HOUSTON — The Philadelphia Phillies will finish off their regular season slate Tuesday and Wednesday in Houston, before heading on the road Friday to begin their first playoff series since 2011.
Given that the San Diego Padres have not yet clinched the second Wild Card spot in the National League, the Phillies don’t yet know who they are going to play. If the Padres — who enter play Tuesday night a game up on the Phillies for the second Wild Card spot in the senior circuit — ultimately hold onto the No. 2 Wild Card spot, the Phillies will head to St. Louis to play the Cardinals. But the Phillies do own the tie-breaker over the Padres, so if the two teams finish tied, the Phillies will win the second Wild Card spot and head to either New York or Atlanta, whichever team doesn’t win the NL East.
If all that sounds confusing, don’t fret, it will change in a few hours anyway.
What we do know is that Zack Wheeler will start Game 1 on Friday, and he’ll be followed by Aaron Nola in Game 2 on Saturday. If Game 3 is necessary, interim manager Rob Thomson revealed Tuesday afternoon that Ranger Suárez will get the ball. Suárez will make his final start of the regular season Tuesday night, and the expectation is that it will be an abbreviated outing, with the 27-year-old throwing in the neighborhood of four innings and/or 65 pitches.
Outside of the Wild Card Series rotation, there’s less certainty.
Some of the roster makeup will hinge on whether Brad Hand (left elbow tendinitis) and Edmundo Sosa (right hamstring strain) are healthy enough to play a role for the team.
Hand will throw Wednesday at Minute Maid Park, as the Phillies attempt to determine if the 32-year-old lefty will be able to pitch meaningful innings this weekend. Things went very well with Hand’s bullpen session on Monday, Thomson said.
Sosa will face live pitching Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. He did “everything” at full intensity Monday. Sosa was hitting .315 and playing excellent defense in 25 games as a Phillie. If all things were equal, he would be a lock for the postseason roster. But the Phillies have to take the fact that he hasn’t played since Sept. 15 into account, so Thomson cautioned that Sosa isn’t a lock to be on the Wild Card series roster even if all reports come back well in the coming days.
If Sosa weren’t on the roster, the Phillies still have Nick Maton as a utility infielder — and outfielder, for that matter. A potential Sosa absence could open the door for someone like Darick Hall, who won’t start games but could change your season with one swing off the bench, to be in the mix.
Thomson says that much of the postseason roster crunch will come down to how the Phillies allocate spots to pitchers on their 26-man roster. Hand’s health will play a factor in that. The Phillies plan to carry the maximum 13 pitchers for the Wild Card series, it’s just a matter of how many additional starters the team carries beyond Wheeler, Nola and Suárez.
When asked about whether Noah Syndergaard will be on the roster, Thomson said “We’ll see, but he’s got a good chance.” If the Phillies elect not to carry five starters, that would mean that either Bailey Falter or Kyle Gibson is left off the Wild Card Series roster. Being left off, however, wouldn’t necessarily be a punishment.
If the Phillies win the Wild Card Series in two games, then Suárez would start Game 1 of the NLDS. But if it took three games to be victorious, either Falter or Gibson could be called on to pitch Game 1 of the NLDS potentially. It’s not impossible that Wheeler could come back on three day’s rest for Game 1 — which would be played on Tuesday — but he isn’t far removed from an injured list stint with right forearm tendinitis. Beyond doing right by him from a health sense, you have to wonder how effective Wheeler would be right now on short rest.
But it’s possible that whichever of Falter or Gibson isn’t on the Wild Card Series roster becomes the contingency plan to pitch in Game 1 of the NLDS, or at some point later in the series. Whichever of the two is on the Wild Card Series roster could serve as a long-man if one game gets away, leaving them unable to start a few days later. Rosters can be adjusted between the Wild Card Series and NLDS.
Of course, the Phillies will have to win a best-of-three series played entirely on the road for there to be an NLDS. But once you get into the postseason, anything can happen.
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