Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors annually uses an algorithm to project how much each arbitration-eligible player is set to earn in the coming season. Below are a look at Swartz’s projections for the 9 arbitration-eligible players on the Philadelphia Phillies, and a breakdown on who could get non-tendered.
Odúbel Herrera – Projection: $11.6 Million
The Phillies have an $11.5 million club option on Herrera for 2022, and it would be shocking if they didn’t decline it, triggering a $2.5 million buyout for 2022 and a $1 million buyout for 2023. Herrera, though, doesn’t have six years of service time, which means the Phillies would still control Herrera after declining the option. If Herrera’s team wants anything like $11.6 million, the Phillies will non-tender him. They may regardless. However, because of his past domestic violence arrest and suspension, it’s hardly certain any of the other 29 teams will be interested in Herrera, who will turn 30 in December. If Dave Dombrowski and company don’t plan to make a run at Starling Marte in free agency, is it possible Herrera returns at a price significantly lower than $11.6 million and is part of the outfield mix in 2022? Sure.
Rhys Hoskins – Projection: $7.6 Million
As Dombrowski said in his year-end press conference, the Phillies could use another middle-of-the-order bat. They will also eagerly await the return of Hoskins, who had season-ending abdominal surgery in early September. Hoskins — slated to turn 29 before next opening day — had perhaps the most productive season of his career in 2021, homering 27 times and posting an .864 OPS in 107 games. Hoskins, who is represented by Scott Boras, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility and can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
Zach Eflin – Projection: $6.0 Million
Eflin is entering a contract year, and it’s not certain that he’ll be ready for the beginning of the regular season after having surgery on the patellar tendon in his right knee in September. In 164 2/3 innings over the last two years, Eflin has a 4.10 ERA and 3.58 FIP, meaning he’ll certainly be tendered a contract by the Phillies. But if he intends to land a lucrative multi-year deal next offseason, Eflin will need to stay healthy once he returns.
José Alvarado – Projection: $1.9 Million
For as frustrating as Alvarado’s lack of control can be, if he ever figures out how to consistently throw strikes, he has a repertoire that could make him one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The Phillies certainly aren’t in a position to give up on a relief pitcher with that type of ceiling, so Alvarado figures to be back for his age-27 season.
Ronald Torreyes – Projection: $1.6 Million
Torreyes is a Joe Girardi favorite and delivered some key hits in 2021, but it would be hard to justify bringing him back at this price. It’s possible that the 29-year-old infielder will be non-tendered but then sign a minor-league deal with the Phillies that includes an invite to major league spring training.
Andrew Knapp – Projection: $1.2 Million
Knapp is an excellent clubhouse presence, and pitchers really enjoy throwing to him. With that said, he slashed .152/.215/.214 in 145 at-bats in 2021. As J.T. Realmuto ages, the Phillies will need a backup catcher that they can rely on at the plate more consistently. Maybe the Phillies will avoid arbitration with Knapp at a price much lower than $1.2 million, but with Rafael Marchan and Logan O’Hoppe looming, one of the longest-tenured Phillies is a non-tender candidate.
Travis Jankowski – Projection: $900,000
While he can play all three outfield positions, Jankowski is more of an organization depth piece than someone you want to guarantee $1 million, give or take, to. Like Torreyes, Jankowski could be non-tendered but then sign a minor-league deal with an invite to major league spring training. If he’s back with the Phillies organization in 2022, Jankowski will most likely open the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Seranthony Dominguez – Projection: $800,000
Dominguez made one major league appearance during the final weekend of the season, but the reason that the Phillies tendered him a contract last offseason was that they hoped he would continue to build back from Tommy John surgery and be at full strength by the start of the 2022 season. Dominguez, who will turn 27 in November, flashed All-Star potential in 2018. The Phillies badly need that version of Dominguez to re-emerge next year.
Roman Quinn – Projection: $700,000
Quinn suffered a season-ending achilles injury in late May, calling into question his future both with the Phillies and in the sports. His speed is game-changing, but his injury history makes it difficult to continue dedicating a 40-man roster spot to in the cases that he is healthy.
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