Phillies named ‘dark horse’ for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, bidding reportedly over $300 million

There has been a lot of Yoshinobu Yamamoto news to digest over the past 24 hours. The Phillies, according to a report from Matt Gelb of The Athletic, made an offer to the star Japanese free agent pitcher. The San Francisco Giants, as of Thursday night, were reportedly told they were out. The Red Sox are sending signals that suggest they are pivoting to other options. There were even rumors circulating that Yamamoto planned to attend a Los Angeles Rams game with Shohei Ohtani. That turned out to be untrue.

The latest update from Jon Heyman of the New York Post is an exciting one for Phillies fans. Heyman reports that the bidding for Yamamoto has exceeded $300 million. The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and New York Yankees are seen as the favorites, but according to Heyman, a source described the Phillies as a “dark horse” team to land Yamamoto.

A separate report from Andy Martino of SNY says that the teams involved in the bidding “hope that the process will conclude on Friday.”

Yamamoto’s official posting window ends Jan. 4. Any team that signs him will have to pay a posting fee to his NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, in addition to the contract. It’s unclear if that $300 million price tag includes the posting fee. The fee is equal to 20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of the remainder of the deal. The posting fee does not count towards a team’s luxury tax payroll.

The bidding for Yamamoto has reached this price point because it is rare that a pitcher with No.1 starter in MLB potential reaches free agency at age 25. He has a career 1.72 ERA across seven seasons in NPB. He is a three-time Pacific League MVP Award winner and a three-time winner of the Sawamura, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young.

The Phillies, even before signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year deal, were rumored to have strong interest in Yamamoto. The idea of actually landing him, however, never seemed feasible. It can’t be overstated how much the Phillies are at a disadvantage compared to other strong suitors, like the Yankees and Dodgers. They have never signed a Japanese free agent straight out of NPB. So Taguchi and Tadahito Iguchi are the only two players from Japan to have played for the Phillies.

While LA has the geography (and Ohtani) advantage and New York is a bigger market, you can reasonably argue that his best chance to win is in Philadelphia. If he signs with the Phillies, he would join what is already considered one of the best rotations in baseball with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez already in the mix. Yamamoto with Wheeler, Nola and Suárez would give the Phillies by far the best combination of four starters to have for a seven-game playoff series in MLB. If the idea of being a franchise’s first Japanese star is appealing to Yamamoto, signing with Philadelphia would make sense.

Even if the Phillies do not land Yamamoto, it’s encouraging that ownership is willing to approve such a transaction, though reporting from MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki suggest that the Phillies would have to cut payroll to make the Yamamoto signing work. What that means is only something we would find out if the Phillies pull off a massive upset and sign Yamamoto.

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