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Phillies Nation Podcast: Can the Phillies fix this?


Joe Girardi is the manager of a Phillies team that has now missed the postseason in nine consecutive seasons. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

Phillies Nation Assistant Editorial Director Jonny Heller and Staff Writer Ty Daubert are back with another episode of the Phillies Nation Podcast.

In this episode, Jonny and Ty discuss the Phillies tough season and whether the situation is one that the Phillies can repair.

Listen to the latest episode of the Phillies Nation Podcast below. New episodes debut every Wednesday.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Jaron B

    October 1, 2020 at 10:51 am

    The only way I see a repair is if we spend and go over the tax. That is IF we get both JT & Didi and I’d love for that to happen. JT would fetch $25-30 million in AAV while Didi would fetch $17-23 million. I combine them for $48MM AAV and that’s a lot to spend on two players but those two are worth it. This plus arbitration leaves us ~$12MM in cap space for 8 players on ML contracts (that’s over $1MM each) and hopefully we have some options on 2-3 relievers. What would help is if the starting pitching gets us an avg of 1 additional inning per start and a lot of that rests on Eflin using this year as momentum and Spencer Howard vying for RoY votes. We’re pretty much at the tax. Now, we’re not going to go over by more than $20MM… doesn’t make sense and the tax would grow exponentially. Going $1 over $210MM starts the tax at two dimes per $1. We also have ~$30MM coming off the books in 2022 (McCutchen ($15MM but option), Odubel ($8MM), Neris ($7.5MM), if the latter isn’t released).

    You can see that there’s really no farm system in the next year or two. We started at 20/30. Bohm exhausted rookie eligibility (and will garner 2nd & 3rd place votes in the RoY race) so we’re at 25/30. When Howard exhausts his rookie eligibility next year, the farm will rank near 30/30. That also would be a factor in Klentak’s job status, which he keeps for one more year ($6MM over the next 2 seasons) IMO but is – read: MUST be – allowed to spend $225MM in AAV for a penalty of up to ~$300k.

    How many wins next year? We were on-pace for 76 wins. I’d say the potential was there to win 10 more games this year, which does equate to 27 wins in a 162-game season. 103 wins is probably a gross overestimate. Just 10 more wins added to 76 gets us close to the playoffs. If we take half of 27 and add it to 76, we get 90 wins, which is very reasonable for 2021 and gets most teams into October. I think we improve just a bit more than that especially if a bullpen overhaul works, everyone kept imporoves, and we keep JT & Didi. The bullpen was also partly the result of bad luck. Our OPP BABIP was ~.375 (typically .275-.305), which is at least 2-3 more hits per game than should be.

    A lot of IFs, which typically precludes a playoff berth. We spend up to $225MM in AAV for one year, we should be fixed enough to win one playoff series.

  2. delmo

    October 1, 2020 at 5:00 pm

    You think just like the current ownership. They always want to add patches and bandaids to a skeleton crew. The truth always hurts and that is why it is seldom spoken regarding this franchise. Check the Braves decision-making process for success; it is quick and decisive. They never rearrange the decor of the Titanic like the Phils and when they fire someone they stay fired; never brought back in other capacities like the Phillies do time and time again. Let us study the present roster and its massive errors in composition and lack of synergy and very poor financial traits. The only logical keepers are bohm, knapp, marchan, brogdon, eflin, howard, medina, nola, romero and wheeler. Cut expensive or nonperformers didi, realmuto, bruce, quin, garlick and gosselin. Trade hoskins, kingery, segura, mccutchen, harper, neris, velasquez, hasely and moniak. Do you think the current ownership could implement such bold moves? With zero fans in stands looming for 2021 I imagine they are considering them.

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