On multiple occasions throughout the course of the postseason, Aaron Nola indicated a desire to remain with the Philadelphia Phillies beyond the 2023 season.
The interest is mutual, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did acknowledge in last week’s year-end press conference that the Phillies need to be prepared for the possibility they will have to replace Nola if the two sides can’t reach a long-term deal and the longest-tenured player on the team departs in free agency.
“We hope to retain him,” Dombrowski said of Nola. “But if we don’t, to me, that would be our No. 1 area, we need to then replace him. We need to be in position where we have somebody else that would be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. So yes, it’s either Aaron or somebody else.”
The St. Louis Cardinals haven’t been shy about their interest in Nola, while the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs are among the contenders who make sense as possible suitors for Nola.
If Nola signs elsewhere, there are question marks with a variety of the other free agent options, such as Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That may leave Dombrowski and the Phillies to replace Nola via the trade market.
Here are five front-line arms the Phillies could attempt to pair at the top of their rotation with Zack Wheeler.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
A three-time All-Star, Burnes will be pitching in a contract year in 2024. The 29-year-old edged out the aforementioned Wheeler to win the 2021 NL Cy Young Award, and led all senior circuit pitchers with a 1.069 WHIP in 2023. It doesn’t feel especially likely the Brewers will make the investment to retain him beyond 2024, and if that is indeed the case, it would make sense for Milwaukee to trade him this winter and begin to retool.
For what it’s worth, Burnes’ rotation mate, Brandon Woodruff, would have been an interesting target as well. However, Woodruff — also set to become a free agent after the 2024 season — recently underwent shoulder surgery that could cost him the bulk of what would have been his contract year. Woodruff’s absence, though, may make the Brewers more resigned to their best path moving forward being to trade Burnes.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Bieber won the AL Cy Young Award during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and has two other top-seven finishes for the award (2019 and 2022) on his resume.
However, a shoulder injury limited Bieber to 16 starts in 2021, and because of right elbow inflammation, he only logged 128 innings in 2023. The Phillies would have to assess whether they believe Bieber has just dealt with a couple injuries and will be healthy moving forward (like Wheeler has been since signing) or is injury-prone. Nola’s greatest attribute has been his reliability, so if you’re looking to replace him, you would want someone who you can trust to take the ball every five days.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Glasnow is a name worth mentioning because he has a 3.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP in parts of six seasons with the Rays. He’s also only pitched 388 1/3 innings over those campaigns in Tampa Bay, as opposed to the 1,065 1/3 innings Nola has logged since the start of 2018.
The supremely-talented-but-oft-injured Glasnow is due $25 million in 2024, his contract year. When he’s on the mound, Glasnow is probably an upgrade over Nola. But Nola makes 32 starts a season, while Glasnow set a career-high with 21 starts this past season.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
The first three names on this list are all entering contract years, meaning the Phillies would likely have to give up a decent haul to acquire them with no real guarantees of getting more than one year of their services. Gilbert is the opposite, as he won’t become a free agent until after the 2027 season.
It’s unclear if the Mariners would actually pull the trigger on a trade of the 26-year-old righty, who has posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 376 1/3 innings pitched the last two seasons. Then again, Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto loves to make trades, perhaps to a fault, so we wouldn’t bet against Gilbert being traded.
It’s fair to wonder, though, if the Phillies have the young talent to match up well in a trade with the Mariners. The Phillies may be best-suited trading for a starter in a contract year and/or using their financial might to purchase an arm in free agency.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Cease is a tough trade candidate to figure out. He finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2022, posting a minuscule 2.20 ERA over 184 innings pitched. He disappointed in 2023, though, finishing the season with a 4.58 ERA and 3.72 FIP across 177 frames.
The best version of Cease is one of the league’s elite arms. But he’s led the AL in walks (2020 and 2022) and wild pitches (2021 and 2023) each on two occasions. Getting away from the perpetually-disappointing White Sox would probably help him, but Chicago will likely be looking for a large return given that Cease can’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season.
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