Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, the longest tenured pitcher and position player on the Phillies, are both scheduled to become free agents at the end of next season.
Dave Dombrowski said at the team’s end-of-year press conference that the Phillies “would love to have Aaron in the organization for a long time,” but signing him long term isn’t a guarantee considering where the market is for above average to elite starting pitching.
Carlos Rodón, the most comparable pitcher on this year’s market, was reportedly looking for a $200 million contract. He signed with the New York Yankees for six-years, $162 million. While Rodón has been the better pitcher over the last two seasons, Nola has thrown more than 70 innings than Rodón since 2021 and has a much cleaner injury track record. The 29-year-old’s last non-COVID injured list stint was five years ago. You could argue that Nola should get just as much –and perhaps more than Rodón.
Either way, the Phillies could use the Rodón deal as a starting point for extension talks and if the deal does get done, Nola’s new contract would likely exceed Cole Hamels’ six-year, $144 million deal as the most lucrative contract extension in Phillies history.
Assuming Nola is not extended, both players are likely to receive a qualifying offer. Nola will almost certainly reject it and the same goes for Hoskins.
Even if Andrew Painter or Mick Abel look like future aces in their rookie seasons, it may not be a good idea to pencil in two pitchers in their early 20s as replacement for the 200 plus innings Nola pitches on a yearly basis. Having both Nola and Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation for at least two seasons if Nola is extended is probably better for their development than expecting them to be elite from the get go for a team with World Series aspirations. Pairing their veteran aces with their top prospects could be the Phillies’ way of replicating the Astros model of having an absurd amount of starting pitching depth.
The Phillies have options if they do not re-sign Nola. Julio Urias, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Tyler Mahle, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Max Scherzer, if he opts out of his contract, could all be on the market.
The only likely alternative to Hoskins in free agency is current Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron. Cron is the better defender, but he’s three years older and Hoskins’ career offensive numbers are better compared to Cron. He also played half of his games at Coors Field in each of the last two years:
Rhys Hoskins vs. C.J. Cron career stats
| Hoskins | Cron | |
| AVG | .242 | .261 |
| OBP | .353 | .322 |
| SLG | .492 | .474 |
| K% | 23.9% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 13.5% | 6.7% |
| wRC+ | 125 | 111 |
| DRS | -7 | 12 |
| OAA | -12 | 9 |
Since there’s no solid internal solution to first base if Hoskins leaves, they will have to turn elsewhere — at least for now.
Yes, the Phillies could move Alec Bohm to first, but all that does is shift the need from first base to third and unless they sign or trade for another player of Hoskins’ offensive caliber at third base, the Phillies will be worse off offensively.
Bohm deserves a ton of credit for the strides he’s made both on offense and defense in 2022, but he still ranked near the bottom among qualified third baseman in OPS (19 out of 22nd), home runs (17th) and BB/K (21st). His 98 wRC+ ranked 19th among 22 qualified third baseman in 2022 and would have ranked 23rd out of 25 among first baseman.
The Phillies are able to be patient with Bohm’s development as a hitter because they have offense at the top with Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Subtracting one of those bats elevates Bohm’s role as a run producer and while he’s only 26 and has a chance to improve next season before the Phillies make a decision on Hoskins, the Phillies can’t view Bohm as a suitable replacement for Hoskins unless he starts producing like Hoskins.
Or maybe the Phillies disregard this and sacrifice offense for defense by moving Bohm to first and giving Edmundo Sosa the starting job at third base if he hits well enough to be a regular. There’s no obvious replacement in the farm system right now, but all it takes is one breakout candidate. Matt Vierling was never in the prospect discussion, but that didn’t stop him from earning significant playing time over the last two years.
And no, Darick Hall cannot be a full-time replacement for Hoskins unless he proves he can hit left-handed pitching. The Phillies view him as a platoon bat, which is why 130 of Hall’s 142 MLB plate appearances in 2022 came against righties. Hall has a career .591 OPS against lefties and a .980 OPS against righties in the minor leagues.
A lot can happen in a year that can change the way the Phillies go about making this decision.
Maybe both Nola and Hoskins perform well in 2023 and there are no great alternatives in the organization. Both could return if that’s the case.
Now it becomes a matter of how high of a payroll Middleton is willing to carry. Steve Cohen’s massive spending spree raises the bar for big-market clubs like the Phillies, so it shouldn’t be much of an ask for the Phillies to carry another franchise-record payroll in 2024.
Here are all the AAV commitments the Phillies have for the 2024 season along with a guess on how much Nola and Hoskins will cost:
- Nola: $28,000,000 through ?
- Turner: $27,272,727 through 2033
- Harper: $25,384,615 through 2031
- Wheeler: $23,600,000 through 2024
- J.T. Realmuto: $23,100,000 through 2025
- Hoskins: $22,000,000 through ?
- Nick Castellanos: $20,000,000 through 2026
- Kyle Schwarber: $19,750,000 through 2025
- Taijuan Walker: $18,000,000 through 2026
- Matt Strahm: $7,500,000 through 2024
When you add the remaining salaries and account for miscellaneous expenses, it’s very likely the Phillies will carry a $300 million payroll in 2024 with Nola and Hoskins back. The cost of replacing Nola and Hoskins, if they go the free agent route in both cases, will also lead to the Phillies carrying another record-high payroll.
If that’s the cost and if Middleton and the Dombrowski-led front office believe keeping them around represents the best chance to getting back to the World Series, they’ll pay.
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