At The Half: Looking Good … For Now

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, July 14, 2008 03:27 PM

Now that the All-Star break is here, the Phillies find themselves in first place in the National League East, a tight 0.5 games up on the Mets (tied in the loss column), who have rolled off nine straight wins.

I feel completely fine.

Sure the Phils could have a much larger lead in the East, but a lead is a lead, and the Phils have rarely held first place in anything for this long (they’ve been in first since June 1). They’re doing it despite a full pitching staff and a streaky offense.

Of course, the rest of the division is mediocre. The Mets, while playing well lately, aren’t necessarily a dominant team. Their offense is as streaky as the Phils’, while their bullpen is in much worse shape. The Marlins are inexperienced and aren’t particularly strong with pitching. The Braves are oft-injured and each part of that team features many holes. It remains that the Phils are the most complete team in the division.

This doesn’t mean the Phils are made in the shade. Uh uh. In fact, the Phils must improve. It’s no guarantee this lead will remain, and it’s very evident the Phils need to match up better with the class teams of Major League Baseball.

The Phils need another starting pitcher capable of going seven-to-eight innings most times. If they can’t get that, they need a full five pitchers capable of going six and giving up two-to-three runs. I don’t know if AJ Burnett or Erik Bedard would cut it. I don’t think Carlos Carrasco is really the answer. The real answer is Brett Myers; his demise may have completely ruined the team’s World Series hopes.

Since the idea of a solid No. 2 might be out the window, the Phils could be safe if they find two pieces that fit the Kyle Kendrick/Jamie Moyer mold. Is it Carrasco and Myers? Myers and Happ? Happ and Maddux? Byrd and Maddux? Whatever it is, it has to be found, and soon.

In order to beat teams with two great pitchers (read Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks), the Phils need to be more patient and situational at the dish. This falls mostly on Jimmy Rollins. The Phils offense is best when there’s line-drive hitting balancing out the big boppers. Shane Victorino has done his best Jimmy-lite impression this season, but a hole still remains. Either Rollins plays better and consistently, or the necessity for one or two line-drive bats will be high.

And the other main issue is bullpen insurance. Tom Gordon is on the DL and can’t be relied upon. JC Romero isn’t a complete answer for the back end. Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin look great, but can’t be bounced around. Even Brad Lidge needs to be limited. Clearly the Phils need another lefty reliever and one more solid Durbin-esque piece. The former may have to be Brian Fuentes; the latter could be almost anything, from a resurrected Brett Myers to a bargain-bin option.

I’ll outline all these needs in detail throughout the week.

So how many pieces are the Phillies from being a top club? Probably three. One real solid starter; one good bat; one insurance reliever. The rest could fall into place from there. But it’s clear to see the Phils do need some pieces.

In the first half the Phils assembled showed they were the best team in a slightly above-average NL East. Now they’ll have to adjust to compete with the absolute best and reach World Series contention status.

Right now I feel completely fine. But if it’s this team three months from now, I’ll be pretty sick to my stomach.

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66 Responses to “At The Half: Looking Good … For Now”

  1. John Says:

    I think it’s a stretch to call the Phillies “the most complete team in the division”. I say this mostly because of the Phillies’ starting pitching. You’re not going anywhere with Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Bret Myers, and Adam Eaton, who combine for a whopping ERA of 4.99. Your offense is very good, and also very clutch. But of course, even the Nationals would be a good offensive team if they played in that joke of a ballpark you call Citizen’s Bank, where routine flyballs turn into homeruns.

  2. Pat Says:

    I don’t know if I feel “completely fine.” We have 3/5 starters for the second half…. I won’t feel that better until the Myers/Eaton pitching situation is resolved. I don’t want to trade our CC or our future catcher because they will be part of our roster in 2 years. To me, everyone else in the minors is fair game.

    Other than salary concerns, is A.J. Burnett really worse than Adam Eaton? At least I have seen A.J. “on” in 1/2 his starts, and he wouldn’t have to face tougher American League hitters. I’m sure he would waive his no trade clause to come to a first place team. I wouldn’t pencil it as a loss everytime he takes the mound… With Eaton, I’m praying somehow he keeps us in the game to the 5th inning where our bullpen can take over.

