The Phillies’ offense has a problem, and the problem is that the Phillies’ offense is terrible.
They’re a game over .500, a month and a week after being 9-19, because of their pitching staff. That mostly means the starting rotation, with a historic ace threatening a record, another ace again in Cy Young contention and a $27 million man getting on a roll.
But the bullpen has held its own too. The group’s 3.19 xERA (relevant because of the Phillies’ league-worst defense, per defensive runs saved) is second in baseball, as is its 9.79 K/9. Its 3.03 BB/9 is third.
Don’t confuse production with depth, though. And definitely don’t confuse it with ambidexterity.
Here’s the current bullpen corps, ranked by trustworthiness, 59 games in.
9 — Nolan Hoffman
Hoffman has allowed two runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings this year, with three walks to two strikeouts. Of his three appearances, one was in a doubleheader and one was in mop-up duty. He was called up when Aaron Nola went on paternity leave, and he’ll likely be back in Triple-A, where he’s struck out more than 13 batters per nine, thereafter.
8 — Tanner Banks
Probably the biggest year-to-year disappointment in the bullpen, Banks has a 6.75 ERA this year, and it went up, not down, in May. His WHIP is over 2.00. Most concerning: Lefties, who hit .175/.213/.243 against him last year, are hitting .350/.409/.450 off him this year. That’s just as productive as righties have been. He’d been a pleasant surprise since his deadline-time 2024 trade, but with diminished velocity and spin, plus a nearly tripled walk rate from last year, it’s been ugly.
7 — Tim Mayza
Remember when Mayza was drawing tongue-in-cheek Billy Wagner comps in mid-April? Since April 14, his eighth of 23 outings: 5.30 ERA, 18 hits in 18 2/3 innings. He’s still seeing the uptick in velocity that he brought into the season, but he’s not inducing enough chase or limiting enough hard contact.
6 — José Alvarado
Look at Alvarado’s Baseball Savant page, and you’ll like what you see: 98th percentile chase rate, 90th percentile whiff rate, 97th percentile barrel rate, 92nd percentile hard-hit rate. And yet, lefties have a 1.025 OPS against Alvarado, he’s allowed 12.6 hits per nine and his ERA is 5.59. He had eight straight scoreless outings at one point, but he’s cooled off. To the above dexterity point, the Phillies need a lefty to get a job done against lefties. Alvarado hasn’t been that guy any more than Banks has.
5 — Jonathan Bowlan
Finally, an upward trend: Bowlan has allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk in his last 8 2/3 innings. Bowlan was the Phillies’ Matt Strahm return because he gets righties out, and that’s just what he’s done this year; they’ve hit .156/.156/.219 against Bowlan this year. Bowlan’s last three entrances have come with the score within two runs. If his trend continues, that one should, too.
4 — Chase Shugart
For some reason, Shugart recently went nine straight games, 11 days, without appearing in a game. You can excuse the two-run outing when he finally did, with the Phillies trailing the Dodgers by six. Before that, Shugart had a 1.53 ERA with four of five inherited runners stranded across 14 appearances (two of which, both wins, came on the same day). His WHIP is still well under 1.00; he’s struck out more than nine and walked under two per nine innings. Hiatus aside, Shugart might be something, especially if his 13th percentile chase rate can improve.
3 — Brad Keller
It is not always the most exciting watch, but Keller’s 85.5 mph average exit velocity is in MLB’s 94th percentile. He’s been effective against both righties (.700 OPS) and lefties (.611). He’s struck out 27.7% of batters faced this year, in the upper fifth of the league. His strikeout rate was down in the latter half of May, during which he allowed two leadoff homers in six outings. His other four outings were hitless.
2 — Orion Kerkering
Does a 100th percentile average exit velocity or a 99th percentile hard-hit rate give you confidence? Part of Kerkering’s story has always been an underwhelming strikeout clip, and he’s walking a few too many batters, but he’s getting by thanks to that soft contact. An encouraging note, considering last year’s struggles in this department: Kerkering has inherited 12 runners this season; just three have scored.
1 — Jhoan Duran
Someone else who’s run lower-than-expected strikeout rates in years past, Duran’s 13.2 K/9 this year is the highest of his career. He’s 12-for-12 on save opportunities. He’s been everything the Phillies hoped of him when they traded a hefty prospect haul for him last trade deadline, and he could be even better when the Phillies take their foot off the gas in terms of his usage. If, of course, he lets them.
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