And Now, How The Payroll Shapes Up

So in the past few days, Ruben Amaro Jr., Scott Proefrock and Co. have dwindled the long arbitration-eligible list to one. Of course, that one is the big one, Ryan Howard, but wasn’t he a shoo-in for a table discussion?

Here is the Phillies payroll for 2009:

C – Carlos Ruiz – 0.6 ML (proj)
C – Chris Coste – 0.5 ML (proj)
C – Ronny Paulino – 0.5 ML (proj)
IF – Ryan Howard – N/A
IF – Chase Utley – 11.0
IF – Pedro Feliz – 5.0
IF – Jimmy Rollins – 8.5
IF – Eric Bruntlett – 0.8
IF – Greg Dobbs – 1.15
OF – Raul Ibanez – 8.5
OF – Jayson Werth – 3.0
OF – Shane Victorino – 3.125
OF – Geoff Jenkins – 6.75
OF – Matt Stairs – 1.0
SP – Brett Myers – 12.0
SP – Adam Eaton – 8.5
SP – Jamie Moyer – 6.5
SP – Joe Blanton – 5.475
SP – Cole Hamels – 4.35
SP – Chan Ho Park – 2.5
SP – Kyle Kendrick – 0.5 ML (proj)
SP – JA Happ – 0.42 ML (proj)
RP – Brad Lidge – 11.5
RP – JC Romero – 4.0
RP – Scott Eyre – 2.0
RP – Ryan Madson – 2.0
RP – Chad Durbin – 1.635
RP – Clay Condrey – 0.65

The payroll of the 25-man roster, with a few additions (28 total), currently is $112.455M. This is before Ryan Howard. The 2008 payroll for the 25-man roster was $98.269M. A loss in arbitration for Howard would give the team a payroll of $126M; a win by Howard would make it $130M. Add in Jim Thome’s final $3M, and you’re approaching $135M.

Here are the current indicators for the 2010 Phillies payroll:

C – Carlos Ruiz – ARB 1st year (3)
C – Chris Coste – ARB 1st year (3)
C – Ronny Paulino – ARB 1st year (3)

Clearly a logjam at catcher. With Marson’s resurgence, don’t be surprised if two of these guys are gone by year’s end. The third (Paulino, in my mind), might get a one-year deal before arbitration.

IF – Ryan Howard – ARB 3rd year (4)
IF – Chase Utley – 15.0
IF – Pedro Feliz – 5.0 option (0.5 buyout)
IF – Jimmy Rollins – 7.5
IF – Eric Bruntlett – ARB 3rd year (3)
IF – Greg Dobbs – 1.35

Utley jumps up 4M. Considering the dearth of prospects at third base (and a possibility of a Jason Donald trade in 2009), they pick up Feliz’s option. The Phils could stay with Bruntlett another year, long as he performs well enough in 2009. Howard could be looking for 20M or so. So it might be the time to trade him.

OF – Raul Ibanez – 11.5
OF – Jayson Werth – 7.0
OF – Shane Victorino – ARB 2nd year (3)
OF – Geoff Jenkins – 7.5 option (1.25 buyout)

Ibanez and Werth make a combined 9M more than in 2009. Victorino will likely see a jump in salary (or a long-term deal). That said, the Phils won’t pick up Jenkins’ option, saving 6M (which is what Victorino would likely get with a multiyear deal in 2010). Look for young, non-arbitration talent to fill the holes, and by then, Michael Taylor and John Mayberry Jr. could be ready.

SP – Adam Eaton – 9.0 option (0.5 buyout)
SP – Jamie Moyer – 6.5
SP – Joe Blanton – ARB 3rd year (3)
SP – Cole Hamels – 6.65
SP – Kyle Kendrick – 0.7 ML (proj)
SP – JA Happ – 0.6 ML (proj)

Myers and Park come off the books, and the Phillies would be the dumbest franchise alive by picking up Eaton’s option. These three losses would save the Phillies 23M. Blanton may expect a raise to about 7M, or a long-term deal. By now Carrasco might enter the picture, but he’d only be making a half million. Happ and Kendrick wouldn’t be arbitration eligible yet. Still, I don’t expect a Hamels/Moyer/Blanton/Happ/Carrasco rotation. Re-signing Myers might cost about 10-14M, and that’s if 2009 is a good season.

RP – Brad Lidge – 11.5
RP – JC Romero – 4.0
RP – Ryan Madson – 4.5
RP – Chad Durbin – ARB 3rd year (3)
RP – Clay Condrey – ARB 2nd year (3)

Durbin would probably get 2M or so, if not a longer deal. Condrey would likely get close to a million. Eyre becomes a free agent, and might lean toward retirement. Obviously a starter could take a bullpen spot; moreover, a bunch of hopefuls will fight for spots. Still, expect a middle relief signing or two by 2010.

So, just as a very early indicator, the Phillies might be searching for starting pitching and maybe a first baseman in 2010, while dealing with nine potential arbitration cases. Expect that number to dwindle before the offseason.

I’ll have more about the offseason moves later.

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