    I’ll even take my chances with Myers and Happ. But I won’t feel better until we eliminate Eaton from our rotation.

  3. Chase Says:

    We might not need another starter. I would’ve liked the Phillies to go get Rich Harden, this is the second half rotation
    1 Cole Hamels
    2 Brett Myers (hopefully he can straighten things out in the minors)
    3 Jamie Moyer (although he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he still pitches well.
    4 Kyle Kendrick (still a solid pitcher, can go 6,7 innings
    5 J.A Happ (In two starts he look good, probably not enough to judge a player but is definitely better than Eaton)
    I say bring up Golson and send down So

  4. Phil Says:

    Chase, you can’t bring Golson up and sit So. The guy has a lot to work oin in the minors. If he’s riding the bench in the majors then he’ll be useless in the future. Let the guy develop his game better.

  5. Chase Says:

    Uh oh. look at this article.
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080714_Morning_Report__Pat_the_Bats_price_tag_goes_up.html
    not good

  6. Phil Says:

    They’re going to use Burrell’s contract to bring in a big name pitcher.

  7. Mark Says:

    Dont know how you feel good about where the phillies stand… They should have put this division to bed a long time ago… Instead, just like the Mets did last year they let teams hang around and now they have the pressure and stress of knowning that they allowed the Mets and Marlins back into the race. The Mets pitching right now is amazing I think it will cool down but it gives the phillies a reason to be very nervous. Outside of Hamels i dont know of one pitcher that could compete in the NY rotation. Its going to be a long tough second half and I truly believe the winner of the division is going to be the team that pitches better down the stretch and the phillies rotation is god awful.

  8. Don M Says:

    So Kendrick and Moyer aren’t good enough to pitch for the Mets ??? …. you suck at life..

    The Mets are winning because they have NO PRESSURE on them right now at all.. they have basically the same CHOKE team as last year, Billy Wagner is the best closer in the game (the best at blowing saves I mean).. They don’t scare me one bit because when the games matter, they will collapse again

  9. MS Says:

    it will be sad to see Pat go. and an outfield of Werth, Victorino, Jenkins is pretty bad. Golson is no where near ready, and won’t be next year.

  10. Steve Says:

    I agree there Don, the Mets have nothing to lose at this point with a new manager, of course they’re going to do well, lets see how they do now that they’re in contention again. I agree that things could be better here in Philly, but if you told me at the beginning of the year that we’d be in first place at the All-Star break I’d be pretty damn happy with that. Let’s hope that we get us some pitching help to take us through the second half, but for now let’s all step back, breathe, and enjoy at least 3 more days in first place.

  11. Mark Says:

    Honesty as of right now the Mets Rotation is rock solid with the exception of Pedro… Perez and Pelfrey have been unhittable, Santana is a second half pitcher and Maine is consistent… Kendrick’s record is only good because of his run support… I think Moyer is solid.

    Your right about the Choke last year and until they win the big game down the stretch they will have to put up with that. I just think that if the phillies had put up a double digit lead in the division like they were capable of doing earlier in the season it would be a much different story then a .5 game lead and tied in the loss column at the break.

  12. MS Says:

    lets also remember who the muts have been beating. a struggling phils team and 2 teams from the west. give them credit for winning games they should win, but hardly call them a dominant team after these 3 series.

    for those people who say the phils should have taken a much bigger lead in the division by now- i think it is better to look at the last month and see how we have maintained first place. if we play like this for July and August we won’t be thinking about October, but if we improve i’ll bet that we have a bigger lead.

    bring in another pitcher and look for the offense to click. we’ll be there fighting in the end.

