Aaron Nola was stuck this year.
Too many home runs. Too many two-strike hits. Too many big innings. Not enough strikes.
He can’t take back the regular season numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the third-highest in a full season for his career. His strikeout to walk ratio dropped from an ungodly 8.10 in 2022 to 4.49. The 32 home runs allowed are a career high.
But three starts into the postseason, Nola has re-written the narrative on his season. All those outings that went south in the fifth inning and all those games where he didn’t have his curveball laid the foundation for the necessary changes he needed to make to be successful in October.
All the problems that plagued him during the regular season have seemingly gone away. He has not allowed a home run during the postseason. He has 19 strikeouts to two walks. His ERA is 0.96 through three starts in October.
It’s a pretty remarkable turnaround and the biggest difference is in the run game. Opponents stole 21 bases against Nola in the regular season. His 81% stolen base against percentage was significantly higher than the league average of 74%.
For years, his only answer to stopping the run game was to throw over to first and have faith in J.T. Realmuto’s ability to throw out any base stealer. With pitchers only allowed two disengagements per at-bat, Nola’s ability to pepper runners with throw overs was taken away this season.
It took some time, but Nola needed to find a better way to maintain control with runners on. It was clear at times that he was too occupied with the runner on and not the batter at the plate. It impacted his ability to execute pitches. Bloop base hits quickly became four-run innings and an early hook.
It’s why Nola began implementing a slide step to quicken his motion to the plate. He experimented with one earlier in his career, but after battling injuries, Nola shelved it and focused on cleaning up his arm path.
“I feel like once the pitch clock came, it made things a little more challenging because those years I really did rely on holding the ball a lot and picking over a lot,” Nola said prior to Game 1. “So obviously guys are stealing and bases are bigger. And I knew I could incorporate what I used to do back in 2017. I just had to do it and get comfortable with it again.”
It took some convincing because Nola’s biggest priority is staying healthy and he did not want to implement anything that he thought could impede his ability to make every start. But the Phillies have found a slide step that works for Nola and he’s worked hard to perfect it.
He began ramping up usage of the slide step near the end of September and it’s now a more natural part of his motion in the stretch.
Leadoff hitter Corbin Carroll, who stole 54 bases during the regular season, reached base safely on an error by Trea Turner to begin the game.
He pitched using a slide step for the remainder of the inning. Carroll, who has looked uncomfortable in limited action on the bases, did not take a big lead. Nola threw over to first twice with Tommy Pham at the plate. Despite Nola having two disengagements against him, Carroll stayed put on the final pitch. Pham struck out looking on a sinker.
But Nola’s best remedy for controlling the run game is not allowing any baserunners at all. Arizona only had four baserunners all night against Nola.
Nola credits a mechanical tweak for his recent success. He says he has been “trying to step more straight to the plate” and “keeping his shoulders squared.”
“I feel like that’s helped me command all my pitches and kind of get rid of all of the pulled fastballs and changeups and a lot of arm side stuff,” Nola said.
As Pedro Martinez pointed out on the TBS Postgame Show, Nola also, whether purposefully or not, shortened his windup. It’s possible a crisper delivery with less emphasis on his signature leg kick messed with the D-Backs’ timing at the plate.
Regardless of what his windup delivery looked like, hitters looked lost against Nola in the box.
He mixed all of his pitches. His fastball had life, his sinker hugged the corner of the plate, his changeup caught Arizona hitters off guard and the curveball was nasty. Four of his seven strikeouts were called third strikes. All four of those called third strikes were pitches right down the middle of the plate.
“He’s really just being unpredictable and getting ahead of guys and being able to put them away when he is ahead,” Realmuto said after the game.
Nola is a fantastic pitcher, but his biggest character flaw is stubbornness. His rough walk year signified a need for change and while it took some time, the changes are here.
If he continues to pitch well, Nola will parlay those changes into a big pay day. There’s no need to contemplate whether or not this was Nola’s last home start as a Phillie ever. It technically could be if the Phillies go on to sweep the series and the Rangers advance out of the American League, but the Phillies do not have a history of letting players they desperately want back leave in free agency.
If the Phillies want him back, they will pay up. If they needed to see more to convince themselves that the future — not just the present — is bright with Nola, Tuesday’s outing was a good indicator.
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