Analysis

What can Phillies do about struggling fifth-starter spot?

Alan Rangel allowed five runs on Sunday. (Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

PHILADELPHIA — Alan Rangel was one out — one pitch — away from a clean first inning as Bo Bichette battled in the batter’s box. After throwing three straight balls to the third hitter of the game, the right-hander fired seven consecutive strikes, with Bichette fouling off the last six. On the 11th pitch, Rangel finally missed the zone once again, sending the Mets third baseman to first with a walk.

Two pitches later, Rangel threw a middle-in fastball to Francisco Lindor, who crushed it into the second deck at Citizens Bank Park for two of five runs scored off the Phillies’ fifth starter. Rangel went just four innings in a 6-1 loss in a rubber match with New York on Sunday afternoon. He allowed seven hits and three walks in 91 pitches as his season ERA rose to 5.40 in 23 1/3 innings.

“He seemed to be getting ahead of guys,” interim manager Don Mattingly said. “He really wasn’t able to, it didn’t feel like, put anybody away. The Bo at-bat in the first, he kind of fouls off a bunch of pitches. He ends up walking. Then we get to Lindor. He missed a spot on him, I think, trying to go away and pulled one in — right where he likes it.”

The Phillies (55-45) have been unable to find a reliable fifth starter. Rookie Andrew Painter, a former top prospect, began the year in the big-league rotation but was sent down to Triple-A on June 17 following a two-inning, six-run blowup. Rangel has filled the spot and initially did a better job competing, but he’s failed to make it more than four innings in his past four outings. Still, Mattingly said that Sunday was the first time he felt Rangel didn’t really give the club much of a chance. It was his second time facing the Mets, and big-league teams have “made adjustments to his style.”

“Today was just a tough one right away,” Mattingly said. “I think this was really the first one for him that feels like that — right? — where it’s out of hand quick.”

Philadelphia lost the last five games in which Painter pitched before he was demoted. It has lost all five in which Rangel has pitched since becoming the fifth starter. The Phillies have tried openers, and they’ve given both guys a chance to start as usual. Neither scenario has produced a winning formula.

That could prompt the club to try a different option, or avoid the issue altogether for a little while. With an off day coming up on Thursday after the team’s upcoming three-game series against the Dodgers, the Phillies could skip the No. 5 spot in the rotation to have Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler throw on regular rest this upcoming weekend versus the Yankees; skipping the fifth starter on Friday and pushing the spot July 28 in Miami would let the Phillies only need it one more time before the Aug. 3 trade deadline while still keeping everyone rested. However, the team has largely been hesitant to skip certain spots, instead deciding to stay in turn and prioritize rest for their other four arms.

Potential Phillies starting rotation if club decides to skip fifth starter’s next turn

  • July 20 vs. Dodgers: Cristopher Sánchez
  • July 21 vs. Dodgers: Zack Wheeler
  • July 22 vs. Dodgers: Aaron Nola
  • July 23: OFF
  • July 24 vs. Yankees: Jesús Luzardo
  • July 25 vs. Yankees: Cristopher Sánchez
  • July 26 vs. Yankees: Zack Wheeler
  • July 27 at Marlins: Aaron Nola
  • July 28 at Marlins: fifth starter/bullpen game
  • July 29 at Marlins: Jesús Luzardo
  • July 30: OFF
  • July 31 at Orioles: Cristopher Sánchez
  • Aug. 1 at Orioles: Zack Wheeler
  • Aug. 2 at Orioles: Aaron Nola
  • Aug. 3 vs. Nationals (deadline day): Jesús Luzardo

Whether the Phillies skip the spot or not, perhaps they could pitch someone other than Rangel the next time the turn comes up. The team optioned him on July 2 and appeared set for a bullpen game in his last turn before the All-Star break, but an injury to reliever Lou Trivino III allowed them to bring Rangel back up early. Sending Rangel to Triple-A on Monday could allow the Phillies to add an extra arm to their thin bullpen until they need a fifth starter. Mattingly did not commit to Rangel making his next start, while also noting that no decision had been made either way.

“It’s something to talk about,” Mattingly said. “Now’s not a great time to talk about that when you’re 10 minutes after the game. I’m sure it’s something that everybody’s looking at to try to give us the best chance to win.”

There are not great alternatives in the organization behind Rangel. Painter is the only healthy minor-league starter who is currently on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, and he has not pitched since he was lit up for seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings on July 10. Former Phillies left-hander Kolby Allard, signed to a minor-league deal to rejoin the organization last month, has been hit hard at Lehigh Valley. There are other veterans in the Triple-A rotation; minor-league journeyman Brian Keller, 32, has been the best of them with a 2.23 ERA in eight starts.

Maybe a bullpen game could be the best choice, especially if the club will indeed alter the rotation to only use the fifth spot once before the deadline. After that, the Phillies might have a new fifth starter to plug into the rotation, although they will have other needs as well. But it would be hard to imagine them being able to get through the season without some kind of addition, unless Painter can put it all together quickly. That’s probably not a safe bet based on the way he’s pitched the last two years.

Having fifth-starter problems doesn’t matter a ton in the postseason when teams typically only need four, but it can have an effect on October. Back in 2024, the Phillies did not upgrade their rotation at the trade deadline. They cycled through Taijuan Walker, Tyler Phillips and Allard down the stretch and couldn’t land on one who stuck. Their struggles when the fifth starter pitched probably cost the team a chance at the No. 1 seed in the National League playoffs. The red-hot Mets eliminated the second-seeded Phillies in the NL Division Series that year. This season’s Phillies are not yet a lock for the postseason.

No one is expecting an ace at the back of the rotation, and the Phillies are hardly the only team with poor results from their fifth starter. But it’s a clear roster hole at this point — along with an outfielder and at least one bullpen arm. While it might be impossible to fix everything at one deadline, all three would be worth addressing.

In the meantime, the Phillies will have to map out a plan to get to the deadline and go from there. If that still includes staying the course with Rangel, it would be a boost for him to get a little deeper into his outings to save the bullpen from extra stress and give the team a better opportunity to win.

“I need to try to have a little more success early on in my starts,” Rangel said through a team interpreter. “I think that’s something that I have to earn with pitching, and keep fighting. Keep fighting through every inning, and just try to fight through it until it happens.”

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