The qualifying offer for the 2023-24 offseason will reportedly be valued at approximately $20.5 million, according to a Wednesday report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
The number is calculated by averaging the top 125 MLB player salaries for the 2023 season, and should that figure hold, it would set the record since the qualifying offer was instituted in 2012 — breaking the previous high of $19.65 million last year.
The Phillies have two eligible players for whom extending a qualifying offer might make sense.
Regardless of whether they intend to keep him around in the long run, they’ll almost certainly give one to Aaron Nola, who’s all but certain to reject it and test the free-agent waters.
Should Nola then sign elsewhere, that qualifying offer rejection would give the Phillies a compensatory draft pick, after the fourth round — given that the Phillies were over the luxury tax in 2023. There’s also the possibility that Nola rejects the QO and signs with the Phillies anyway — in which case the Phillies, of course, wouldn’t receive a draft pick.
Rhys Hoskins was headed toward a lucrative multi-year deal until he tore his ACL toward the end of Spring Training back in March. Now, after having not appeared in a Major League game (apart from Spring) since the 2022 World Series — assuming his longshot attempt at a late-October comeback doesn’t materialize — his market looks a lot different.
If the Phillies extend Hoskins a qualifying offer, would it make sense for him to join the small group of players — currently 13 of 124 — to accept it? The $20.5 million amount is likely more than Hoskins would receive on an annual basis if he signed a multi-year deal this offseason. He could decide to take the financial stability over the potential upside, or he could decide that one healthy, productive year would net him an opportunity too enticing to pass up — all while making a hefty sum in the process and ending his Phillies tenure (if he signs elsewhere in 2024) on a better note than it did as things currently stand.
The likelihood of Hoskins accepting that offer plays into whether the Phillies decide to extend one in the first place. If they simply don’t see how he’d fit into the 2024 roster, given Bryce Harper’s uncertainty about his long-term status in the outfield, Alec Bohm’s 2023 breakout (or near-breakout), Kyle Schwarber’s defensive ineptitude and a whole host of other factors — and they think he might be inclined to accept — risking north of $20 million on him might not be wise.
But if they think Hoskins would test the market anyway — or if they’re comfortable with that price tag and envision him as a valuable part of the 2024 team — the Phillies could give him a big decision to make shortly after the end of the World Series.
Must-read (or watch) Phillies content
Nick Castellanos could’ve just said he changed his mind. He wanted to let it drop, then he decided he’d charged in enough, so he caught it. That would’ve been straightforward.
Instead, true to form as ever, it was something about a voice in his head that he only hears when he’s hitting except for this one time when he was fielding and it changed everything. Or something.
Garrett Stubbs dove even deeper into that supernatural entity a few hours after that memorable moment led to — finally — a memorable win.
“I already told [Castellanos], I was screaming at the top of my lungs [for him] to drop it. And he referred to the devil and the angel on his shoulder to me,” Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reported. “One says drop it, and one says make an outstanding play. And thankfully he went with the outstanding play.”
Knock him however you want. You can’t call him boring.
- More from The Athletic‘s Matt Gelb on Castellanos and “the never normal Phillies.”
- Here’s Phillies Nation‘s Ty Daubert’s recap on that wild affair.
- MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki wrote about the second-biggest but most important takeaway from that win: Nola’s strong six innings and the numbers behind them.
- Phillies Nation‘s Matt McAllister wrote about five questions the Phillies must answer before the postseason.
- This is pretty awesome.
Former Phillie Nation
- Because you can’t get enough content from that play, notice who he threw out at the plate: Former Phillie Luke Williams, who stole second and third to put the pressure on before a voice popped into Castellanos’ head.
- Andrew McCutchen wished a speedy recovery to Charlie Manuel in the best way possible.
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