2009 Projection: Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco, SP (RHP)
Age: 22

2008 (AA / AAA): 151.1 IP / 9-9 / 3.68 ERA / 58 BB / 155 K / 1 CG / 1.34 WHIP

Summary: The Phillies’ top prospect struggled through double-A for the second-consecutive season, but did fare better than in 2007, but his strikeout rates were much better the second time around. He threw 8.56 K/9 in 2008 before heading for Lehigh Valley and posting a great 11.29 K/9 rating. In triple-A he dominated, recording a 1.72 ERA. In 36.2 triple-A innings he let up 37 hits and just one home run.

Career Level: Learning (Year 4)

Green Flags: Carrasco seems poised to have strong major league numbers, considering his good strikeout rates and improving hit rates. … Scouts claim his changeup is a plus-plus pitch, not on par with Cole Hamels, but very dominate. … His performance in the Venezuelan Winter League (against a lot of AA- and AAA-brand hitters) showed he’s ready to make the jump.

Red Flags: His performance in double-A is slightly alarming, still, since he couldn’t improve on an ERA of 4.32. … At only 22, Carrasco is far ahead his prescribed level (A+/AA), so he may experience hiccups in the majors, once he reaches that level.

Prognostication: Carrasco is likely the seventh or eighth pitcher on the Phillies’ starting depth chart, so he might see some time in the July-August range, if the Phils don’t have too many problems at that level. Could he be in the rotation by September? Sure, but don’t expect it yet. I predict he’ll have his first major league start in 2009, with many another one or two to go along with it. Nothing big.

2009 Projection: 15 IP / 1-0 / 4.80 ERA / 5 BB / 10 K / 0 CG / 1.46 WHIP

Tim Malcolm

Tim first found the Phillies as a little infant at Veteran’s Stadium, cheering on a Juan Samuel game-winning home run in his very first game. With the pinstripes in his blood, he witnessed Terry Mulholland’s 1990 no-hitter, “Steve Carlton Night” at the Vet, game three of the 1993 World Series, countless games during the charmed 2008 championship season and various road excursions. Since November 2007 Tim’s been writing about them daily at Phillies Nation, becoming one of the world’s most popular Phillies scribes. You can catch him on Twitter and Facebook, as well. When he’s not talking about the Phils he’s relaxing with a St. Bernardus ABT 12 or one of his many favored brews.