MLB.com’s Will Leitch recently wrote a piece outlining why the last-place St. Louis Cardinals should trade star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt at the Aug. 1 deadline.
It’s an idea that seems a little out there at first, but Leitch makes a few good points in the article.
- A team that trades for Goldschmidt will get him for two playoff runs. He’s making $22 million a year through 2024 with $26 million counting against the luxury tax in 2023 and 2024 (the 2023 salary would be prorated). Any team that’s in win-now mode should be able to take on that money.
- He’ll be 36 in September. A seven WAR player last year and already a two-plus WAR player this year, Goldschmidt is showing no signs of slowing down, but a team like the Cardinals may want to sell high given his age.
- The Cardinals, a team that traded away Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the same deal, badly need young impact starting pitching and there are potential suitors out there that have starting pitching prospects.
- Trading Goldschmidt would free up first base for star prospect Jordan Walker, a natural third baseman who has struggled in the outfield.
If the Cardinals are as bad as they’ve looked this year, they should look to flip Goldschmidt at the trade deadline for no less than a king’s ransom. Goldschmidt does have a no-trade clause in his deal, so the veteran first baseman will have to waive it in order for any deal to go through.
Interestingly enough, Leitch listed the Phillies as a “team that would want Goldschmidt.” He mentions that Goldschmidt could fill a void for the Phillies at first base in 2024 and that Dave Dombrowski has a history of trading top prospects for stars.
There are a few issues with Leitch’s explanation. There’s no mention of the Phillies’ plans to have Bryce Harper play first base at some point this season — and perhaps for a number of years as Harper ages. Maybe a deal for Goldschmidt delays Harper’s transition to first base, but it would be strange to reverse course with Harper and have him focus on returning to the outfield at some point before the season begins.
And while Dombrowski does have a history of flipping top prospects in trades for stars, it’s not the way he has operated in Philadelphia. The best Phillies prospect he has traded so far, Logan O’Hoppe, was blocked positionally and eventually flipped for center fielder Brandon Marsh, a young player who filled a position of need.
Ben Brown for David Robertson may be the best example of a traditional aggressive Dombrowski trade for a veteran rental, but even then, the Phillies were dealing from an area of strength. That strategy could also change with the Phillies looking to go on another run to the World Series, but that would entail dealing at least one of Andrew Painter, Griff McGarry or Mick Abel.
It’s a price the Phillies may not want to pay considering that the team already has too many first base/DH types, but then again, a lack of fit didn’t stop the Phillies from signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the same offseason.
It’s one of those crazy ideas that’s probably not going to happen, but it’s not crazy enough to completely dismiss.
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