Is Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber better than Adam Dunn was?

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is having one of the strangest seasons in MLB history. He’ll enter play Friday with 43 home runs, 94 RBIs and 118 walks, numbers that would often lead to MVP consideration. However, he also leads baseball with 192 strikeouts, has seen his batting average (.198) slip back under the Mendoza line and has -21 defensive runs saved in left field. 

If Schwarber was a political candidate, he wouldn’t have any moderate positions, he would be hard left or hard right on everything. In many senses, he has become the poster child in today’s game for the three-true-outcomes approach, with the bulk of his at-bats ending with a home run, walk or strikeout. 

Perhaps the GOAT of the three-true-outcomes approach is Adam Dunn, who hit titanic home runs and walked at one of the highest clips in the league, while also regularly finishing among the league leaders in strikeouts. 

As Schwarber’s season has gotten increased attention in recent weeks, he’s been compared quite a bit to Dunn. But does the comparison fit, or did the baseball world just not appreciate how good Dunn was during the height of his powers? 

Let’s start with this: Schwarber’s days as a regular fielder should be over. As Bryce Harper moves further away from his Tommy John surgery, the DH spot has been opened up on a more consistent basis for Schwarber. If Schwarber has to play 40 games in left field in 2024, so be it. But among qualified defenders, Schwarber has the worst marks in both defensive runs saved (-21) and outs above average (-19). You have to live with a lot of strikeouts to get Schwarber’s tremendous power production. You don’t have to live with his defense, though, which has gotten drastically worse over the last two seasons. 

Dunn finished his career with -165 defensive runs saved, struggling at both corner outfield positions and first base. While he actually saw some offensive decline once he moved to the American League and was able to DH, like Schwarber now, Dunn would have been more valuable if he didn’t play in the field. 

With that aside, here’s a look at some key offensive numbers for comparison. 

Home Runs

• Schwarber now has five seasons where he’s hit 30 or more home runs. That puts him halfway to Dunn’s 10 seasons of 30 or more home runs.

• For the second year in a row, Schwarber has hit 40+ home runs. Dunn, meanwhile, had six seasons of hitting 40 or more home runs, including doing so five years in a row from 2004-2008, primarily with the Cincinnati Reds. 

• Dunn did only hit 45 or more home runs in one season, crushing 46 in 2004. Schwarber has a chance to eclipse that before 2023 is out. He hit 46 home runs in 2022, and currently has 43 with a few weeks remaining in the 2023 campaign. 

• Still, the longevity Dunn had as one of the league’s elite power hitters was definitely taken for granted. He finished his career with 462 home runs over 14 seasons. He was another 40-home run season away from really testing out the theory of 500 career home runs making you an automatic addition to the Hall of Fame. 

• Schwarber is sitting at 242 career home runs. At the age of 30, Schwarber has a chance to surpass Dunn’s career total, but that can hardly be taken for granted given that he’s more than 200 home runs shy currently. 

Walks

• Schwarber is just one walk behind Juan Soto for the league lead in bases on balls. However, his 118 walks in 2023 mark the first time he’s ever topped 100 walks in a single season. By comparison, Dunn walked 100 or more times in a season on eight occasions. Dunn led baseball in walks in 2008 and 2012. 

• Dunn posted a career-high 128 walks in 2002, the fifth-highest total in single-season history for the Reds, trailing only Hall of Famer Joe Morgan and likely Hall of Famer Joey Votto (who walked more than 128 times in three seasons). 

• Schwarber’s 118 walks are already eighth in a single season in Phillies history. He’s only 11 away from from Lenny Dykstra’s single-season franchise record of 129, set in 1993. 

Strikeouts

• Schwarber set a new career-high with 200 strikeouts in 2022, and may surpass that in 2023 as he has 192 at the time of publication. The 200 strikeouts that Schwarber posted in his first season with the Phillies set a new franchise record, topping the 199 times Ryan Howard struck out during both the 2007 and 2008 seasons. 

• While Schwarber is on track to lead baseball in strikeouts in consecutive seasons, Dunn did so on four occasions during his career (2004-2006; 2012). Dunn’s 222 strikeouts in 2012 are the franchise record for the Chicago White Sox, and only Mark Reynolds – who struck out 223 times while playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009 – has ever gone down more on strikes in a single season. 

Other Stats of Note

• Dunn drove in 100 or more runs on six occasions. Schwarber has actually never driven in 100 runs, but he’s sitting at 94, so that will likely change this year. Also, because he leads off, Schwarber likely doesn’t get as many RBI opportunities as Dunn, who was typically hitting somewhere in the heart of the order. 

• Schwarber has an .823 OPS in 2023, and as of now, his career OPS is .832. Dunn finished his 14-year career with an .854 OPS. In terms of OPS+, 100 is considered the average. Schwarber’s career OPS+ is 121, as opposed to 124 from Dunn. 

• Dunn was a .237 career hitter. Schwarber is a .227 career hitter.

• Schwarber’s top single-season WAR total — according to FanGraphs — came when he posted a 2.9 mark in 2021, a season split between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox. Dunn posted a career-high 5.3 WAR in 2004, finishing his career at 25.6. To this point, Schwarber’s career WAR is at 14.6.

• For whatever it’s worth, Schwarber has hit .242 with 15 home runs, 27 RBIs and an .899 OPS in 52 career postseason games. He helped the Cubs to win the 2016 World Series, and was at the forefront of the Phillies winning the 2022 NL Pennant. Dunn never played in a postseason game, though it’s fair to point out that there are more postseason spots now than there were during Dunn’s career. You also don’t get to pick what team drafts you.

So Who’s Better?

• Dunn hit 462 career home runs, including swatting 38 or more on eight occasions. Schwarber may very well be on his way to doing something similar, but Dunn has already done it. What could make Schwarber better is if he hits 500 home runs, but the odds obviously aren’t in his favor to reach such a high career total.

• The extreme nature of Schwarber’s 2023 season is comparable to what Dunn did in 2012 while playing for the White Sox. That season, Dunn slashed .204/.333/.468 with 41 home runs, 96 RBIs, 105 walks, 222 strikeouts, an .800 OPS and a 2.1 WAR. Schwarber is currently slashing .198/.348/.475 with 43 home runs, 94 RBIs, 118 walks, 192 strikeouts, an .823 OPS and a 1.4 WAR.

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