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MLB Trade Rumors releases arbitration projections for 9 Phillies

Odubel Herrera’s future with. the Phillies is uncertain. (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors annually uses an algorithm to project how much each arbitration-eligible player is set to earn in the coming season. Below are a look at Swartz’s projections for the 9 arbitration-eligible players on the Philadelphia Phillies, and a breakdown on who could get non-tendered.

Odúbel Herrera – Projection: $11.6 Million

The Phillies have an $11.5 million club option on Herrera for 2022, and it would be shocking if they didn’t decline it, triggering a $2.5 million buyout for 2022 and a $1 million buyout for 2023. Herrera, though, doesn’t have six years of service time, which means the Phillies would still control Herrera after declining the option. If Herrera’s team wants anything like $11.6 million, the Phillies will non-tender him. They may regardless. However, because of his past domestic violence arrest and suspension, it’s hardly certain any of the other 29 teams will be interested in Herrera, who will turn 30 in December. If Dave Dombrowski and company don’t plan to make a run at Starling Marte in free agency, is it possible Herrera returns at a price significantly lower than $11.6 million and is part of the outfield mix in 2022? Sure.

Rhys Hoskins – Projection: $7.6 Million

As Dombrowski said in his year-end press conference, the Phillies could use another middle-of-the-order bat. They will also eagerly await the return of Hoskins, who had season-ending abdominal surgery in early September. Hoskins — slated to turn 29 before next opening day — had perhaps the most productive season of his career in 2021, homering 27 times and posting an .864 OPS in 107 games. Hoskins, who is represented by Scott Boras, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility and can become a free agent after the 2023 season.

Zach Eflin – Projection: $6.0 Million

Eflin is entering a contract year, and it’s not certain that he’ll be ready for the beginning of the regular season after having surgery on the patellar tendon in his right knee in September. In 164 2/3 innings over the last two years, Eflin has a 4.10 ERA and 3.58 FIP, meaning he’ll certainly be tendered a contract by the Phillies. But if he intends to land a lucrative multi-year deal next offseason, Eflin will need to stay healthy once he returns.

José Alvarado – Projection: $1.9 Million

For as frustrating as Alvarado’s lack of control can be, if he ever figures out how to consistently throw strikes, he has a repertoire that could make him one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The Phillies certainly aren’t in a position to give up on a relief pitcher with that type of ceiling, so Alvarado figures to be back for his age-27 season.

Ronald Torreyes – Projection: $1.6 Million

Torreyes is a Joe Girardi favorite and delivered some key hits in 2021, but it would be hard to justify bringing him back at this price. It’s possible that the 29-year-old infielder will be non-tendered but then sign a minor-league deal with the Phillies that includes an invite to major league spring training.

Andrew Knapp’s future with the Phillies is uncertain. (Cherly Pursell)

Andrew Knapp – Projection: $1.2 Million

Knapp is an excellent clubhouse presence, and pitchers really enjoy throwing to him. With that said, he slashed .152/.215/.214 in 145 at-bats in 2021. As J.T. Realmuto ages, the Phillies will need a backup catcher that they can rely on at the plate more consistently. Maybe the Phillies will avoid arbitration with Knapp at a price much lower than $1.2 million, but with Rafael Marchan and Logan O’Hoppe looming, one of the longest-tenured Phillies is a non-tender candidate.

Travis Jankowski – Projection: $900,000

While he can play all three outfield positions, Jankowski is more of an organization depth piece than someone you want to guarantee $1 million, give or take, to. Like Torreyes, Jankowski could be non-tendered but then sign a minor-league deal with an invite to major league spring training. If he’s back with the Phillies organization in 2022, Jankowski will most likely open the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Seranthony Dominguez – Projection: $800,000

Dominguez made one major league appearance during the final weekend of the season, but the reason that the Phillies tendered him a contract last offseason was that they hoped he would continue to build back from Tommy John surgery and be at full strength by the start of the 2022 season. Dominguez, who will turn 27 in November, flashed All-Star potential in 2018. The Phillies badly need that version of Dominguez to re-emerge next year.

