Analysis

A look at Bryce Harper’s projected 2020 numbers


Bryce Harper is entering his second season with the Phillies. (Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Bryce Harper is undoubtedly looking to follow up his successful first season with the Philadelphia Phillies with an even better 2020.

In year one of a 13-year/$330 million deal, Harper slashed .260/.372/.510, hit 35 home runs and drove in a career-high 114 runs. It is certainly possible that Harper could build upon this past season and be just as good if not better this upcoming season.

But just how good will his 2020 be?

Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs have their projections out for individual players for the 2020 season, and Harper is expected to put up solid numbers according to both sites. The projections by each differ, but the consensus seems to be that Harper will be a very valuable player this season.

Baseball Reference‘s projections on Harper have the 27-year-old penciled in for a .267/.380/.521 slash line with 32 home runs over 611 plate appearances. This .901 OPS would be a 19-point increase from his 2019 OPS of .882. Although the number of home runs would be down, this projection has Harper in for a better 2020 in terms of overall production.

FanGraphs has two sets of projections for Harper with their Depth Charts and Steamer projections. Both are roughly the same with the real difference being that Depth Charts has Harper at 158 games played while Steamer has him at only 150. He is projected to have a .259/.383/.540 slash line by both, along with 41 home runs. His projected fWAR of 4.3 by Depth Charts and Steamer would be just below his 2019 fWAR of 4.6.

The projections show that Harper could be in for another big year. Although the separate sites do not agree exactly on Harper’s numbers for 2020, it is clear that All-Star-level production can be expected based on his past performance.

And while the Phillies have many question marks entering this season, the projections say that they can count on a productive year from their biggest star.

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