  13. Mark Says:

    Also Don… I dont come on to a philly website to fight and get all fired up… I like to gauge what phillie fans are feeling and thinking… and I am honest… I think mets and philly fans should be able to discuss baseball without throwing punches as we have seen in the upper decks the last few meetings… I am a baseball fan and I enjoy the rivalry and competition…

  14. Mark Says:

    Ms its not the teams that they are beating that is impressive… You are right the Giants and Rockies are not the Cubs and Red Sox but it is impressive in the way that they are doing it… They are not outslugging teams, they are doing it with dominate pitching and that is what wins late in the year as you saw in the playoffs last year… I know i am being repetative but good pitching always beats good hitting and I think its essential for the Phillies to get another arm in order to really feel good about where they are at.

  15. Mark Says:

    How about a midseason review of the Philliesnation Fantasy Leagues?

  16. Phil Says:

    Mark, you’re obviously trolling. You’re saying our rotation is god awful. It’s not god awful. It’s decent. If you take Eaton out it’s actually pretty respectable.

  17. Joshua Says:

    I agree with Mark, The mets rotation is simply UNHITTABLE right now! I would take the mets rotation over the phillies in a heartbeat.

    also, don’t forget that this CHOKE team was 1 out away from the world series, so don’t make it sound like they buckle under pressure…they were able to win the division, sweep the NLDS, and force a game 7 in the NLCS…they know how to win. So don’t make it sound like, they’re bound to buckle under pressure, cause they ALWAYS do, when tehy DONT ALWAYS do.

  18. Phil Says:

    Do you Mets trolls have anything better to do?

  19. Gavin Says:

    I think it is prudent to give the Mets credit at thsi point. They beat us 3 in a row and then their pitching absolutley dominated the Giants and Rox. Give credit where credit is due. The Phils need to pick it up. This is going to be a race no matter who the Phils pick up or dont pick up.

    The Mets have a good team guys, they just are a bunch of frontrunning vaginas and when things go bad they whine and moan. Lets just hope they hit a tough stretch again. If they dont, then we need to win 40 out of 66 to win this thing.

  20. Gavin Says:

    BTW, is this the longest 4 days of the year or what?

  21. Greg V. Says:

    I definately would love to see Maddux in a Phillies uniform. I think we’d give him the proper run support that San Diego won’t give him.

  22. Gavin Says:

    Maddux would get whiplash in CBP. So would Byrd and Wolf. We need a K guy if we need anybody.

    It really is possible that Myers and Happ could be the answer. Eaton is the only guy…….. I just cringe when I think about him.

  23. Runshouse Says:

    Maddux never pitches past 6 and pulls himself out no matter what his pith count is… he would add some bullpen strain.

  24. Jeff Says:

    I’m a Phils fan but the Mets starting pitching is head and shoulders above the Phils’ starting pitching. King Cole is the ONLY pitcher in the rotation you feel you feel safe will bring you a win. Moyer and Kendrick, I love ‘em but they’re both decent as end of the rotation guys at their respective points in their careers. Santana, Maine and Pelfry are showing that they can have their dominate days (is any of this news though? Maine and Perez, especially Perez, have been hot and cold in their scouting reports) when they’re on. Perez on his most wild day is still better than Myers. Pedro, well lets just say that I would love a 3 time Cy Young winner as my 5th guy.

    Our bullpen is much better than the Mets but if you’ve got Adam Eaton given you an 8 run deficit in the 3rd inning, what does that matter?

    That said, the Mets have shown you that they’re streaky so all these proud Mets fans beating their chest, you know that you’re not as good as you’ve been these last few weeks. You know that Ollie, Maine and Pelfry won’t be as unhittable when they’re not facing bottom lurking teams. Enjoy it while you can.

  25. Phil Says:

    Our offense is better than the Mets our rotation isn’t nearly as bad as anyone is making it out to be, and our bullpen is light years ahead of the Mets.

  26. Gavin Says:

    Our heart is bigger than the Mets……..excluding Eaton.

  27. Greg V. Says:

    Maddux has a decent ERA and hardly has any walks. His amount of K’s is weak but I think our defense can back him up well. I think it would be a good move, but I also have to admit it is not one that I am counting on either.

  28. Mike T. Says:

    It appears that Joe Blanton is officially on the market. The A’s got what they wanted for Harden, which may make it possible for the Phillies to acquire Blanton without dealing Carrasco or Marson.

