As the Phillies continue to fight for a playoff spot, it is reasonable to start thinking about how they might look if they get in.
The team’s strength would be its starting pitching, even with Jesús Luzardo landing on the injured list. The team’s biggest weakness would be its bullpen. The bridge between the starter and Jhoan Duran in a postseason game is projected to be shaky at best.
But there is another potential hole if current trends hold — the Phillies’ diminished ability to hit the long ball.
Entering August, the Phillies ranked eighth in Major League Baseball with 140 home runs. They rank 26th with 37 home runs since the start of last month.
Kyle Schwarber’s cool-off has been part of the lower home-run total. His home-run rate entering August was 8.5 percent. Since then, it’s 7.6 percent. Bryce Harper’s home-run rate has also dipped, from 5.7 percent before August to 3.3 percent since the start of it.
The supporting cast isn’t homering, either. Brandon Marsh has become a black hole in the batter’s box. He had 16 home runs before the start of last month. He has one since. Marsh’s struggles go back further, though. He’s slugging .249 since July 1. Trea Turner is homering less, too. Both were tied for third in home runs on the team entering August.
Schwarber and Harper had combined for 55 home runs at the end of July. That was 39 percent of the Phillies’ homers. They have 18 since. Or 48.6 percent of the club’s home runs. The home-run depth is not there.
The Phillies had one of the best offenses in baseball in August without hitting many home runs. September has been different. They’ve started chasing again and aren’t hitting home runs, something that could be a huge issue in the postseason.
Since 2022, there have been 44 postseason series. In 40 of those series, one team hit more home runs than the other. The win-loss record of teams that out-homered their opponents in those 40 series is 31-9, good for a .775 winning percentage.
In looking at potential Wild Card Series matchups for the Phillies, the Cubs are second in the majors with 208 home runs this season. They’ve hit 74 since Aug. 1, the most in the majors.
As for the Braves, their home-run capability has simmered down. They were fourth in the majors with 145 home runs entering August. They’ve hit 47 since, 14th in baseball.
Over the last two series between the Phillies and Braves – a combined seven games in which the Braves won four – Atlanta hit nine home runs while the Phillies hit eight.
As a team, the Phillies have allowed the 11th-most home runs in MLB this season (180). And even though most of the arms they’d lean on in the postseason aren’t known for giving up the long ball, that is still something to think about on top of their lack of home-run power over the last six-plus weeks.
It’s not always best to assume trends over the last few weeks of the regular season will continue in the playoffs. And the Phillies do still have to get there. But their lack of home-run power since the start of August is something to monitor. It could sway their potential postseason success. Home runs are so important when it comes to winning in the playoffs.
Ted T
September 16, 2026 at 8:59 pm
As noted the Phillies had their least productive home run month of the season in August when they had their best monthly record at 21-7. What they did have in August was the most walks, the most hits and the most doubles of any month. Bottom line: Get on base and put the ball in play. Swinging for the fence has hardly been the magic formula.