Hot Stove

Phillies called a “best fit” in trades for Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco



Sports Illustrated rates Phillies a good fit for a trade from Dbacks to Phillies (Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons)

Much of the talk surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies during these early days of the Hot Stove season has understandably centered on some of the big-name free agents.

The Phillies have a great deal of money available to spend, and so they should be major players for some of the top available talents. However, free agency is just one way in which the team can improve itself.

Earlier this week, Scott Lauber at Philly.com quoted Phillies general manager Matt Klentak, a man squarely on the hot seat this off-season, in regards to the team’s approach:

“Part of the fun of this offseason is we don’t know which way we’re going to go. It could be a starter. It could be a reliever. It could be a hitter. It could be a defender. It could be some combination of that. It could be trades. It could be free agency. To be able to consider any opportunity is exciting.”

The staff at Sports Illustrated released a piece on Friday in which they explored some high-profile names reportedly on the trade block, and then tried to match those players with teams they felt were “Best Fits” for the players.

The Phillies were listed as such in relation to one big bat and a pair of star pitchers. The bat is that of Arizona Diamondbacks impact first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The pitchers were right-handers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, publicly placed on the trade block by the Cleveland Indians.

As stated by SI, Goldschmidt would “…easily improve any lineup of any contender. From here, the best fits look to be the Yankees, Rockies, Nationals, and Phillies, with the Astros a potential dark-horse.

Goldschmidt turned 31-years-old in September, so will play at that age all of next season. He is signed through next season at $14.5 million, a bargain for the level of production that his big right-handed bat yields.

Goldschmidt was born in the area in Wilmington, Delaware but he grew up in Texas. Over his eight seasons, ‘Goldy’ has crushed 209 home runs and roped another 267 doubles. His career slash line reads at .297/.398/.532 and he has been a National League all-star in each of the last six seasons.

He has four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves on his mantle, and was the NL’s Hank Aaron Award winner in the 2013 season during which Goldschmidt led the league in homers and RBI.

While his bat would improve most any lineup, it would be hard to see a genuine fit for Goldschmidt with the Phillies. The team already has Rhys Hoskins, who should be filling the first base position down in South Philly for at least the next half-dozen years.

They also have $40 million committed to Carlos Santana over the next two years, an albatross of a contract for a player whose only decent defensive position would be at first base. Goldschmidt has played no other defensive position other than first base during his big-league career.

In regards to the Phillies possible interest in Goldschmidt, the SI staffers believe it would hinge on the club losing out in the bidding for free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, and finding a way to deal Santana, describing the scenario as follows: “…if they miss out on Harper and Machado both, though they’d have to ditch Carlos Santana somewhere in the process.

The Phillies are absolutely looking to improve their starting rotation this off-season. An experienced, quality arm to slot in between Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta in the rotation would go a long way towards helping the club push up to genuine contending status next year.

The SI staffers rate the Phillies along with the New York Yankees as the two best fits should Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff actually move either Kluber or Carrasco.

Kluber will turn 33-years-old as the 2019 season gets underway next April. After eight big-league seasons, all in Cleveland, he has a career mark of 96-55 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.070 WHIP, and 2.96 FIP. The righty has allowed 1,121 hits over 1,306 innings across 201 games, 196 of those as starts, with a 1,423/277 K:BB ratio.

Anyone who knows anything about pitching statistics realizes that those are true ace-quality numbers. Kluber has won a pair of AL Cy Young Awards and has been an American League all-star in each of the last three seasons.

Contractually he is extremely affordable. Kluber is owed just one more year at $17 million, and then there is a $1 million buyout. However, the team also would have club options for 2020 at $17.5 and 2021 at $18 million.

Carrasco should be familiar to any Phillies fan who knows team history. He was a signed by the club as a 16-year-old out of his native Venezuela back in November of 2003. He rose through the team’s farm system to become one of the Phillies top pitching prospects over the next few years.

At the 2009 non-waiver trade deadline, Carrasco was dealt as the lead piece in a four-prospect package to the Indians in exchange for pitcher Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.

The deal appeared a steal for the Phillies at first. Lee helped lead the team back to the World Series that October, then returned in 2011 as a free agent, becoming one of the best and most popular Phillies during the post-World Series years.

However, Lee’s career was cut somewhat short by injuries, ending at age 35 in mid-2014. Carrasco meanwhile developed into a top starter in his own right. Over parts of nine seasons he has a 79-62 record with a 3.71 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and 3.33 career FIP mark.

Carrasco has allowed 1,018 hits over 1,094.1 innings across 207 games, 171 of those as starting assignments. He has a career 1,127/278 K:BB ratio and finished fourth in the 2017 American League Cy Young Award voting.

Contractually, Carrasco is even more affordable than either Kluber or Goldschmidt. He is owed just $9.75 million for next season and then has a buyout at less than $700,000 for 2020. There is also a team option in place at just $9.5 million for that 2020 season during which he would turn 33 years of age.

Each one of these three stars would be financially affordable to the Phillies. Each one would better the team measurably. The real issue would be what would it cost the team in prospects? Both Chernoff in Cleveland and Arizona GM Mike Hazen would be looking for a solid prospect package in return.

In order to get any of the three, we would likely again be looking at a team trying to acquire top Phillies pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. You might have one or all of the Phillies top hitting prospects including Alec Bohm, Adam Haseley, and Mickey Moniak in such a package.

As SI related in their piece, Cleveland may not deal either arm in the end. The Indians are a top AL contender, and want to continue as such. “Being “willing to listen” doesn’t equal “actively shopping,”…this one seems like it would need a seriously perfect package in order to come to fruition.

Until actual free agent contracts are agreed to and trades are made, the Phillies are going to continue to be linked to most of the top available names. We’ll be here reporting on it all for you at Phillies Nation as the Hot Stove continues to heat up this fall and winter.