    Blanton is probably a number 4, 3 at best. He’s definitely a “B starter”, and without much room to work on the market, this looks like a fit for the Phils.

    Here are his stats so far:
    5-12, 4.96 ERA, 62 K’S and 35 BB’S in 127.0 IP

    Who does that remind you of last year? Kyle Lohse? That’s right.

    Kyle Lohse, 2007 Reds stats:
    6-12, 4.58 ERA, 80 K’S and 33 BB’S in 131.7 IP

    If I’m going to make a guess at what the Phillies are going to do, it’s going to have to be Joe Blanton. Another B starter who, at best, will get you a NLDS.

  29. PhilliesDiary Says:

    I agree we only have 3/5 starters right now and we really only need 3 if we make the playoffs. So we just need 2 starters that don’t suck so bad like Eaton. Like a pitcher that could actually win a game here or there.

  30. Geoff Says:

    Im not excited at all about maddux. Hes a different version of moyer and they cant afford another guy like that because the bullpen is alreayd tired

  31. Geoff Says:

    I agree about Blanton, not that they should do it but it looks like it will fit and they wont have to give up too much for him.

    If maddux was their big move, they would fail to make the playoffs.

  32. Mike T. Says:

    Yeah Geoff, like we said, we need another solid 1 or 2 guy — Blanton’s not it, not even close. He’s a B starter, he won’t get us shit.

  33. RiVLez Says:

    Kendrick sucks. He gets 7.6 Runs per game. The most in baseball. Shit even Steve Trachsel won 15 games when he had support of 6 runs per game. Kendrick is not great. There is no one really outside of Hamels that you would say is good. Moyer is mediocre and so is Kendrick but Eaton is just plain terrible and needs to be GONE.

  34. Mike T. Says:

    Yo Rivlez, either bring something new to the table, or shut up.

  35. Geoff Says:

    WEll hell help but he wont save us. Agreed there.

    Kendrick actually doesnt suck. He is a 5th starter, and hes fine in that role. He will develop into a 3rd starter but hes not there yet. Get angry at eaton if anyone.

  36. RiVLez Says:

    Kyle Kendrick
    W-L 8-3 ERA 4.47 K 47 Walks 32 WHIP 1.46

    All I have to say since when is a 4.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.46 good? That is just terrible. I’m a Met’s fan but I don’t hate the Phillies. I love baseball. I honestly believe that the Phils are 2-3 people away from being GREAT. 1 Great start to go alongside Cole Hamels(Terrible he is not in the All-Star Game and a shithead like Wagner is) and another good bat in that can produce 25 HR 100 RBI and have a good OBP and bat second. Victorino is good but needs to pick his OBP up to be more effective at the top of the order. Burrell is having a REALLY good year and so is Utley but not as of late. Howard has basically carried the Phils the last week by himself. Who knows what will happen in the end but I think it’ll be interesting to say the least.

  37. Anth Says:

    “Boo? Fuck you!”

    Chase Utley, you ARE the man!

  38. Greg V. Says:

    They should have had Brett Myers pitch to Utley!

  39. christopher Says:

    glad that the team closed the first half with two nice series wins. they’ve been a fun team to watch all year and it’s good to see them in first place. hopefully they can acquire a good starting pitcher and someone to help the bullpen without giving up a top prospect or an everyday player other than jenkins, or if absolutely need be werth. lookin forward to the second half big time!

  40. Geoff Says:

    You can tell Utley wants no part of the HR Derby

  41. Geoff Says:

    I wouldnt watch it except that Yankee Stadium looks awesome on HDTV

  42. Geoff Says:

    aw man, did you hear roy halladay rip the blue jays organization? saying hes sick of being on a mediocre team.

    he might be trying to talk his way out of here really fast.

  43. Lewisauce Says:

    Hamels
    Myers
    Blanton
    Kendrick
    Moyer

    I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t make my Johnson hard. Even if you replace Myers with Happ, I’m still flaccid. But Mike T., you might be right. The A-list pitchers available might be all gone, leaving us with B-listers.

