With less than a week remaining until the Aug. 2 trade deadline, it’s clear that Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski is trying to balance returning to the postseason for the first time since 2011 with beginning to consistently develop star players from within the organization.
After defeating the Atlanta Braves Wednesday afternoon, the Phillies are 51-47, tied for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Still, they don’t seem to be in a position where they plan on gutting their farm system for an immediate payoff.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic hears that the Phillies “have signaled to other clubs that Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are not available.”
As you listened to Dombrowski’s meeting with the media Monday, you came away thinking that adding another starting pitcher was the No. 1 priority in advance of the trade deadline.
But the Phillies, post MLB Draft, still only have the No. 26 farm system in baseball, according to Bleacher Report‘s Joel Reuter. Abel and Painter — both former first-round picks — are categorized as Tier 1 prospects by Reuter, meaning they have “All-Star potential.” Those two are off the table, by all accounts. So is McGarry, a hard-throwing righty that Baseball America recently added to their top 100 prospects list.
And so, unless something changes, the Phillies probably aren’t in on the limited frontline pitchers available on the trade market, such as Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo. Some of the controllable arms that have been bandied about as potentially available in recent days — guys like Tarik Skubal and Zach Plesac — also probably aren’t attainable if the Phillies are going to be protective of the top arms in their farm system.
Catcher Logan O’Hoppe, also given a Tier 1 grade by Reuter, has been speculated upon as someone the Phillies might be willing to part with. But just because J.T. Realmuto is under contract through the 2025 season doesn’t mean he’ll be a workhorse catcher for the entirety of that. It’s possible that him and O’Hoppe could co-exist for a season or two. And even if the Phillies view O’Hoppe as more expendable than some of the top arms in their farm system doesn’t mean that that Dombrowski will determine that now is the correct time to cash him in.
This seems like a deadline where the Phillies are more likely to trade for someone comparable to Joe Blanton than Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt.
“There’s premium guys out there, and then there’s other guys that can be helpful. Well, the premium guys are probably going to cost you your top prospects. I don’t think as an organization we’re in that position right now,” Dombrowski said Monday.
“That doesn’t mean that you can’t win as time goes on, and it doesn’t mean that something doesn’t change depending upon who’s available. But for us to mortgage our future for a one-year player, just doesn’t make to me, at this point, the most sense for the good of our club.”
That’s why when considering additions to a starting rotation that’s currently without Zach Eflin for an indefinite period of time, we looked at some more “realistic” possibilities. Noah Syndergaard and José Quintana are veteran rentals that could be solid No. 3 options behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Merrill Kelly and Paul Blackburn are controllable veterans that would ideally pitch towards the back end of a World Series contender’s rotation.
The guess here is that you could acquire any of that quartet without having to part with Abel, Painter or McGarry.
And who knows, maybe a year or two from now one of the prospects that the Phillies are being protective of right now will be pitching meaningful innings at Citizens Bank Park during a pennant race.
“The strength of our organization is our young starting pitching — it’s a very talented group of starting pitchers,” Dombrowski said.
“And the other thing I have found about talented young starting pitchers — and you can check back where I’ve been — [is that] sometimes they get to the big leagues very fast. I’m not saying this year, but there’s some people that could be competing for spots for next year that are youngsters. I’ve had no problem pitching guys who are 20 years old and having a lot of success with them at the big leagues. And they’re that good that some of those guys could be pitching here.
“And so, I don’t want to just think short-term. I’m not saying that they will [pitch in the majors in 2023], but they’ll be going to Spring Training with us next year. I mean, some of those guys are really good. And so, it’s a fun situation to be in.”
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