There was some initial sticker shock Monday morning when the terms of Zack Wheeler’s three-year, $126 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies were reported. But there shouldn’t have been.
The reality is that this wasn’t about acknowledging that Wheeler’s original five-year, $118 million deal turned out to be a bargain for the Phillies. It was fair market value for a pitcher that’s been arguably the best in the sport since putting on red pinstripes. And three additional years with the Phillies will give Wheeler a chance to go from being a peer with someone like Cliff Lee — an elite, elite pitcher over a relatively short period with the team — to Cole Hamels and some of the greatest arms in franchise history.
Since joining the Phillies in 2020, Wheeler is fourth in FIP (2.90), fourth in innings pitched (629 1/3) and first in WAR (19.3). He was the author of one of the greatest regular-season starts in franchise history on Aug. 8, 2021, striking out 11 and allowing just two hits over a complete-game shutout against the New York Mets, on the same day that the late-Roy Halladay’s No. 34 was retired. Wheeler’s body of work over four seasons with the Phillies, like Halladay’s was, has been good enough to earn induction onto the team’s Wall of Fame.
But with all due respect to Lee and Halladay — two of the greatest arms to ever suit up for the Phillies — Wheeler is already on their level as a Phillie. And with four more years on the Phillies, he’s likely to move past them and further up the list of the greatest starters in franchise history.
Let’s be clear, no one is catching Hall of Famers Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts and Grover Cleveland Alexander. Those are the three best pitchers in Phillies history, and considering how much more was asked of starters during their respective careers, it’s going to be hard for anyone to ever catch them from a statistical sense.
Wheeler didn’t join the Phillies until his age-30 season, and while he’s now signed through his age-37 campaign, he mentioned multiple times in Monday morning’s press conference that he doesn’t want to pitch until he’s “old old,” seemingly referring to Hall of Fame-caliber arms like Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander pitching into their 40s. Maybe he’ll change his mind, but it would still be nearly impossible for him to catch Carlton, Roberts or Alexander. But Hamels, Jim Bunning and Curt Schilling? Wheeler could end up with similar Phillies resumes as those three franchise legends.
After just four seasons with the Phillies, Wheeler is already 16th on the franchise’s all-time list among WAR for starting pitchers at 19.3. He has a realistic chance to pass Rick Wise (19.4), Jimmy Ring (20.4), Tully Sparks (20.6), Lee (21.6), Larry Christenson (22.2) and Eppa Rixey (24.2) to move into the top 10 in franchise history in 2024. It’s probably just a matter of when Wheeler passes Bunning (31.2). Schilling (38.6) and Hamels (40.5) are more long-term goals, but it’s at least within the realm of possibility.
Where Schilling and Hamels really enhanced their Phillies legacies was in the postseason.
When you factor in Schilling’s postseason success with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox, he might be the greatest playoff pitcher of all time. 1993 was the only season that Schilling pitched in the postseason for the Phillies, but he won the NLCS MVP that year and tossed a complete-game shutout in Game 5 of the World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. In his lone postseason with the Phillies, Schilling posted a 2.59 ERA and struck out 28 batters over four starts.
Hamels, of course, was the NLCS and World Series MVP for the Phillies in 2008. Even with his disastrous 2009 postseason factored in, Hamels posted a 3.09 ERA over the course of five playoff runs with the Phillies.
Like Halladay, it took Wheeler a long time to get a chance to pitch in the postseason, as he didn’t make his playoff debut until he was in his age-32 season. But while he doesn’t have the postseason no-hitter on his resume that Halladay does, Wheeler has done just about everything else across two playoff runs.
Wheeler has a 2.42 ERA to show over 63 1/3 playoff innings pitched. As PHLY‘s John Foley noted, Wheeler’s 0.726 postseason WHIP is the lowest in MLB history, minimum 40 innings pitched. The Phillies weren’t able to pull out a win in Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but Wheeler not allowing a hit over 1 2/3 innings of relief just three days after he was the winning pitcher in Game 5 of the series was a pretty remarkable individual performance.
Perhaps the most interesting comparison at the conclusion of their respective Phillies careers will be between Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
In terms of counting stats, Nola will blow Wheeler away. He was a first-round draft pick by the Phillies in 2014, and assuming he completes the seven-year/$172 million deal he signed with the team in November, he’ll have spent 16 seasons in red pinstripes. Nola is already sixth all-time in WAR (33.9) and fifth in strikeouts (1,582) among Phillies starters. By the time his career concludes, he’ll be among the top three or so in just about every pitching category for the team.
Still, most would argue that over the last four seasons, Wheeler has been the best pitcher on the Phillies. Heck, Nola has said Wheeler is the best pitcher in baseball and believes that his teammate should get the nod over him on Opening Day. Nola is going to spend around double the time with the Phillies that Wheeler does, but comparing their best five to seven-year stretches with the franchise will be a fun exercise one day. Regardless of how that pans out, the Phillies are extremely lucky to have two of the few remaining workhorses in the sport atop their rotation for the foreseeable future.
And with at least four more seasons in Philadelphia, Wheeler has a chance to go from being one of the better starters in Phillies history to one of the greatest to ever take the mound for one of the oldest franchises in the sport.
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