If the Philadelphia Phillies are going to make a second consecutive run to the World Series, they’ll need better production from Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. They’ll also need the unsightly .378 OPS Nick Castellanos has posted since the All-Star Break to prove to be nothing more than a blip on the radar.
But while the second-half success of the Phillies may be most dependent on internal improvements, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowksi will need to look externally in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline to replace the right-handed power production that the team lost when Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL late in Spring Training. No one has entirely ruled out a miracle postseason return for Hoskins, but the Phillies certainly can’t count on such a scenario. Nor can they take for granted they’ll be playing in the postseason given that Rob Thomson’s squad will enter play Tuesday a half game out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger — now with the Chicago Cubs after spending the first six years of his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers — has been a popular name thrown around by Phillies fans as a potential trade target. And between his postseason experience and positional flexibility, Bellinger should absolutely be someone that the Phillies consider.
But what should also be considered with Bellinger is there are some concerning underlying metrics. His batting average on balls in play this year is .338, compared to a .283 average in his career. His hard-hit percentage is at 27.4%, compared to a 39.2% career average. Bellinger has unquestionably bounced back after being non-tendered by the Dodgers this past offseason, but it’s fair to wonder if the degree to which he’s done so is sustainable.
What’s more, he’s a left-handed hitter, who you would be adding into a lineup that already includes Harper, Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. The 2009 Phillies are evidence that you can win with a very left-handed lineup if many of the lefties in question are stars, but the ideal candidate for the Phillies to plug into left field — assuming Harper continues to look good at first base — would be a right-handed hitter.
Enter, Teoscar Hernández of the Seattle Mariners.
Acquired in an offseason trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, Hernández is a former All-Star who won back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards in 2020 and 2021. In his first season with the Mariners, Hernández hasn’t performed up to that standard, as he’s slashing .242/.293/.421 with a league-leading 131 strikeouts. However, there aren’t the same concerning underlying metrics with Hernández, and the back of his baseball card tells us he’s a better player than what he’s shown so far in 2023.
RBIs are hardly a perfect metric, but between 2018 and 2022, Hernández’s 349 RBIs were 30th in baseball, just eight less than the aforementioned Hoskins. Over that same period, Hernández also hit 121 home runs, compared to 130 for Hoskins. The main difference between the two is that Hoskins walks at a higher clip. Hernández will strike out more than Hoskins would, but until this year, the difference in rate wasn’t as drastic.
History — and this year’s MLB Park Factors — also suggest that Hernández would benefit from playing his home games somewhere other than the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, which Statcast has rated as the least hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.
The bottom line offensively is that if you want to try to replace Hoskins’ production, Hernández is probably the closest you’re going to get via trade.
An area where Hernández gives you more value than Hoskins is that he’s an outfielder, one who is grading out quite well (seven defensive runs saved, two outs above average) for Seattle defensively this season. Granted, Hernández has played in right field for the Mariners this season, and would be asked to play left field primarily for the Phillies. But he has experience in left field, and also would be comfortable as a DH in the event the Phillies needed him in that role.
The main hurdle to clear is if the Mariners are going to sell or not. While they have a +27 run differential, Seattle is currently 50-50. After losing two games in a row, the Mariners are in fourth place in the AL West, 8 1/2 games back of the Texas Rangers. The Mariners are 5 1/2 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the junior circuit, and three teams are ahead of them — the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels — that would still miss the playoffs if the season ended today.
If the Mariners win five games in a row, perhaps they won’t sell. Regardless of what happens, Seattle isn’t going to do a major teardown — they were in the playoffs a season ago and likely will have postseason aspirations in 2024. But could president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto move some impending free agents before the trade deadline? Sure, it’s not like him to stand pat, one way or another. In an appearance on 710 AM in Seattle last week, the always-active DiPoto conceded that selling isn’t something the team has ruled out.
“We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller,” DiPoto said, “believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of ’how do we make the Mariners better?'”
The best way to make the Mariners organization better could be to trade Hernández, with the 30-year-old slated to become a free agent this offseason.
And the best way for a Phillies team in need of a right-handed power bat to proceed if they believe a deep playoff run is possible in 2023 is to make a move for Hernández, hoping he’ll help to make up for the loss of Hoskins.
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