The math is getting tricky on Cristopher Sánchez.
He’s pitching like one of the best arms in the Phillies’ starting rotation. Sánchez has a 3.34 ERA in his past six starts, a number that actually jumped quite a bit on Wednesday night due to a four-run, 7 1/3-inning outing that looks far worse on paper than Sánchez actually threw. He set a career high in innings — and strikeouts, with 10. He did it against the juggernaut Braves offense that clinched the NL East less than hour after he departed. He has a 3.40 ERA in 16 starts this season.
All that math spells good news for Sánchez, as does the fact that he’s trending upward at the right time. The issue? Different math is working against him.
The Phillies’ rotation is about to shrink — likely next week — from its current six-man state to five. And, if the team doesn’t disintegrate over the final two-and-a-half weeks of the season (losing five of seven and nine of 14 doesn’t help), that number would drop to four in the postseason.
Start with the latter, because the four who line up to start in a hypothetical playoffs should all be among the five who close out the regular season. Rob Thomson was asked Wednesday on the SportsRadio WIP Morning Show about his potential playoff rotation, and it seems the skipper more or less has his mind made up.
Here’s that clip — and please, note the framing of the question before yelling at Thomson for talking about a playoff rotation before the Phillies have punched their ticket.
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker. That leaves Sánchez and Michael Lorenzen as the two odd men out in October and one of them as the odd man out when the Phillies go from six to five in mid-to-late-September.
Recent history would favor Sánchez as the pick to remain in the rotation, with Lorenzen heading to the bullpen. Note the above figures, compared to the 7.96 ERA Lorenzen sports in the five starts since his Aug. 9 no-hitter. Sure, some regression to the mean is to be expected going forward; Lorenzen had a 3.58 ERA when he was traded to Philadelphia.
But with the Phillies just four games up on two separate teams for a playoff spot and the No. 1 Wild Card spot completely up for grabs, now, with 16 games remaining, is not the time to let the law of large numbers do its thing.
“I don’t really think about that,” Sánchez said through a translator after Wednesday’s loss to a group of reporters, including Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo, on the looming rotation shrinkage. “You’ve just gotta be ready. I’m gonna give my 100% if it’s in the bullpen or as a starting pitcher. It doesn’t matter.”
Sánchez gave the same type of answer when asked what he envisions of his role in October: Not sure, whatever the team needs.
Whatever the team needs has been what Sánchez has provided since the middle of June. Thrown into the starting rotation after struggling in Triple-A, a desperate attempt to fix the Phillies’ dreadful No. 5 starter woes, Sánchez took the job, ran with it and immediately put that problem to bed. In terms of sheer performance, Sánchez has pitched closer to the front end of the starting rotation than the back.
What that means going forward is a decision not in Sánchez’s hands. But he’s certainly done his part to make said decision difficult.
Must-read (or watch) Phillies content
- Thomson ruffled some feathers on Wednesday when speaking about Ronald Acuña Jr.’s home run celebration the previous night. Phillies Nation‘s Tim Kelly wrote about it, and all its context.
- Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo brings your latest Rhys Hoskins injury update: Optimism is fine, but make it cautious.
- Also, read her story on Sánchez’s outing and the Phillies’ loss to the Braves on Wednesday.
- The latest Phillies Therapy gets into Michael Lorenzen’s role, Orion Kerkering, Johan Rojas and more.
- Speaking of Kerkering, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote about him and his slider.
- Here’s Thomson expanding on his Acuña comment, while clearly looking extremely bothered by the fact that his first one went viral.
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