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How many home runs is Bryce Harper projected to hit in 2021?

If certain projection models are any indication, Philadelphia Phillies star outfielder Bryce Harper could be in for another strong power-hitting campaign in his third season with the team.

Could Bryce Harper be in for a big power season in 2021? (Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

The 28-year-old has averaged 25.8 home runs per season through the first eight years of his career — a number bogged down by the 13 he hit in the 60-game 2020 season. Based on the projections presented by Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, Harper’s 2021 home run total could be even higher.

Baseball Reference‘s projection model estimates that Harper will hit 29 home runs this season to go along with 89 RBIs and an .869 OPS. It would be the fifth 25-homer season of his career.

All the models listed by FanGraphs project the six-time All-Star will hit over 30 home runs in 2021. The site’s ZiPS model projects Harper to hit 34 home runs. The rest have Harper hitting at least 35, a feat he has only accomplished twice; he hit 42 in his 2015 National League MVP season and 35 in his first season in Philadelphia in 2019.

THE BAT and THE BAT X, featured on FanGraphs courtesy of Derek Carty, calculate that Harper will hit a projected 35 and 37 home runs, respectively.

ATC Projections, featured courtesy of Ariel Cohen, estimates that he will hit 36 home runs, as does FanGraphs‘ depth charts model. The site’s Steamer model projects 37 home runs for Harper.

Whichever projection proves to be most accurate at the conclusion of the season remains to be seen, but one thing seems to be clear throughout all of them: Harper’s third season in red pinstripes should be not devoid of power.


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