Roman Quinn – Projection: $700,000

Quinn suffered a season-ending achilles injury in late May, calling into question his future both with the Phillies and in the sports. His speed is game-changing, but his injury history makes it difficult to continue dedicating a 40-man roster spot to in the cases that he is healthy.


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  1. Steve

    October 12, 2021 at 6:58 pm

    It will cost 21 million to retain both McCutchen, and Herrera.
    money better spent towards the cost of 1 quality Center Fielder
    HE MUST BE A solid defender with a solid bat, with no excuses.
    L.F. can come from within the organization. Plenty of choices.
    Marchan should start. Realmuto plays 1st base. Hoskins the D.H.
    TRADE SEGURA for the value he has brings back another missing
    piece. Club has a lot of middle infielders to fill in at 2B.

    • Eusebio Bultes

      October 14, 2021 at 1:22 pm

      DH. Is there going to be a do this year in the national league?

  2. Steve

    October 12, 2021 at 7:08 pm

    Segura, Gregarious need to be moved. Bohm might also. Even Nola can go in the right deal
    We cannot stay the same, unless a .500 club is the goal, along with 4th place. The G.M.
    needs to be BOLD! along with ownership going over the CAP. Need to pay for A center fielder
    Along with another Zack Wheeler like starter. preferably a left hand STARTER. all this needs
    to be done before signing a short stop. The Club has a load of middle infielders, use them!

  3. Lawrence freedman

    October 12, 2021 at 7:46 pm

    Philles gave another of holes to fill.Excluding hoskins playing first or if he is the dh then we need a new infield.Srgura has some value move him for younger minor league talent with potential. Its getting late must move now to benefit from harper.We must be better than 500 which means our pitching needs a radical improve.Free agency and hope we get it right.Dont spend 21 million on Herrera and McCutchen us that money on a centerfielder. This not rocket science,dombriski and ownership need to be bold,its been in years since a playoff appearance

  4. Michael Allred

    October 13, 2021 at 8:50 am

    All these moves, and other moves are pointless if the Phillies have lame duck position coaches. The pitching and hitting coaches are clearly boys in a man’s game. We could have a All Stars at every position, to include starting and relief pitching, and with the current coaching staff – we would be lucky to win 75 games.

    The Phillies rarely took pitches with the intention of working the pitcher. The Phillies never pitched strategically, the starters or the bullpen. When we did get on base, we just sat there; we rarely did anything to even seem aggressive or interested in scoring. We can blame it on players (and many do suck), we can blame payroll, we can blame the umpires, or we can blame whoever and whatever, but until the Phillies get legitimate and competent coaches – this will be who we are for years to come. This organization is one big sleepy, droopy headed yawn.

  5. Bob0303

    October 13, 2021 at 3:59 pm

    Segura needs to stay he is the best hitter on this team besides Harper when he is hot.Nola,Herrera,McCutchen,Hoskins and Gregorious need to be traded or not resigned which ever fits.They need 2 good starters and a true closer and a few other bullpen pieces.

  6. Martin Bryant

    October 18, 2021 at 7:46 am

    Concerning Segura – the argument for keeping him is that he was bell to bell the most consistent hitter we had after Harper. The argument for trading him is that Gregorius and Bohm have poor trade value and should/could rebound and we have too many infielders with Stott coming up. Segura (sold high) gives us the most value in what we have abundance of. If we re-signed Torreyes we’d start the year intending to have Stott at 2nd, Didi (for one year only) at short, and Bohm at 3rd and we’d have To to back everyone up. We need one or two more big bats – which should be a left fielder (letting McCutchen go) and a first baseman if they push a DH on the NL (which seems likely – and then we move Hoskins to DH). (Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman? – I know that’s dreaming the megabucks) We also need a new bullpen – perhaps re-signing Neris but letting everyone else go. We could take a starter and try to convert Nola or Eflin to relief. So if it takes trading 2B Jean for pitching for this formula to work and we get the hitting on the FA market, so be it.

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