Analysis

The numbers behind the Phillies’ bizarre three-year drought without a walk-off home run

Teammates mob Kyle Schwarber at the plate after his walk-off home run. (Jake Law/Phillies Nation)

Kyle Schwarber’s big swing in the ninth inning on Sunday extended a pair of notable Phillies streaks and ended a longstanding drought. His 459-foot walk-off home run with two outs in the ninth inning stretched the Phillies’ longest winning streak of the year to nine. They have also swept three-consecutive series for the first time since September 2010.

For the Phillies, it was the team’s first walk-off home run since June 9, 2023, when Schwarber, of course, homered against the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the game in the ninth inning.

Yes, it’s been three years, two months and 14 days since the last Phillies walk-off home run.

Entering Sunday, every other team in baseball had hit at least two walk-off home runs since the Phillies’ last walk-off home run. Four teams — the San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants — all had hit at least 10 walk-off home runs during the Phillies’ long stretch without one.

The league as a whole combined for 179 walk-off home runs in between the last two Phillies walk-off home runs.

Believe it or not, that is not the longest walk-off home run drought in franchise history. The Phillies went five years without a walk-off home run from June 1940 to July 1945.

Most walk-off home runs in MLB from June 10, 2023 to Aug. 22, 2026

  1. San Francisco Giants — 11
  2. Baltimore Orioles — 10
  3. New York Mets — 10
  4. San Diego Padres — 10
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks — 8
  6. Houston Astros — 8
  7. Los Angeles Dodgers — 8
  8. St. Louis Cardinals — 8
  9. Minnesota Twins — 7
  10. Athletics — 7
  11. Chicago Cubs — 6
  12. Chicago White Sox — 6
  13. Los Angeles Angels — 6
  14. Miami Marlins — 6
  15. Milwaukee Brewers — 6
  16. Tampa Bay Rays — 6
  17. Texas Rangers — 6
  18. Atlanta Braves — 5
  19. Boston Red Sox — 5
  20. Cleveland Guardians — 5
  21. Colorado Rockies — 5
  22. Detroit Tigers — 5
  23. Pittsburgh Pirates –5
  24. Seattle Mariners — 5
  25. Cincinnati Reds — 4
  26. Toronto Blue Jays — 4
  27. Kansas City Royals — 3
  28. New York Yankees — 2
  29. Washington Nationals — 2

It’s one of the stranger statistical anomalies in Phillies history. Since that last walk-off home run, the Phillies had 26 walk-offs, including a Nick Castellanos walk-off single in Game 2 of the 2024 NLDS. None of those 26 walk-offs were homers. Last year, the Phillies had five walk-offs, with one coming on a wild pitch and another on a catcher’s interference. But no home runs.

It turns out the clutch home runs all came on the road. Or in the eighth inning at home. During the walk-off home run drought, the Phillies had eight go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning on the road.

  • Cristian Pache on July 7, 2023 at Miami
  • Nick Castellanos on Aug. 1, 2023 at Miami
  • Johan Rojas on April 30, 2024 at Los Angeles Angels
  • Kyle Schwarber on Sept. 3, 2024 at Toronto
  • Trea Turner on April 9, 2025 at Braves
  • Rafael Marchan on Sept. 16, 2025 at Dodgers
  • Bryson Stott on June 23, 2026 at Washington
  • Derek Hill on June 24, 2026 at Washington

They also had five go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning at home:

  • Bryce Harper on Aug. 30, 2023 vs. Angels
  • Max Kepler on June 14, 2025 vs. Blue Jays
  • Bryson Stott on July 6, 2025 vs. Reds
  • J.T. Realmuto on Aug. 19, 2025 vs. Mariners
  • Bryson Stott on May 18, 2026 vs. Reds

It’s not as if the clutch hit — or home run — has eluded the Phillies. It has just come in different forms over the last few years. “Baseball” is the only way to describe why these things happen. It wouldn’t be too surprising with the way the Phillies are playing right now if the numbers shift in their favor and they finish the year with three more walk-off home runs.

The Phillies have been a frustrating watch at times this year but never boring. They’ve also delivered some memorable moments. Per OptaSTATS, the Phillies have won five games — April 1, April 30, June 23, June 24 and Aug. 23 — in 2026 while trailing with two outs and two strikes in the ninth inning. It’s the most wins any MLB team has had in that situation since pitch tracking began in 1988.

Schwarber’s walk-off home run was also the first time the Phillies won a game while trailing by four runs in the ninth inning since Bryce Harper’s walk-off grand slam against the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 15, 2019.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Barbara Jean

    August 24, 2026 at 5:21 pm

    This past Sunday made up for all those days I lamented over this team, especially over a day game on a Sunday afternoon. No matter what happens going forward, I will always remember
    what happened in yesterday’s ninth inning.

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