According to Fangraphs’ 2020 projections, the Phillies have the sixth-lowest odds to make the playoffs this season. At 18.7 percent, they are well behind three other competitors in the NL East: the Atlanta Braves (56.4 percent), New York Mets (58.4 percent) and Washington Nationals (63.9 percent).
Fangraphs also projects the Phillies will win 79.6 games, good for a second-consecutive fourth-place finish in the division. It is not as conservative as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, which has the Phillies winning 71 games with an 8.9 percent chance to make the postseason.
The five NL teams behind the Phillies in playoff odds are the Arizona Diamondbacks (16.7 percent), Colorado Rockies (4.4 percent), Pittsburgh Pirates (1.4 percent), San Francisco Giants (0.7 percent) and Miami Marlins (0.3 percent). The three NL teams with the highest odds to win their own division are the Nationals (35.6 percent), Cubs (39.4 percent) and Dodgers (90.8 percent). Los Angeles winning the NL West is as certain as a bet as you can make, but as far as Washington and Chicago go, it’ll be surprising to see both teams on top of their division come October.
The trend of projection systems undervaluing the Phillies should come to no surprise to many. While the lineup has significantly improved, there are many questions surrounding the talent level of both the back end of the rotation and bullpen. If the Phillies beat out these projections and make the postseason for the first time since 2011, it’ll be interesting to see if these pessimistic projects will be used as a rallying cry.
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