2009 Projection: Cole Hamels – Phillies Nation
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2009 Projection: Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels, SP (LHP)
Age: 25

2008: 227.1 IP / 14-10 / 3.09 ERA / 53 BB / 196 K / 2 CG / 1.08 WHIP

Summary: Forget the wins and losses: 2008 was a breakthrough season for Hamels. His ERA fell close to below 3.00 while his BB/9 rate continued to fall close to below 2.00. Almost every start was a quality start, as he seemed to dominate most teams with his fastbal-changeup combination. The games he didn’t dominate were true ace performances — sticking through with marginal stuff while only giving up 2-3 runs. He carried that style to the postseason, ripping off a slew of solid starts that earned him two postseason MVP trophies.

Career Level: Ascent (Year 3)

Green Flags: The numbers continued to improve in 2008. That alone is a big green flag. … When balls were put in play, opponents were only hitting .270 — best of his major league career. … Hamels remained a ground-ball pitcher, throwing with a 1.02 GB/FB ratio. … Home run rates also dropped in 2008. … The curveball is slowly becoming an out pitch.

Red Flags: Hamels’ K/9 rates were down, and have decreased each season (down to 7.76). … Hamels threw more than 300 innings, combining the season with postseason and spring training 2008. … Hamels suffered some elbow pain during spring training 2009. … Hitters were striking line drives off Hamels at a higher rate than ever in 2008.

Prognostication: If Hamels remains healthy — a concern, for sure — he can duplicate his 2008 success and maybe improve upon it. Hitters are slowly starting to read him better, but if the curve becomes a prominent pitch, it’ll probably give Hamels another three seasons of baffling success. He’ll likely have another great season, but health and strikeout rates might caution us a bit.

2009 Projection: 203.2 IP / 15-6 / 3.31 ERA / 50 BB / 182 K / 3 CG / 1.10 WHIP

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0 Comments

  1. Geoff

    April 2, 2009 at 3:43 pm

    Hell get better, but like I said a while ago he needs to use his curve more than he does. He should develop a slider and/or a cutter at somepoint of his career too, probably before the 2010 season.

  2. TJ

    April 2, 2009 at 3:51 pm

    I think he gets more than 15. He won 14 last year with just about zero run support. I think he lost or had a ND in 7 games that were decided by 2 runs or less. Dont quote me on that but just to get a general idea.

  3. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    I’m guessing I’ll get b!tched at for this too… but I highly doubt that Hamels throws 200+ innings this year..

  4. Mark

    April 2, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    Man they should of gotten rid of Moyer. 9 runs today. Pathetic. He will get killed this year. Should of signed Lowe. Put happ in the rotation. Moyer makes me buy lots of Tums. He got lucky last year. His loses were bad…

  5. Albert

    April 2, 2009 at 4:49 pm

    Mark, what makes you think Moyer won’t succeed this year? Its not like he lost “stuff” from last year to this, and as far as the fan base knows he isn’t hurt. I don’t see Moyer winning 16 games again, but I can see 12-8 with a low 4 ERA which is fine for a back end of the rotation guy. Be more worried about Hamels’s health or Myers psyche.

  6. Brian Michael

    April 2, 2009 at 4:50 pm

    Projection: Cy Young

  7. TJ

    April 2, 2009 at 4:55 pm

    Don M.,

    I can agree with that assessment but I surely hope he would be able to get through this season healthy. Whether or not Charlie makes that decision to have him go that many this year is one that will need to be made in stride. I dont like how prone he is to injury and with him being so young I dont think I would put him through another 200+ inning year.

  8. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    How come everyone is worried about Werth, but thinking Hamels will have a career year? He finally stayed healthy for the first time last season, pitched WAY more innings then he ever has before, and still hasn’t sniffed his normal velocity yet and the season starts on Sunday..

    He’ll be good when he pitches, but I think he’ll skip starts periodically this year, and I think he’ll be unhittable at times, with a few “dead arm” games at times too.. 15 Wins with a 3.50 ERA or better would be outstanding following last year!

  9. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 4:57 pm

    Damn TJ… I must have been reading your mind there..

  10. Manny

    April 2, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    I’ll agree with that Don: I’m less worried about Werth, more worried about Hamels. I think the key for Hamels will be to allow HIM to keep his strict schedule, get a little routine going on… I think he knows how far he should go in a game.

    But if we want to make it to the playoffs again, I think that our No.1 starter must get at least 15 wins this time…

  11. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 5:08 pm

    I think Blanton has a huge year this year.. I think I said before 16 wins… I might bump that to 18-20 … with a 3.75 ERA… and well over 200 innings.. he’s a beast.

  12. Brett

    April 2, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    and don’t forget the 13 HRs

  13. Brooks

    April 3, 2009 at 7:45 am

    Brian pegged it.
    If Cole had the run support last year (the “ifs” are getting to me here) there would have been our 20 game winner. This year the offense is better or should be better. If Cole stays healthy, no reason not to believe he will get a new award to place on his mantle.

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