The Phillies enter the month of September with a greater than 95% chance of making the postseason.
It’s a strange position for the Phillies to be in. All they need to do is not completely blow it and they should be in the postseason for a second-consecutive season.
The Phillies are three games up on the Chicago Cubs for the first Wild Card spot and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The lead is essentially four games since the Phillies have the first tiebreaker (head-to-head record) over the Cubs. Easy, right?
The goal is to finish the season in that top spot. It’s going to be tough for an opposing team to take two of three in front of a deranged Citizens Bank Park crowd, but some potential matchups are going to be tougher than others.
Here are the three toughest potential NL Wild Card matchups for the Phillies.
No. 1 — Milwaukee Brewers
Facing the Brewers pitching staff in a short series is a scary proposition.
The Phillies won’t see staff aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff this weekend in Milwaukee, but out of all the contenders in the National League playoff field, the Brewers probably have the best 1-2 punch.
Burnes’ five best starts this season, according to the Game Score metric, have come against playoff contenders, including the Phillies. Woodruff is healthy and has pitched well against the Phillies in the past. Freddy Peralta has been the best starter in the National League in the second half, according to FanGraphs WAR. Closer Devin Williams has a 0.51 ERA since July 7. The bridge to Williams is just as tantalizing.
If the Phillies, a team known for its many late-game comebacks, are down by multiple runs at the end of the game, they’re going to have a tough time coming back. That was evident when the Brewers came to Philadelphia at the end of July and took 2-of-3.
The offense has a few intriguing rookies and the top-of-the-lineup duo of Christian Yelich and William Contreras have both been good at the plate. The Phillies pitching staff should match up well against the Brewers lineup. Both Yelich and Contreras have drastic platoon splits, so it will require some mixing and matching to shut them down.
Milwaukee currently has a three-game lead over the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. The Phillies could face Milwaukee in round one if they fall to the No. 6 seed and Milwaukee maintains their division lead or if the Cubs win the Central and the Brewers and Phillies are the first two Wild Card teams.
But here’s something to keep in mind. The Brewers and Cubs meet for one final series in the final weekend of the season at American Family Field with the season series tied at 5-5. If you’re a Phillies fan, you should root for the NL Central race to remain close through the final week of the season. Both teams may have to burn their best starters in that series. That could lead to the Phillies having a big advantage over either of those teams in the Wild Card round.
Embed from Getty ImagesNo. 2 — Chicago Cubs
Don’t be fooled by the Phillies’ 5-1 record against the Cubs this year.
The Cubs have seen their playoff odds rise from 43.7% on Aug. 18 to 76.2% to end the month of August. They went 18-9 in August and are coming off a big series win against the aforementioned Brewers. Chicago is just a different team in the second half of the season.
Dansby Swanson is having a great first year in Chicago, Cody Bellinger has bounced back in a big way and Christopher Morel loves homering against the Phillies.
Justin Steele, the Cubs’ best starter, has a 2.69 ERA and is in the NL Cy Young race. He threw six shutout innings in a 2-1 loss over the Phillies back in May.
Marcus Stroman is reportedly a “long shot” to pitch again this season, so the Cubs’ playoff rotation is Steele, Kyle Hendricks and either Jameson Tallion or top prospect Jordan Wicks. The Cubs are more vulnerable in a three-game Wild Card series than the Brewers in the event that they need to use any of their top starters in the last series.
The Cubs bullpen isn’t stacked with names, but they’re getting production from Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. Yes, that Mark Leiter Jr.
If the current standings hold, the Phillies will play the Cubs in a three-game Wild Card series at Citizens Bank Park.
Embed from Getty ImagesNo. 3 — San Francisco Giants
It’s a real toss-up between San Francisco, Arizona and Miami for the No. 3 spot. The Diamondbacks’ 1-2 duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is underrated, but they have the worst bullpen ERA in the second half. The Reds, who picked up Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader on Thursday, are streaky offensively and just do not have enough pitching. Miami’s offense has been better in the second half and they do have great starting pitching, but they’ve never felt like a true threat all season.
Speaking of threats, Gabe Kapler managing a best-of-three playoff series sounds terrifying. Not because the Giants have a great chance of upsetting the Phillies on the road, but because nobody wants to see Kapler use nine relievers in five innings again.
A short series calls for Kapler ball on steroids. The Giants would start Logan Webb in a potential Game 1, and either Alex Cobb or top prospect Kyle Harrison in Game 2. Cobb nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start and Harrison looked better in his second outing than he did in his first career start against the Phillies. A parade of relievers are set to follow these guys.
If Williams is the best closer among the contenders, Camilo Doval is probably No. 2, despite the recent meltdowns. The Rogers brothers are also tough to face late in the game.
It is hard to envision the Giants getting through a longer series playing their brand of baseball, but they can absolutely steal a three-game series.
And if the Phillies struggle in September and have to go on the road for the first playoff series, San Francisco is the last place the Phillies want to go.
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