Phillies Nuggets: Final Opening Day lineup projection

Pencils down.

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves for Opening Day Friday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s the fourth and final projection of what manager Rob Thomson’s lineup will look like against Braves ace Spencer Strider.

No. 1: Kyle Schwarber, DH

For all the bellyaching, Schwarber has an .840 career OPS in 1,609 career plate appearances out of the top spot in the lineup. The Phillies have made the NLCS in consecutive years with Schwarber leading off. How bad can it really be? That doesn’t mean he’ll lead off 162 games this season, but it’s where he’ll hit to start the season.

The bigger issue than where Schwarber hits is getting off to a quicker start. He has a .745 career OPS in March/April, as opposed to .940 in June. There has to be some middle ground there.

No. 2: Trea Turner, SS

Between 2020 and 2022, Turner hit .316 with an .877 OPS while playing for the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers. That’s what earned him an 11-year/$300 million deal with the Phillies. There are legitimate questions about his ability to remain at shortstop over the long run defensively, but Turner’s bat (and legs) are his meal ticket. In his second season in red pinstripes, Turner needs to return to peak form offensively.

No. 3: Bryce Harper, 1B

Harper finished last season with 21 home runs, 72 RBIs and a .900 OPS in 126 games, despite not hitting a single home run in 95 at-bats during the month of June as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. If Harper plays a full season for the first time since 2021, the two-time NL MVP could very well compete for the honor as the senior circuit’s top player for the third time, which would put him in rarified air.

No. 4: J.T. Realmuto, C

It makes sense to have a right-handed hitter here. Realmuto is the pick in this projection because he hit fourth frequently during Grapefruit League play when the Phillies had their full compliment of stars playing.

Even if Realmuto isn’t at the height of his powers anymore, no one is denying that he’s still one of the better offensive catchers the sport has to offer. But when you consider he hit just .205 in 127 at-bats with runners in scoring position a season ago, there’s definitely a case to be made that Nick Castellanos or Alec Bohm would be better in this spot.

Is it possible the thinking from the Phillies is that the No. 6 spot is actually going to get more opportunities with runners in scoring position than cleanup?

No. 5: Bryson Stott, 2B

You typically think of a five-hole hitter as being someone with more home run power than Stott, but he has world-class ability to work the count and could compete with Turner and Harper for the highest batting average on the team this season. Having someone that’s going to put the ball in play — and will battle, even if he ends up recording an out — come up in high-leverage situations has to be very stressful for opposing pitchers.

No. 6: Alec Bohm, 3B

For as much as Bohm struggled hitting cleanup last postseason, the feeling here is he might still be the best fit in that spot. That aside, he’s going to get plenty of chances to drive in runs at this spot. Just putting the ball in the grass will score Realmuto and Stott from second base, and a double will likely plate them from first base.

Bohm led the NL in double plays grounded into a year ago at 23, something he needs to cut down on regardless of where he’s hitting. But he also hit .344 in 151 at-bats with runners in scoring position a year ago, which led to a career-high 97 RBIs. Hitting in this lineup should give Bohm a real chance at driving in over 100 runs for the first time in his career.

No. 7: Nick Castellanos, RF

This feels low for someone that’s a two-time All-Star, and can carry a lineup when he’s hot. But last postseason illustrated that for as hot as Castellanos can get, he can go ice-cold just as quickly.

It was awkward last September when the Phillies moved a struggling Castellanos all the way down to eighth in the lineup less than two months after he appeared in the midsummer classic. Perhaps there’s an argument to be made for just leaving him at seventh. If he’s on a hot streak, then he’s overqualified and emblematic of how deep the Phillies lineup is. And if he’s struggling, well, there won’t really be a debate about moving him down in the lineup because he’s already hitting seventh.

No. 8: Brandon Marsh, LF

Marsh will be the primary left fielder in 2024, particularly when the Phillies are facing right-handed starting pitching like they will be on Opening Day against Strider.

But the Phillies will see tough lefties on both Saturday and Sunday in the forms of Max Fried and Chris Sale. That will be an interesting test of just how comfortable the Phillies are with Marsh against left-handed pitching. Marsh hit .229 with a .717 OPS across 96 at-bats against lefties a year ago, which was quite the improvement over .188 with a .486 OPS the prior year.

Still, the Phillies have Whit Merrifield available, and he hit .405 across 42 at-bats during Spring Training. He’ll probably push Marsh to the bench in one of those two matchups.

No. 9: Johan Rojas, CF

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said at the conclusion of Spring Training that the Phillies are “a better club” with Rojas on the big-league roster. It’s hard to argue with that considering he posted 15 defensive runs saved and six outs above average. But while the Phillies don’t need Rojas to hit .320, it will be interesting to see how low they are willing to go with Rojas in terms of offensive output. If he’s hitting .130 at the end of April, will they be more open to sending him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley?

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