 

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14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. PricklyPete

    November 10, 2018 at 5:42 pm

    Where the Hell is Goldschmidt going to play?

  2. Matthew Veasey

    November 10, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    Let’s be honest – Goldy is worlds better than any hitter currently in the roster. So you play him at first base and live with Hoskins in LF. Me? I then deal Santana for the best possible package. You might even have to consider dealing Hoskins. But frankly, the Phillies management should consider 1B filled by Hoskins, and let’s move on to solving SS, a power outfielder, and pitching.

  3. Craig Glessner

    November 10, 2018 at 8:05 pm

    I agree 100 percent if we trade for Goldschmidt we may as well trade Hoskins. Bad idea all the way around. We need a shortstop, an outfielder and pitching, not a team full of first baseman who can’t field any other positions. Second of all if we do trade for someone we need to be the team with the leverage I wouldn’t give up more than one top ten prospect for any one player. Look at the Giancarlo trade and the Yellich deal from last year they gave up one good prospect and several mid level prospects.

  4. schmenkman

    November 12, 2018 at 9:27 am

    Shortstop is the least of the Phillies’ worries, IMO.

    Plug in Crawford (former top prospect, always rated highly as a fielder, would have ranked as 16th among MLB starting SS as a hitter in 2018 if he qualified, at only 23) — and move on to areas of real need.

  5. Jeff

    November 12, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    In any trade the Phillies should include both Cozens and Walding. As both don’t seem to have a place with this team. Also in the right deal I would include Franco, especially if we sign Macado.

    • Matthew Veasey

      November 12, 2018 at 12:54 pm

      Machado has publicly stated that he wants to play shortstop. He could likely play there for at least the next 4-5 years. Franco is very affordable for another handful of seasons and has genuine 30HR-100RBI potential. Still just age 26. I would rather see them move Santana, Crawford, and Hernandez. Make the infield Hoskins, Kingery, Machado, Franco. That is, if you are signing Machado at all. That is a real conundrum for me right now.

  6. Amanda Mari

    November 13, 2018 at 1:57 pm

    With the talk of getting Goldschmidt, it seems that the front office doesn’t think Hoskins is a first baseman. That they think he’s a left fielder is laughable. Kingery isn’t a shortstop, although he is getting comfortable with the position. Crawford should stay in the minors for a while longer. Get decent pitching, forget Goldschmidt.

  7. schmenkman

    November 13, 2018 at 5:10 pm

    But the talk is purely someone’s speculation, and not from the front office.

    Also Crawford was ready a year ago, any more time in the minors is wasted IMO. If the Phillies get Machado and he demands to play SS, that’s fine, but otherwise JPC should be the opening day shortstop (again).

  8. Craig Glessner

    November 13, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    Just something to throw out there. I do agree with the idea that if we don’t get Machado JP should be the starting SS. But what if we miss out on Machado but sign someone like Lemehu (not sure on spelling) from the Rockies who plays second very well. I personally would use Kingery at SS over JP. I’d use JP as the super utility player. Any thoughts PHILLY NATION

    • schmenkman

      November 13, 2018 at 9:54 pm

      Very much disagree on that Craig. IMO JPC is the much better fielder at SS, as good if not better hitter overall, thanks to much better plate discipline.

  9. Craig Glessner

    November 14, 2018 at 3:02 pm

    OK how can someone be a better hitter when they don’t get as many hits. Kingery has a track record for being a good hitter, Crawford has always struggled with the bat. I’m starting to think you are related to Kapler or Klentak first Santana now Crawford next your going to try to bring back Dominic Brown.

    • schmenkman

      November 14, 2018 at 3:22 pm

      Because there is more to hitting than how many hits you get, just to state the obvious.

      What kind of hits is also important, and walks on average are worth almost as much as a single.

      In 2018, for example, Kingery had a little better batting average, .226 to .214. But Crawford’s hits were more often for extra bases (JPC 1.8 bases per hit, Kingery 1.5), and Crawford got on base a lot more (.319 OBP vs. .267).

      So overall, Crawford was the much better hitter in 2018.

      He’s had a pattern of taking some time to adjust to a level, and then doing well. He struggled at Lehigh Valley, but then blew away AAA pitching for his last 2 1/2 months there before getting called up in Sept. 2017 (.904 OPS — great for a shortstop).

      This year he started slowly but then had a .805 OPS from April 10 on.

  10. Craig Glessner

    November 14, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    2 on 2 out ninth inning down a run who do we want up to bat. Kingery or Crawford. I understand walks are part of the game but riddle me this joker if we were so great at getting on base by walks last year why were we so far down in the rankings for runs scored. The goal is to score runs not leave runners on base everyone on the team can walk but eventually someone has to hit the damn ball to drive in the runners. Pull up whatever stat you want it comes down to average, hrs, and rbi’s. Anything else is a garbage number created by people like Kapler who had bad stats as a player and want to justify it. What’s next Santana was third in the national league last year on Tuesday nights when the temperature is above 75 and it is 7th inning or later with go ahead rbi’s.
    That sounds crazy huh? I leave you with this thought You can get a good look at a T-Bone by sticking your head up a bulls ass but wouldn’t you rather take the butchers word for it instead. My point is you can throw up any numbers you want about a hitter but wouldn’t you rather just look at their BATTING AVERAGE, if it wasn’t important it wouldn’t be called the BATTING AVERAGE.

    • schmenkman

      November 14, 2018 at 5:05 pm

      Sure batting average is important. It’s also woefully incomplete, since it ignores huge parts of the game.

      The situation you describe is one where Kingery might be a little better. There are also many others where JPC would be better. In the end it’s the overall effect on scoring runs that we are (or should be) interested in.

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