The Philadelphia Phillies probably don’t yet employ every player who will be on their Opening Day 26-man roster in 2024, but it sounds as though the key ones are already in the fold, and making sure one of them isn’t entering his final season in red pinstripes will now be the focus for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki reports that while the Phillies did mount a serious effort to sign Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, now that the Los Angeles Dodgers landed the coveted righty, the focus in Philadelphia will shift internally. Zolecki writes that “the No. 1 priority is signing Wheeler to a contract extension.”
The Phillies are typically very good at setting public expectations when they plan to make a major move. Years before Bryce Harper and Manny Machado became free agents, it was clear the Phillies planned to land one of the two stars. It was the worst-kept secret in baseball during the 2022 season that the Phillies were eyeing Trea Turner in free agency after the season.
So when Phillies Nation asked Dombrowski in November about possibly extending Wheeler’s deal before his contract year and the veteran executive didn’t shy away from the possibility, it was eyebrow raising.
“He’s been tremendous since he’s been here, and we look at him as a real stalwart of our organization,” Dombrowski continued. “So we would hope that he would be here for a long time.”
Hall of Famer Jayson Stark added in an appearance on 97.5 The Fanatic this offseason that the Phillies are “more committed to re-signing Wheeler than they were Aaron Nola.” Considering the Phillies did ultimately re-sign Nola to the tune of seven years and $172 million, that nugget feels especially noteworthy.
The question will be whether the Phillies can present Wheeler with an offer that convinces him and his agent — Al Goetz of Jet Sports Management — to pass up on a second chance to test free agency.
Wheeler landed a five-year/$118 million deal in free agency from the Phillies after the 2019 season, but his perception around the sport is entirely different now than it was then. With the New York Mets, Wheeler was an intriguing arm who had dealt with injuries but flashed frontline potential. Since joining the Phillies, Wheeler has been a workhorse who is fourth among all starting pitchers in innings pitched (629 1/3) and first in WAR (19.3). He’s also gained a reputation as one of the top postseason pitchers of this era.
But while Wheeler could potentially make more money by testing free agency again next offseason, there are other considerations that may make him more likely to sign an extension this winter, even if it’s for less than he could get free agency.
From a leverage standpoint, Wheeler is a 33-year-old power pitcher who is a veteran of Tommy John surgery and has racked up a ton of innings over the last five seasons. There’s potentially more money to be made if Wheeler successfully bets on himself and plays out the final year of his current deal, but a major injury and/or velocity decline could cost him tens of millions.
Logistically, Wheeler’s wife, Dominique, is from New Jersey and proximity to there appeared to play a part in his decision to sign with the Phillies after the 2019 season. The couple has since had two kids, and announced during the 2023 postseason run that they are expecting a third child. One would think that’s only strengthened their desire to remain close to family.
Zolecki reported in late November that while the Phillies hadn’t yet presented Wheeler with an exact offer, there had been preliminary extension discussions and the belief was a pact would be presented to the Gold Glove pitcher eventually.
From here, the three-year/$130 million deal that Max Scherzer signed with the New York Mets in free agency prior to the 2022 season could be an interesting comp. Scherzer is more accomplished from a career sense, but Wheeler has pitched at his level in recent years and would be a free agent before his age-35 season, as opposed to the three-time Cy Young Award winner hitting the market prior to his age-37 campaign. Granted, in this scenario, Wheeler wouldn’t be maximizing his leverage by reaching the open market, but a deal slightly larger than the one Scherzer signed with the Mets — maybe with a fourth year guaranteed or an attainable vesting option — might be fair for both sides.
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