ESPN’s Law Releases List of Top 10 Phils Prospects – Phillies Nation
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ESPN’s Law Releases List of Top 10 Phils Prospects

http://mobile.milb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_605388.jpgKeith Law must have been really, really busy over the last few days.

Law released his Top 10s by organization today. The Phillies list produced mostly familiar names but there were a few surprises for the organization he ranked 27th in MLB. More surprisingly, while Law has a poor outlook for the Phillies in 2013, he believes the Phillies could rocket into the Top 20 very easily with big years from any of their high potential players.

Valuing Future v. Current Value

Other lists like Baseball America and Minor League Ball‘s placed seemed to more evenly distribute future value versus immediate value. Other than Adam Morgan, who Law believes can contribute to the Phillies in 2013 and ranks number one, and Jonathan Pettibone, ranks seventh, Law’s list features of a lot of the Phillies lottery-ticket type players in low levels who have high potential.

Shortstop Roman Quinn, 19, who Law identifies as a big-time sleeper, is found at number three, while third baseman Maikel Franco, 20, is ranked fourth. Law believes the Phillies system can move fast, well into the top 20 should Quinn, Franco, and pitchers Kenny Giles, 22, ranked ninth, and Shane Watson, 19, a narrow miss, make large jumps in 2013.

Law gives a very positive outlook for 2015+ in terms of bringing talent to the Major Leagues but does note that the missing prospect links leave 2013 and 2014 sparse with MLB-ready talent.

Position Player Concerns

Law notes that other than third baseman Cody Asche, 22, who he has at eighth with an MLB ETA of 2015, the Phillies are rather top-heavy with pitching. He says Darin Ruf, unranked, can be a useful bench bat but does not feel translates into an every day player.

Greene = Found

Law was the only prospector to rank Larry Greene in his top 10. Greene, ranked exactly tenth, does not have text related to him in the list.

7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. hk

    February 7, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    Ian,

    Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com also has Greene in his top 10, actually at #6. Interestingly, Mayo has Adam Morgan at #7 and Ethan Martin at #2.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_players

    • Publius

      February 7, 2013 at 2:12 pm

      Mayo’s MLB list is usually the worst of all these lists. Law, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus all do a lot better job than Mayo does.

      • hk

        February 7, 2013 at 5:13 pm

        Thanks. Are there any others worth reading? Maybe Marc Hulet from Fangraphs?

      • Ian Riccaboni

        February 7, 2013 at 5:16 pm

        I like his a lot. Mayo is usually a little off the mark – he definitely caters to casual baseball observers.

  2. Ken Bland

    February 9, 2013 at 4:44 pm

    This doesn’t pertain to this topic, nor does there seem a headline under which it fits. Apologies to the overly sensitive as applicable.

    Here’s a sampling of what we may see a fair amount of over the next few weeks as camps will be full acros the baseball landscape in 1 week. Not only in format. by the sport, but in specific, by the division.

    2013 NL East Predicted Standings

    Washington Nationals 98-64 .605 —

    Atlanta Braves 95-67 .586 3

    Phillies 88-74 .543 10

    NY Mets 75-87 .463 15

    Miami Marlins 65-97 .401 33

    Despite some justified reconsidered thinking off still unsigned free agents, or perhaps a trade defying recent spring trends of lack of a headline deal, it’s doubtful too many would stray too far off this and feel comfortable if they are the predicting sort. Many out of 10 would at least say it’s reasonable.

    Sort of.

    At the outset of the NFL playoffs, more precisely, Mike Florio, of Pro Football Talk, and NBC Sports Network predicted the 4 games, and said straightfacedly Indy would beat Baltimore, Seattle would beat Washington, Minnie would best Green Bay, and the Bengals would beat Houston. Outrageous predictions are rare in the NFL playoffs, but Florio’s picks were for 4 road clubs to win the 4 games. Perhaps he was married to his convictions, but sometimes, if you take your predictions, and check them against history, you see how unlikely you are of being right. At least it seems a very safe assumption that no wild card weekend has ever produced 4 road winners.

    And there is correlation between history of the NL East in that regard. The forecaster’s guessed standings above are a replicate of last year. Since 1969, once, and only once have the NL East standings copycatted their way to the next year’s finish. In the Nats first year out of Montreal, 2005, the standings in the division were identical to ott4 (what a pun!). And in guess mode, I’d venture to submit that across the games other divisions, a similar path is told, but that’s conjecture, and a highly likely one division sample of enormous statement.

    So given your most objective view, although this lineup looks practical, safe, reasonable and grounds to keep you looking halfway smart, at least in the spring, respect history, and beware that history says no. Washington, contrary to public opinion, is no lock to win the division. The 1987 Mets would vouch for that as a lock that lost, but as heavy favorites, let’s be reasonable and reduce it to would the Phils finish ahead of the Braves, or behind the Mets to further entrench histpric norm. Believe as you wish. The generalization of history isn’t as determining as on the field play, but it’s good reason to doubletake on the thought of the standings repeating..

  3. Double Trouble Del

    February 9, 2013 at 8:42 pm

    Before anointing an albeit strong Nationals team the division champs, I give, for your consideration, the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays.

    • Ken Bland

      February 9, 2013 at 9:43 pm

      Good point. Looking back at the way their heralded staff turned in numbers in ’09, thwe dropoff makes sense (for one thing)….ERA’s don’t look so good, and Price didn’t carry through on the hype of his short ’08 debut that next year.

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