    I’m beginning to wonder if we don’t simply replace Eaton with Happ now, throw in the towel for the playoffs (i.e. resign ourselves to an early exit), and go after someone huge (Sheets, CC, etc.) in the off-season and try to reload for next year, when it could be Hamels, Free Agent, Carrasco, Kendrick, TBA (Moyer/Myers/Happ).

  44. Lewisauce Says:

    And for the record, I’m not nearly as confident about the second half as Tim. The Mets are scary, for all the reasons people have already enumerated.

    Geoff, Roy Halliday in a Phillies uniform would change everything. It ain’t happening, but still, one can dream …

  45. Geoff Says:

    If theyre going to be sellers, heres what id do.

    burrell to the angels for nick adenhart and an outfielder prospect

    adam eaton gone DFA paid to get out

    jenkins same as eaton

    taguchi cut

    bruntlett DFA

    ruiz traded or DFA

    moyer retired at end of year

    Myers traded for mlb ready pithcing prospect, mlb ready infield prospect

    seanez cut

    gorden retired

    condrey sent down

    fill the rest of the space with ALL prospects and see what they can do in the second half. then go sign big free agents to plug the holes. sheets, maybe an outfielder.

    thats what id sorta do IF we decide to be sellers. but they dont do that, i guarantee it

  46. Geoff Says:

    theres so much like 30 or 40 somethings on this team that are just old junk that they need to clear off the roster and before everyone jumps all over me here im only speculating what id to if i was going to blow part of it up and be sellers.

  47. Geoff Says:

    josh hamilton is just raking it

  48. Geoff Says:

    but at this point: ill bet if they dont get burnett this week then theyll end up with blanton because bedard will cost too much. i also dont want gillick making a trade with seattle because he is going to buy them next year and be club president. thats beyond conflict of interest.

  49. RiVLez Says:

    HOLY SHIT did Josh Hamilton go crazy!

  50. Gavin Says:

    The difference b/n Blanton’s 2-8 and Lohshe’s 2-7 is that The Reds sucked and the A’s don’t. Happ is a better option than Blanton.

  51. Greg V. Says:

    That was quite a show Hamilton put on!

  52. sean Says:

    is any one else noticing the comments made by the announcers such as “there are only white guys and no black or hispanics” Y RACE HAS TO HAVE TO DO WITH EVERYTHINNG I DONT KNOW. y does race matter? so wut if they r white???

  53. RiVLez Says:

    Burnett is oft injured. I would rather see Blanton.

  54. NJ Says:

    It’s not all doom and gloom, the players themselves will know they need to play better as a team if their going to make to post-season. It was put well earlier when it was said the Mets are playing under no pressure, their form will not last and status quo will return there. The only quesion here is how good can the Phillies be and will we have enough fight in us to have things in our control hitting those last couple of weeks of the season.

    The Fuentes deals looking dead as their demands are laughable, wonder whether we’d touch Arthur Rhodes again who seems to be drawing interest. Interestingly it looks like Josh Outman was made a full time reliever which could be lightning in a bottle.

    Is it just me or is everyone getting tired of speculating about which starter Gillick will acquire? Just want to know now instead of this on-going rumor carousel around players unlikely to fit that 2 spot in the rotation, would be different if we were looking at a bonifide soft ace (outside of Bedard and his problems) to compliment Cole but at this point it’s just hoping we get someone who isn’t going to get lit-up and hoping we don’t get fleeced in the deal.

  55. Phil Says:

    Geoff, can you show me where you read that Roy Halladay wants out of Toronto? I heard he liked it there and wants to stay and help them win. Can you please find me where he said that. If that’s true Gillick better give up the farm for him. He is the most dominant pitcher of the 21st century thus far. He would also become our ace. Hamels would be our #2. Wow, Halladay/Hamels best 1-2 punch in baseball. That would make Webb/Haren look like trash(not saying they are trash because that is the best 1-2 punch right now.) Then maybe in the off season they can Sheets and have a god-like rotation. Think of it now, Halladay/Hamels/Sheets/Myers(fixed)/Carrasco/Happ/Kendrick That would never happen, but one can dream, can’t he?

