

Raul Ibanez: 23 WS
Chan Ho Park: 6 WS
Ronny Paulino: 3 WS
Gary Majewski: 0 WS

The 2009 Phillies now have 266 win shares = 88.6666 wins.

If the Phillies are finished with offseason additions, don’t fret. The three major midseason additions totaled 7 win shares, so a 7-share addition during the 2009 season will put the Phillies back around 91-92 wins. Is the 266 total accurate? Maybe, maybe not. We can hope that totals increase for Brett Myers (6 WS), Geoff Jenkins (5 WS), Joe Blanton (3 WS), JA Happ (2 WS), Kyle Kendrick (2 WS), but then again, we can hope that totals don’t decrease for Shane Victorino (21 WS), Jayson Werth (18 WS), Brad Lidge (13 WS), Jamie Moyer (13 WS) and Chad Durbin (8 WS).

Win shares are a crap shoot, but are usually quite accurate in determining value to a team’s success. Say everything remains as is for the playes reaching or in their prime – that includes Vic, Werth, Lidge and Durbin. The best addition the Phils may receive in 2009 is a full season of Blanton and Happ, and improved play by Jenkins. Those things alone could give the Phillies another 12-15 shares, which could put them in the 95-97-win range.

Of course, if Chase Utley misses a lot of time, the Phils could lose a bunch of shares, as he accounted for a team-high 30.

So as it stands, the Phils offseason is a minor disappointment from the value standpoint; however, it seems the Phils are really hoping their younger players increase their success levels, while their very veteran players sustain or improve. At this point, it’s not a bad theory.

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