The longer you’re around baseball, the more you realize that things have a way of figuring themselves out.
Spencer Turnbull was tremendous for the Phillies in an extra-innings win in St. Louis Monday, limiting the Cardinals to just two hits over six shutout innings, while also striking out six batters. Utilizing his new sweeper, Turnbull has looked excellent over his first two starts with the Phillies, recording 13 strikeouts and allowing zero earned runs across 11 innings.
Turnbull, of course, wasn’t supposed to open the season in the starting rotation. He was signed to be a long man, and the first option to make a spot start if any of the Phillies five starters went down with an injury. That happened quicker than expected, with Taijuan Walker opening the season on the injured list with a right should impingement. Naturally, Turnbull’s quick start has led to questions of what the Phillies will do once Walker returns.
The reality is that the Phillies are probably weeks away from having to decide that.
Walker is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday, but it’s not as though he’s only going to be making one or two outings before returning to the Phillies. According to MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki, the Phillies plan to have Walker throw 60 pitches Thursday, with his “pitch count jumping in 15-pitch increments after that.” Manager Rob Thomson said the Phillies would like Walker to throw over 100 pitches in a rehab outing before coming back to the majors, which Zolecki correctly points out would probably mean he makes four rehab appearances and returns to the Phillies in early May.
And that’s if all goes well. Walker could have a minor or more extended setback during one of the rehab appearances. No one is wishing that on him, but building back up after an injured list stint isn’t always an exact science.
If all does go well and Walker is back in early May, then the Phillies will have a decision to make.
It’s hard to imagine Walker — who is signed through the 2026 season and struggled mightily in his first inning of work a year ago — going to the bullpen.
Cristopher Sánchez has some experience in the bullpen, but he has a 3.56 ERA over 108 2/3 innings since the start of the 2022 season, so he’s earned a spot in the starting rotation. (He’s also out of minor-league options, in case you were wondering.)
There’s a case for the Phillies using a six-man rotation for a while once Walker returns. The rash of pitcher injuries around the sport serve as a reminder of how much of a competitive advantage it is that the Phillies have been able to keep Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez from having extended absences over the last few years. Not running them into the ground during the regular season — especially when you expect to have a third consecutive October run — could help the Phillies to continue to protect three of their most important players.
It’s also possible over the next month that Turnbull comes back down to earth. That would make the decision to move him back to the bullpen — where the Phillies could use someone who can occasionally take down multiple innings — relatively easy. His new sweeper would play out of the bullpen as well.
Even if Turnbull continues to pitch well, the Phillies do have to be careful with how much they push the 31-year-old righty. Turnbull hasn’t pitched more than 60 innings in a season since 2019. He missed the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He pitched 31 innings at the MLB level in 2023. Turnbull isn’t going to log 150 innings this year, regardless of how good he looks. Protecting him from himself — and preserving his ability to be an option as a No. 4 starter for the Phillies in the postseason — might be something the Phillies have to do at some point in 2024.
The early returns on the one-year/$2 million deal the Phillies gave Turnbull are strong. If in a month the Phillies have to decide on what to do with him when Walker is ready to return, that’s a good problem to have. And probably one that will sort itself out in the interim.
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Bawb Eff
April 11, 2024 at 6:30 am
Why can’t Turnbull pitch 150 innings?
It’s amazing…Steve Carlton pitched 295.2 innings when he was 37, lol. Now when dudes go over 150 it’s like “uh-oh, he’s gonna get tired out!” Maybe the reason all these pitchers are going down with injuries is because they don’t pitch ENOUGH, not too much?