In baseball, you can always expect the unexpected. Like the Tampa Bay Rays rattling off 12 straight wins to start the season (and counting). Or St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker tying the longest hitting streak to start a career by a player aged 20 or younger since 1900 (also still counting). Or the Miami Marlins, playing 4,700 games in franchise history without a single player hitting for the cycle, until Luis Arráez does it in just his 12th game with the team.
Because of course these things happened. That’s baseball for you. And they help explain the wondrous absurdity of the sport.
But sometimes, wacky statistical events also help explain the patterns and behaviors behind the sport. So while some of the early season numbers are just weird, others could be meaningful and predictive.
Which numbers tell the story of the Philadelphia Phillies season so far? Let’s take a look.
1.280
That’s Brandon Marsh’s OPS, the best on the team and good for seventh in the league. His OPS with the Phillies last season was .773. For his career, he’s at .704. Marsh already has four doubles, two triples and two home runs on the season, with a .407 batting average. The really crazy thing? In the very small sample size of 11 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Marsh has four hits (.364 batting average) and four RBIs. This was a batter who wasn’t supposed to hit lefties and is still being platooned in centerfield against the tougher ones. It looks like hitting coach Kevin Long’s swing changes have had a positive effect, to say the least. The platoon situation won’t last much longer if Marsh keeps putting up numbers anywhere close to that.
1.33 vs. 5.63
That’s the combined ERA for Bailey Falter and Matt Strahm (1.33) compared to the combined ERA for Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler and Taijuan Walker (5.63). The first two were considered longshots to even make the rotation at the outset of Spring Training, and were only guaranteed spots because of injuries to Ranger Suárez and Andrew Painter. The latter three were expected to anchor one of the better rotations in baseball. Nola and Wheeler were considered Cy Young candidates. They still might be, but based on the first few times through the rotation, the outlook isn’t rosy. Thankfully, Falter and Strahm have stepped up to give the team two exceptional starts apiece.
7
That’s how many times Nick Castellanos has walked so far this season through 12 games. Last season, he walked a total of 29 times in 136 games. He is clearly seeing the ball better and being way more selective at the plate, which is a big reason why he is batting .295 so far this year with an .869 OPS, a team-high 11 runs scored and a league-high eight doubles.
8
That’s how many outs the Phillies have made on the basepaths so far this season, or .67 each game. Last year they made a total of 36 outs on the basepaths (OOB) in the regular season, or just .22 per game. So far in 2023, the average Major League team has 3.7 OOB’s — less than half of the Phillies’ total. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals haven’t run themselves into a single OOB. Somewhere, Davey Lopes is cringing.
40.5
That’s how many home runs Alec Bohm is on pace to hit. After swatting just 13 last year, he’s got three already this year. They left the bat at an average of 105.5 miles per hour and traveled an average of 408 feet. Overall, he is batting .333 with a .388 on base percentage, a .578 slugging percentage and a .966 OPS. After having a pseudo-breakout year in 2022 and putting on extra muscle this off season, Bohm has looked the part of a star early in 2023.
11
That’s how many strike outs José Alvarado had against his first 13 batters. Despite giving up the game-tying homer on Wednesday afternoon, his stuff has been nothing short of electric so far this season. He is regularly hitting 100 and even 101 mph on the radar gun and effectively mixing in his cutter, sinker, fastball and curveball, keeping guys off balance and out of sync. Apparently, he has recovered from giving up the game winning home run to Yordan Álvarez in the World Series. For now, he is as sure a thing in the bullpen as the Phillies have.
.407 vs .193
That’s the combined batting average for Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh compared to the combined average of JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber. While the aforementioned Marsh is crushing the ball, Stott has been lacing it all over the field as well. He has at least one hit in every game and two hits in most of them, and he is tied with the Cardinals’ Walker for the longest active hitting streak in the majors. Meanwhile, Realmuto and Schwarber are a combined 17 for 88 with OPS’s of .595 and .667, respectively. That’s not what you want out of the second and third batters in the lineup. They do have four home runs between them, with three coming from Schwarber, who started ice cold before picking it up of late. But you never would have guessed just how much more production you’d get out of the two 25-year-olds than the highly-paid veterans.
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What do any of these numbers mean? Probably not much. Falter will eventually give up an earned run. Neither Marsh nor Stott will finish the season above .400. Castellanos will not draw 100 walks. But they might also mean that once the Phillies’ big guns like Nola, Wheeler, Realmuto and Schwarber all get on track, good things could happen.
All we really know is that as the season goes along, we should expect more unexpected storylines to unfold.
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