  56. Geoff Says:

    go to sportsnet.ca, go to the mlb section, theres a story where halladay bitches about being stuck on a mediocre team.

    still, theres like almost no mention in the article that hes going anywhere. it just says hes not happy there. maybe he can talk his way out but hed have to talk fast.

  57. Phil Says:

    I would seriously consider castration of my left nut as part of the trade. jk

  58. Bruce Says:

    I’m wondering if there were a problem with this website last night after 11:00 PM? I couldn’t make a connection to it and may have been “down” due to error on site.

    BTW, Geoff, I see you’re at it again in your desire to “blow up” the 1st place Phillies. (chuckle)

  59. Phil Says:

    Yeah Bruce, I couldn’t either. I wanted to comment on Hamilton’s god like performance.

  60. Geoff Says:

    Actually no Bruce that was a hypthetical scenario. If we were to be sellers at the deadline, that is what i would do. but OBVIOUSLY, were not going to do that and we shouldnt.

  61. 9 in a row Says:

    LETS GO METS!

  62. Bruce Says:

    Geoff~ I went to sportsnet.ca site and read the article on Roy Halladay. If you read carefully, Halladay expressed disappointment in the team’s performance so far this year but didn’t say he wouldn’t honor his contract that expires after 2010 ($15.75 million for the last year). He also stated his loyalty to the GM, J.P. Ricciardi whom he “loves”. He simply states he tired of unfulfilled expectations (”groundhog day”) and sees a need for the GM to add the missing pieces to achieve the ultimate goal of a world series championship. Halladay sees a 3 yr window (coinsiding with his contract) to achieve that goal.

    I quote Halladay:

    “I’ve got two years to decide (about his future). That’s still a ways off for me, but I definitely want to keep moving in the right direction and I hope we do in these next two years. I’d like to get something accomplished and then after that, readjust and see where we’re at.”

    So I interpret this as Halladay wants to stay for the remainder of his contract. Of course, one can say.. never say never. Circumstances and predilections of a GM can change.

  63. justin Says:

    “Since May 31st, the third-year pitcher has pitched to a 2.26 ERA in nine starts, including wins in his last six starts.”

    im starting to worry about this guy pelfrey in there rotation. i didnt even realize how good his numbers have been. and the guy is only 24. he was supposed to be dominating, do you think hes coming around? he has played alot of decent teams in that stretch also…

  64. 9 in a row Says:

    Utley can’t even say “Fuck you” without sounding like a fag. A team of losers and you all know it. Lets go Mets! Tell Rollins to at least bat his weight!

  65. metsos Says:

    If you put the Phills pitchers on the mets team hamels is the only one that even gets to start. who you going to pitch pelfry or eaton. No pitchers want to pitch in your tiny park so you will never have a big name pitcher sign there.You only won the east because of the worse collapse in history since the 64 phils. It was a fluke. IS that what you are banking on another worse collapse in history. not going to happen in our life time most likely.
    How can you feel fine about a .5 run lead you saw a better team (on paper) lose a huge lead to the mediocre baseball the phillies played last year.

  66. metsos Says:

    Oh yea , GO BIG PELF.

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2009 salaries:

Charlie Manuel - $3 million
Ryan Howard - $19 million
Chase Utley - $15 million
Roy Halladay - $15.75 million (Toronto pays $6 million)
Brad Lidge - $11.5 million
Raul Ibanez - $11.5 million
Jimmy Rollins - $7.5 million
Jayson Werth - $7 million
Cole Hamels - $6.65 million
Jamie Moyer - $6.5 million
Placido Polanco - $5.25 million
Joe Blanton - $5.475 million
Ryan Madson - $4.5 million
J.C. Romero - $4 million
Shane Victorino - $3.125 million
Chad Durbin - $1.635 million
Greg Dobbs - $1.35 million
Ross Gload - $1 million
Brian Schnieder - $1 million
Juan Castro - $750,000
Clay Condrey - $650,000
Chris Snelling - $450,000
Kyle Kendrick - $445,000
Carlos Ruiz - $425,000
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Francisco Rosario - $395,000
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