2009 Projection: Kyle Kendrick

Kyle Kendrick, SP (RHP)
Age: 24 (25, Aug. 26)

2008: 155.2 IP / 11-9 / 5.49 ERA / 57 BB / 68 K / 0 CG / 1.61 WHIP

Summary: Kyle Kendrick had a solid first half, in that he kept the Phils offense in games as he churned out quality or close-to-quality starts. Fourteen of his first 23 starts went six innings or beyond; once he got to start 24, however, Kendrick fell hard. He would only escape the fifth inning twice in his final seven starts, raising his ERA from 4.37 to 5.49. Usually Kendrick was at his worst when one hitter got on base. He’d pace himself, make poor decisions, leave pitches over and get them hit hard. Lefties hit him very hard (.334/.404/.541).

Career Level: Ascent (Year 1)

Green Flags: Kendrick did hold himself together for a long time in 2008, much like all of 2007. So there’s reason to think he can regain that composure. … His ground-to-fly-ball rate improved from 1.48 in 2007 to 1.54 in 2008.

Red Flags: But Kendrick’s liner rates got worse, from 21.1 percent to 27 percent. … Kendrick’s strikeout rates are very poor (3.93 per nine), while his walk rates got much worse in ’08 (3.30 per nine in 2008, after 1.86 per nine in 2007). … His mindset has been to blame for some of his problems, which doesn’t bode well for his future.

Prognostication: Kendrick has fallen to the minor leagues, but might resurface with the Phillies for at least a start or two. If he gets that chance, it’s likely he won’t bomb, but he also won’t do enough to salvage his professional standing. He gets hit far too much, walks far too many hitters and has even more trouble when men get on base. Luck is too much to ask.

2009 Projection: 34.2 IP / 1-2 / 5.52 ERA / 15 BB / 9 K / 0 CG / 1.56 WHIP

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  1. John Fire

    April 3, 2009 at 4:43 pm

    With all of these crappy statistics you’re predicting it doesn’t sound like you’re hopeful of a repeat…

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