Opening Day is a little over two weeks away. It could not come sooner for the Phillies, who have only a few roster spots in the back of the bullpen and bench up for grabs. This is the part of spring training everyone dreads. More injuries are beginning to creep up as players intensify their ramp up in preparation for the regular season. All Rob Thomson can do right now is hope nothing terrible happens.
But the games will begin to matter soon and when they do, here are six questions to keep in mind over the next six months as the Phillies begin their quest to return to October and win it all.
How will the roster evolve in-season?
There was a lot of talk this year about the Phillies returning many of the same players from the 2023 squad and how “running it back” never works. But over the last two years, the roster has gone through multiple dramatic in-season transformations.
The Phillies arrived at camp last season with Rhys Hoskins as the first baseman and Bryce Harper expected to be out until the All-Star break. Bailey Falter and Matt Strahm began the year in the rotation. Remember Joe Girardi’s plan at third base to open the 2022 season? He wanted to split playing time between Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Stott’s MLB debut ended up being his only full game at the position.
Stability could be the theme of this year’s Phillies, but some roster turnover is inevitable. Regulars will get hurt and someone we’re not thinking about will contribute in a big way. This year’s Jeff Hoffman is probably in another big league camp right now. The roster could change and change dramatically, putting the “running it back” narrative to bed.
Will the Phillies’ plan for Johan Rojas work?
Speaking of roster transformation, few could have predicted at the beginning of last season that Johan Rojas would be the team’s starting center fielder in the postseason. His call-up at the beginning of the second half was supposed to be temporary, but he batted .302 in 149 at-bats and that was enough for him to stick. He provided tremendous value defensively in center field, but was exposed at the plate against higher level pitching in the postseason.
The Phillies have two paths to choose with Rojas. They could send him down to Triple A and have him develop offensively there or they could keep him on the big league roster and see how he fares leading up to the trade deadline. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic indicated in his latest roster projection, the Phillies are leaning towards the latter.
The Rojas conundrum always goes back to this. He went 0-for-15 in the NLDS, but that didn’t matter because the rest of the lineup combined to score 20 runs in four games. When the big bats went cold in the NLCS, every spot in the lineup mattered a lot more and Rojas’ offensive struggles became a big problem. The solution could be making sure there are better replacements off the bench for Rojas come playoff time.
Can the Phillies significantly improve chasing issues?
Hitting coach Kevin Long says the Phillies have a plan to help the club lay off pitches out of the strike zone and lower the team’s strikeout rate. There will be meetings on swing decisions and more focused work in the batting cages prior to the game. Will it work? Getting improvement out of a mostly veteran group seems impossible, but it isn’t. Look no further than the 2022 and 2023 Braves, who lowered their strikeout rate from 24.6% (third worst) in 2022 to 20.6% (fifth best) in 2023.
Is a faster start enough to keep the Phillies in NL East race?
After going 23-27 over the first two months of 2022, the Braves are 182-92 in the regular season over the last two years. They are a juggernaut and it’s going to take a lot for the Phillies to win the NL East over Atlanta. It should be closer this year. The Phillies’ improvement on defense should make them a better regular season team. The Braves still have the edge when it comes to starting pitching depth, but there’s also no way Atlanta’s offense can be as good as it was last year, when the team posted a .501 slugging percentage.
The Phillies were eight games out of first place by June 1 last season. If you eliminate the first two months and go by the standings from June to the end of the regular season, the Phillies would have been … 12.5 games out of the first place. A better start is not the difference between the Phillies winning the NL East and the Phillies being a wild card team. They are going to have to count on significant regression from the Braves.
Will the pitching continue to remain healthy come playoff time?
Only two pitchers, Sandy Alcantara and Gerrit Cole, have combined to throw more innings over the last four years than Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Alcantara is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and Cole recently underwent an MRI after experiencing elbow discomfort. This isn’t to suggest that Wheeler and Nola are next, but these injuries are a reminder that the Phillies’ success hinges on the top two in the rotation remaining healthy and it’s not a guarantee.
The Phillies have gone into the last two postseasons with no major pitching injuries. Wheeler and Nola have combined to pitch in 42% of the Phillies’ postseason innings over the last two seasons. The Phillies probably have enough depth to withstand a bullpen injury, but losing either one of Nola or Wheeler is a worst case scenario for the team and significantly impacts their chances in October. That’s why it is important for the Phillies to win when they have a chance and their chances are much higher with Wheeler and Nola available in October.
Who else will emerge in the NL?
If the Braves, Dodgers and Phillies are the three-best teams in the National League, who is the fourth? The answer may be the pennant-winning Diamondbacks. They are an ascending team who could be a force in the NL. Corbin Carroll is a superstar and they have intriguing young talent in Gabriel Moreno, Brandon Pfaadt and Alek Thomas. A big concern anytime a team goes on a long run is whether or not the pitching staff can bounce back from the intense workload and short layoff.
The Reds, who narrowly missed out on a wild card spot, could be this year’s Diamondbacks. They added veteran pitching depth to go with their underrated crop of young starters and have an enigma in Elly De La Cruz along with a bunch of other talented young position players. Health is everything, however, and the Phillies’ best possible wild card round matchup last year was the Reds because they had a depleted rotation.
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Bawb Eff
March 14, 2024 at 8:23 am
Rojas hasn’t done anything this Spring to prove he can hit MLB pitching at this point in his career. I know his defense is world-class, but is it enough to off-set a .100 average? He was so bad in the post-season it would have been better to just let the pitchers hit 9th.